Playing chess
After a hectic week of completed trades that nobody expected, it’s important to look beyond this season for many of them. While the Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, and Milwaukee Bucks showed that they’re in win-now mode, the likes of the Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicks, and the Los Angeles Clippers have shown themselves to be playing the long-term game. How will this affect this summer’s free agency?
With the state of certain franchises coming into question in recent seasons, it seems like many under-performing franchises are banking on both this summer’s free agency and also its draft class. The measures brought in by Adam Silver to reduce tanking has had little impact so far, with many teams trying to one-up (or more correctly, one-down) their contenders in the race to the top draft pick.
Los Angeles Clippers
Big name players
The aims of the Clippers, Knicks, Mavericks, and even the Lakers are clear – attract two superstars this summer. The Clippers are already the reported favorites to land Kawhi Leonard, while the likes of Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis, and Kristaps Porzingis all had Doc Rivers’ team on their list of preferred destinations when they requested their trades. Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, and Kyrie Irving may all be up for grabs in this summer’s free agency.
The big (as if those guys are role players) name for this summer, however, is Kevin Durant. When KD was a free agent last time in 2016, he gave the Clippers a courtesy visit. He didn’t want to associate himself with the dysfunctional outfit that Lob City was at the time. This moment marked the beginning of the end for that group of players, as Chris Paul blamed Coach Rivers for KD’s rejection. Since then, the Clippers have placed fourth and 10th in the West and won’t make the playoffs this year. Yet, they’re one of the hottest destinations in the league.
The Jerry West Effect
There’s one man, and one man only, that we can credit for this success: Jerry West. Since joining as an executive a year-and-a-half ago, the Clippers have traded away Blake “Clipper for life” Griffin to the Pistons, traded away the three players they got from that deal, and still were playoff contenders until Wednesday when they traded Tobias Harris to the 76ers. From the Blake Griffin trade, the Clippers now have three good young players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet, Ivica Zubac, two more first-round picks, and two second-round picks, as well as Wilson Chandler, JaMychal Green. and Garrett Temple.
When Jerry West became GM of the Lakers, he had the exact same strategy.
West signed decent players to short-term deals and molded them into a functional franchise. He used the cap space to steal an unsettled Shaquille O’Neal away from the Orlando Magic in that summer’s free agency. He traded for Kobe Bryant before he played a single game; when nobody really knew what he was about. Although nobody expects the same outcome, West also drafted a lesser-known Jerome Robinson when the Clippers could’ve risked Michael Porter Jr.
Where to next?
Despite all the trades this week, the Clippers have Montrezl Harrell having a career year, and now they have the platform to allow their young guns to shine, their own first-round pick (provided they miss the playoffs) and two maximum contract slots. Furthermore, they have the assets to attempt a trade for almost any player in the league (i.e. Anthony Davis).
The Clippers have a game to play this summer. They have the flexibility to chase anyone in the league whether they’re a free agent or demanding a trade. They could surprise us entirely with the options they take in the offseason, but knowing Jerry West, they’ll make it work.
New York Knicks
Wait, they did something good?
The New York Knicks were looking at a challenging summer. The franchise in disarray, their best player injured, and a god awful contract. Not only was Hardaway Jr.’s contract a problem, but Porzingis would be demanding a max deal this summer. Instead of biting the bullet for the sake of their franchise player, they traded him away for Dennis Smith Jr. and some useful pieces. In the process, they dumped Hardaway’s contract and also gave away Courtney Lee and Trey Burke. While this looked terrible at the time, it gives NY some leverage going into the summer’s free agency.
The Knicks only have $35 million in contracts for next season. This gives them the opportunity to sign two max contracts as well as some role players. They have good young talent in Kevin Knox, DSJ, Alonzo Trier, Mitchell Robinson, and Frank Ntilikina. They also have a top-three projected pick this summer as well as possessing all of their own future firsts, a plethora of seconds, and two Dallas first rounders too. After the Celtics, they may well have the most trade assets in the league.
The state of the franchise
The Knicks have been the laughing stock of the NBA for what seems like forever. They haven’t won an NBA Championship since 1973, not reached the Finals since 1999, and have made the playoffs only six times this millennium. From 2013, when Phil Jackson became GM, the franchise has been a total mess. Under GM Scott Perry and Coach Fizdale, they seem to have some direction. While right now the direction is downwards, at least they have a plan, right?
The Knicks’ plan depends entirely on a) drafting Zion Williamson or someone else who turns out to be a superstar, and b) signing at least one superstar free agent. Given the turmoil within the team over recent years, it’s definitely within the realm of possibility for the stars not to sign with New York. Moreover, the chances of the Knicks picking the wrong guy in the draft are unnervingly real. If they don’t get at least one superstar this summer, the Porzingis trade will look like one of the worst in the history of the NBA. Though they’ll have a good young core, they’ll be years away from competing.
