It turns out the Falcons haven’t gotten off to great starts these past two seasons. But what is it this time?
Did it start in Super Bowl 51? Did blowing a 25-point lead to the Patriots single-handedly lead to the demise of an entire franchise?
What about their comeback tour? The proverbial fire lit under them that would inspire a return to the Super Bowl.
That “comeback tour” wasn’t a disaster, whatsoever, but it wasn’t their goal either. They expected to be in Minnesota with a chance at redemption against Brady and Patriots. What they got was a 10-6 season that ended with a 15-10 defeat to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles, after failing to convert a fourth and goal from the two-yard line with a minute left to play.
It hurt not getting a chance to redeem their mistakes from 51. It stung that much more when the team that they were one play away from beating, took the Falcons game, the Falcons moment, and stuck it to the Pats. But again, the NFL gifted the Falcons a chance at an important moral victory — Week 1 against the Eagles.
The Falcons were given a chance to let it all go and prove that the past two years were behind them. What they made of that chance was a repeat of the first matchup with Philly. Down six, on the Eagles five-yard line, with one play left to win. For the second-straight year, the Eagles left as the victors, and the Falcons left not only as losers but again haunted by their past.
Atlanta responded well with a win over Carolina in Week 2 but stumbled into a three-game losing streak. Now, they sit tied for last in the entire NFC at 1-4. This brings up the question at hand. What is wrong with the Falcons?
Still Missing Kyle Shanahan
Anyone who watched what the Falcons did in 2016 knows how important offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was in orchestrating the entire offense. He transformed Matt Ryan from a quality, above-average starter into an NFL MVP. His impact on their offense, the driving force behind the Super Bowl run, is unmatched.
They went from scoring 33.8 PPG in 2016, to 22.1 following Shannahan’s departure, a number slightly lower than the 26.6 they’re producing right now. Two years later, that difference is more than a TD. Outside of Philly, I wouldn’t blame the offense for the team’s early struggles.
Defense and Injuries
When healthy, the Falcons defense is among the best in the league, as they were top-10 in both yards and points allowed last year. Unfortunately for Falcons’ fans, their full-strength defense couldn’t even last a game. Starting safety Keanu Neal left the season opener with a torn ACL before halftime. While it was a blow, it was nothing compared to the following storm.
Starting linebacker and defensive leader in the middle Deion Jones, who played the entire game, was diagnosed with a foot injury, joining Neal on IR. However, there’s hope he’ll return. The Falcons other starting safety, Ricardo Allen who starts opposite Neal, tore his Achilles in Week 3 against the Saints, while other starters Tak McKinley and Grady Jarrett have also missed a game each.
This combination of injuries has forced the Falcons into starting second (and at times) third-string players, leading them to allow 32.6 PPG, good for 31st in the league. Since Week 1, which once again was the only time they had their entire starting defense, the Falcons have been giving up north of 36 PPG.
Those aren’t conditions that are going to lead to a lot of wins, no matter what kind of talent they have on offense. This is indicated by their 43-37 loss to New Orleans and 37-36 loss at the hands of the Bengals. Those games show two outstanding offenses performances that went to waste because of a lackluster defense.
Matt Ryan or Matty Ice?
The Falcons offense hasn’t been the problem. I know I went into the statistics of how they’ve declined, but they’ve produced more than a one-win team should. What I want to focus on is what the Falcons are getting out of Matt Ryan. When you look at his 320 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, and two interceptions you think he’s just doing what Matt Ryan does. The problem is that while you may be seeing Matt Ryan, you’re not getting Matty Ice.
What made Matt Ryan so special in his early career was the ability to perform in the fourth quarter and win decisive games, no matter what position the defense put him in. The Falcons have been among the top fourth-quarter scoring teams, but they’ve failed to make that one key play that secures the win.
We saw Ryan do it against the Panthers already on a gutsy eight-yard scramble on third down for a TD to put the Falcons ahead by 14. Had he gone down and they elected to kick, they probably lose that game.
On the flip side.
I’ve already taken you through the Eagles play at the goal line. What about the taken sack against Cincinnati that forced Atlanta to settle for three and eventually lose by one. It’s plays like that, that separate a 1-4 team from a 4-1 team.
It’s play like that, that separate Matt Ryan from Matty Ice.
What’s Next?
I might be the only one thinking about this yet, but what happens if the Falcons fall to 5 losses, 6 losses, 7, 8, 9, and so on, and end up with a high draft pick.
Do you take a Kansas City/Baltimore approach and flirt with the idea of drafting the successor to Matt Ryan while he’s in his early-mid 30s. Many fans and analysts would argue that it’s unlikely that the Falcons would be that high in the draft again and would have to take a stab at the QB of the future.
Or do you take a Giants/Chargers approach and take the best available player year after year, with the hopes of building a team that will allow Ryan to compete for a championship in the twilight of his career.
I have no doubts that Ryan is still a top-tier quarterback, but the proposition of drafting his successor is quite intriguing. It might be the toughest decision that the franchise has had to make in a while.
Ultimately, all of this speculating stems from the question we started with. What is wrong with the Falcons?
Care to discuss, hit me up on Instagram or Twitter @MS_Persources.