WNBA Finals Preview: Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics

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PerSources Contributor
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WNBA Finals Preview

The WNBA Finals begin Friday night, featuring the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics. Both teams are coming off a winner-take-all Game 5 this past Tuesday night that saw the teams defeat the Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream, respectively.

Both teams feature some of the brightest stars in the league (young and old). They could dig graves with how much depth these squads have.

A best-of-five series that will determine who hoists the championship trophy begins. Let’s take a look at what can be expected.

The Facts
  • This is the first Finals appearance in Washington Mystics franchise history, the Storm’s third (first Finals appearance since 2010).
  • Seattle finished with the league’s best record (26-8), securing the top seed.
  • Washington finished with the league’s third-best record (22-12) to secure the league’s third seed.
  • The Seattle Storm won the regular season series 2-1.
How They Got Here

Note: The WNBA has a different playoffs format than the NBA. 

  • The WNBA’s playoff teams are decided by winning percentage, not conferences. In other words, the eight teams that hold the best winning percentage advance to the playoffs, regardless of conference.
  • Furthermore, the league’s playoff structure is way different than the NBA’s. For starters, the top two seeds receive a bye until the semifinals. Put differently, there’s more incentive to win, which discourages tanking.
    • In addition, the third and fourth seeds receive a bye until the second round. Again, more incentive to win.
    • Finally, the teams are re-seeded after each round. To the best of my understanding, the re-seeding is based solely off the results of each round.

After the bye, the Seattle Storm were matched up with the Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner-led Phoenix Mercury. As mentioned earlier, the series went the distance with the Storm emerging victorious, thanks to Masked Sue Bird (she broke her nose during the series):

The Washington Mystics played the Los Angeles Sparks in a single-elimination game on August 23, where they dismantled the opposition 96-64. The Mystics would go on to put the Dream to sleep in five games, thanks in large part to Washington’s stars.

Speaking of….

The Stars

As Matt Moore of the Action Network so eloquently put, these are the headliners of the WNBA’s main event.

 

Elena Delle Donne 

The 2015 WNBA MVP, Delle Donne (guard/forward), is going to be matched up against this year’s MVP, Breanna Stewart (forward). Here’s what the WNBA highlighted from Delle Donne’s season:

Started in 25 out of 25 games played…led team in minutes per game (30.3)…also led team in points per game (19.7)…scored 10+ points in 10 games and 20+ points in 13 games…scored a season-high 37 points against Seattle on 9/1, including setting a career high in three-pointers made (6)…second on team in rebounds per game (6.8), including a career-high 16 boards against Connecticut on 8/29…recorded five double-doubles…averaged 1.4 blocks per game…averaged careers highs in free throw percentage (.953) and field goal percentage (.494)…

Breanna Stewart

(MVP Highlights) 

Affectionately nicknamed “Stewie,” the former first overall pick has done nothing but ball since entering the league. A career 20.0 PPG scorer, Stewart also holds career averages of 8.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. She’s also upped her three-point percentage from 33.8% her rookie season to 41.5% this season. She’s a threat from every spot on the floor. Washington is going to have their hands full.

 

Kristi Toliver

Kristi Toliver (that’s one L in her last name, she gives out the other one to the opposition) signed with the Mystics in free agency in 2017 after winning a title with the Los Angeles Sparks. The combo guard helped the Mystics to advance to the third-round last postseason before being swept by the eventual champions, the Minnesota Lynx. While she won’t get her chance at revenge against the Lynx this year, she’s been on a tear.

Toliver dropped 41 points over the past two games to help the Mystics dispatch the second-seeded Atlanta Dream with Elena Delle Donne sidelined with a bone bruise for one game (more on that later).

 

Sue Bird

Last, but certainly not least, Sue Bird. Her stellar fourth quarter the other night was already highlighted, but Sue Bird is one of the greatest basketball players of all-time. Here are some of her accolades:

  • 2x WNBA Champion
  • 2x National Champion (UConn)
  • 4x Olympic Gold Medalist
  • 3x FIBA Gold Medalist
  • All-time WNBA assist leader
  • Former first overall pick
  • All-Time WNBA leader in career starts (has never come off the bench)
  • 5x WNBA First Team
  • 10x WNBA All-Star
  • 2002 Sportswoman of the Year

Those are just the stars. Just like every game, there’s more than just the star power.