Worst case scenario: they can still get some solid role players with all their cap space. They can absorb some bad contracts in return for picks or players. NY will have the ability to keep on going for another two or three summers until their young guns get paid. In the meantime, they just have to wait it out and improve themselves.
Dallas Mavericks
It’s all about Luka
Since the Mavericks traded up to get Luka Doncic in the draft, the team has been shaken up from top to bottom. With Dirk retiring soon, the Porzingis trade as well as the Barnes trade, they’re an entirely different prospect. Mark Cuban will have a job on his hands this summer. Many players didn’t get along with Doncic, which is why the Mavs need players with no ego. Luka needs the ball. He demands it. Everything good about the team goes through him, and he has more ability than anyone on the team. Even with Porzingis signing a max contract, the Mavs have the cap space for another max player.
While the prospect of playing with someone as good as Luka (or has the potential that he does) is amazing for some, others won’t want to share the limelight. If Doncic stays at the level he’s at right now, he’d still be an All-Star candidate. He’s only going to improve. Even Porzingis poses problems. His durability has come into question at times, often unwarranted, but it still must be asked. If he can come back stronger, then Dallas will be one of the best teams in the league, even without anyone else. If not, the Mavericks could have a serious problem on their hands.
Los Angeles Lakers
Where’s Anthony Davis?
Not in LA, for now. AD was the subject of all the talk prior to the deadline, as the Lakers led the race for him. The Celtics, Clippers, Nuggets, and Bucks were all mentioned, but Dell Demps said no to everyone. A bold move, and probably a foolish one. The Lakers were willing to give them everything but LeBron, and they still said no. They’re not going to get a better offer this summer. NOLA may get a good offer from Boston, with Jayson Tatum in the package or a plethora of picks, but it won’t be as good. Davis wants to be a Laker, but the Pelicans want him anywhere else.
Still, the Lakers have cap space for one max contract if they keep pretty much everyone from this season. The likes of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and JaVale McGee could all be re-signed for another season. However, it seems much more likely that the Lakers will look to trade for AD. Hopefully, they won’t have to give up as much as they offered this week, but Davis joining seems inevitable.
If the Lakers sign a max player in this summer’s free agency and don’t trade for AD, they could have a problem next summer. Davis will be a free agent, but Brandon Ingram will be an RFA. This means that the Lakers will still have to give up pieces of their young core to make way for The Brow. Unless the salary cap jumps much higher, it’ll be impossible to hold onto Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Lonzo Ball past next season.
Boston Celtics
The Danny Ainge show
If there’s one thing we know about the Celtics and Danny Ainge, it’s that anything can happen. Right now they’re in a sticky situation with cap space. They won’t be able to sign anyone major without Al Horford opting out of his $30 million player-option (not happening) or the Celtics trading Gordon Hayward for cash considerations alone (also not happening). Kyrie Irving is likely going to opt out of his $21 million option so he can get paid more, whether that’s by Boston or somewhere else.
Danny Ainge won’t be afraid of making a trade if he feels it’ll benefit the team. Although it looks as if they’ll lose the Clippers pick because of its protection, the Celtics still have their own pick, the Kings pick, and possibly the Grizzlies pick. They also have all of their own first-round picks after this year. The Celtics can trade for whoever they want, but keeping Kyrie is the top priority. Trading for AD is definitely in the cards, but when they’re on form with this unit, they don’t need Davis to challenge for the Championship.
Brooklyn Nets
Don’t sleep on Brooklyn
It seems like so long ago that people were talking about Brooklyn attracting top free agents in this summer’s free agency. Although they have to pay D’Angelo Russell, they still have enough cap space to sign whoever they want. Given that people talk about New York just because of the market, it’s only fair that we talk about the Nets too. The Nets have Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert, and two first-round picks this year. If they could get someone to take on Allen Crabbe’s contract, they’d have more than enough money to get a deal done.
While Brooklyn gave up everything in the Boston trade a few years back, they seem to have gotten their act together. They have enough quality players to attract a star. While they may not be favorites to land KD or Kyrie, don’t sleep on the possibility of Brooklyn making a deal in this summer’s free agency.
Indiana Pacers
Stick or twist?
The Pacers currently have $58.5 million tied up in next season’s contracts. That’s little over half of the salary cap. Even if they re-sign Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic, they’ll still have room for a max contract. While the likes of KD and Kawhi may not fancy the market, Indiana was top-five in the standings before Oladipo got injured. This team is ready to win if they get another star, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one goes to the Pacers.
The Pacers are a very young team, and they don’t have to get a big name. Their big-three of Oladipo, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis have an average age of 23. They’re only just getting started. Adding a big name in this summer’s free agency would give them a very real chance of being the best team in the conference.
Have your say on this summer’s free agency?
What do you think about this summer’s free agency? Should the Warriors be worried about losing KD? Can NY become respectable again? Are the Clippers the real deal? Let me know in the comment section below. Also, check out my Instagram and Twitter accounts.
PerSources Misses Nothing