Storylines To Watch
  • Elena Delle Donne is still playing with a bone bruise. A quick look at her averages in the playoffs will show Delle Donne is averaging 21.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game on .464/.391/.963 shooting. Granted the injury only occurred on August 28, but with all due respect to Elizabeth Williams and Jessica Breland (of the Atlanta Dream), Delle Donne hasn’t guarded a player of Stewart’s caliber recently. This matchup could decide the series.
  • Can Atkins continue her stellar play on the WNBA’s biggest stage? Rookie Ariel Atkins has been nothing short of a revelation for the Washington Mystics. She earned a starting role just five games into the season and hasn’t looked back, finishing the regular season as the team’s third-leading scorer. In the playoffs, Atkins has been the Mystics’ second-leading scorer and third (technically second) best three-point shooter. She’ll likely be tasked with guarding Sue Bird and Jewell Lloyd (another great player) most of the game, so she’ll have her hands full.
  • Whose bench will show up? In Washington’s series against Atlanta, the Mystics were outscored by 21 points over the course of the series in terms of bench production. Seattle was a +60 in points off the bench. That’s not to say things will be the same in the Finals, but Washington’s bench only cleared 20 points twice; including two games of just 11 points. Seattle only got four points off the bench in Game 1 against Phoenix, but scored 17+ in the other four games.

Often times a team’s X-factor(s) come off the bench, and the picks are no different here.

X-Factors

 

Washington: Tianna Hawkins

I like to say that a team’s star(s) can win the game, but benches can make or break the team. For Washington, they should be hoping Hawkins helps with more of the former.

Hawkins has only jumped one spot (sixth) on the scoring leaderboard from her regular season spot (seventh), but she’s shown flashes of being just what Washington needs to help match Seattle’s size and speed.

In Washington’s series-clinching victory over the Dream, Hawkins had a solid game off the bench with 17 points, three three-pointers made, two rebounds (both offensive), and two assists. She also shot an efficient 75% from the floor, going 6-for-8. It’s her previous performances that leave much to be desired.

In the series against Atlanta (in order), Hawkins scored 11, 0, 7, 0, and (again) 17 points.

For what it’s worth, Hawkins scored 10 points in Washington’s lone game against the Sparks.

It’s not a question of if Hawkins possesses the scoring ability, but if she can do it on a consistent basis.

 

Seattle: Sami Whitcomb

The 29-year-old rookie (for more on her story, ESPN did a feature early on the in the season) for Seattle only played in three games in the series against Phoenix, but showed why Seattle gave her a shot in Game 5:

Whitcomb finished with 11 points and two made three-pointers, but it’s her three-point prowess that really opens up Seattle’s offense. Barring injury, Whitcomb will be coming off the bench, but she’s also one of the Storm’s best playmakers.

Whether Whitcomb dishes more than she swishes remains to be seen, but it’s her dual-threat skill-set that will be the difference in how much of the offensive load the 37-year-old Sue Bird will have to carry.

 

Advantages

A duo that understands what it takes to win a championship. A roster full of players with minimal playoff experience. This is the dichotomy between the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics.

This section’s purpose is not to slander other players, but merely take a brief look at who I believe has the advantage in the “normal” roster comparisons.

Point Guard:

Seattle (Sue Bird)

Natasha Cloud is a fine starting point guard, but her lack of experience coupled with her slightly alarming amount of turnovers this postseason (2.6 a game) pales in comparison to a player of Bird’s acumen.

Shooting Guard: 

Washington (Kristi Toliver)

Lloyd is a veteran like Toliver, but Toliver has a more well-rounded game. This is probably the most underrated matchup of the series despite the name recognition for both players.

Small Forward: 

Washington (Ariel Atkins)

The rookie edges out the more experienced Alysha Clark. Atkins’ seemingly endless energy and pesky defense give her the advantage here.

Power Forward: 

Toss-up (Elena Delle Donne versus Breanna Stewart)

Yes, I’m copping out, and no, I don’t care.

Elena Delle Donne is a top-five player in the WNBA and has been worth every player Washington traded to acquire her back in 2017.

Breanna Stewart was a number one pick, won four straight titles at UConn, and has improved her game every season since she’s come into the league.

An argument can truly be made for both.

Center: 

Seattle (slight edge to Natasha Howard)

This is Mystics’ center LaToya Sanders’ first trip back to the postseason since 2015, while it’s Howard’s fifth straight playoff run. Experience doesn’t necessarily equal skill, but Howard’s (more consistent) offense gives her the edge in what should be a gritty series.

Bench: 

Seattle

Rookie Jordin Canada has been the perfect spark plug off the bench for Seattle, already averaging 8.2 points per game in the playoffs in her young career. Seattle also has the aforementioned Sami Whitcomb and forward Crystal Langhorne.

Tierra Ruffin-Pratt will be looking to do the same for Washington, along with bench mainstays Myisha Hines-Allen and Aerial Powers.

Seattle appears to have a little more lightning in multiple bottles than the Mystics.

Final Prediction: 

Seattle 3, Washington 2

@_Mason_Jar 

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