One year ago today, John Fox announced that the Chicago Bears were benching the giraffe/statue-playing-QB Mike Glennon and beginning the era Chicago fans were waiting for with Mitchell Trubisky in their fifth game against the vaunted Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.
No one really knew what to expect from the young, inexperienced QB, but expectations were moderate. His supporting cast was below mediocre, mainly due to injury and his offensive coordinator being seemingly in over his head. Saving the season was too much to ask for from almost any QB stepping into this situation. Fans just wanted to see a glimpse of what they could possibly look forward to from their hopeful face of the franchise. And the results weren’t a surprise.
Mitch did about as well as any inexperienced QB would’ve done if they were thrown into the fire with no-name receivers to throw to and a vanilla, predictable offensive system. He played in 12 games, throwing for 2193 yards, 7 TDs, and 7 INTs with a 59.4% completion percentage and a passer rating of 77.5. It’s not good but not terrible. He showed flashes on film of why Ryan Pace made Trubisky his guy in the 2017 Draft. The word around the locker room was how hard of a worker Mitch was and how he was already winning his teammates over with his leadership ability. But the question remained, can he be the guy that leads the team on the field with his play?
Well, they needed to fire John Fox in order to find that out.
Insert offensive/QB guru Matt Nagy, the Andy Reid product that Ryan Pace hand-picked to lead the Chicago Bears, and more importantly, the QB back to relevancy. Just like that, the expectations for Trubsiky to become “The Chosen One” skyrocketed. But if that move didn’t do it for you, Pace’s impressive offseason probably did.
Ryan Pace provided Trubisky with a plethora of pass-catching weapons including Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and rookie Anthony Miller. And if that still didn’t do it for you, Pace topped the offseason with the biggest cherry of them all; trading for none other than Khalil Mack. This turned the already good, top-10 defense into a defensive unit ready for a potential postseason run. Not to mention all of the other young passers in the league that are slinging it everywhere and balling out.
All of these factors combined completely tore up the “rebuild” cape the Bears were wearing. Now, they’re a team ready to contend. But even then, just like every other team in the NFL, they’ll only go as far as their QB will take them.
Fast-forward to present day.
The Bears are 3-1 atop their division heading into their bye-week. Trubisky just broke the franchise record for most passing TDs in a half with five, finishing with six at game’s end in his 16th start as Chicago’s starting QB. Sounds great, right? Well, when I put it that way…
Watching Trubisky’s growth as a QB has been like watching your kid play Pee-Wee football for the first time. And that’s not a knock on him as a football player. In fact, it’s what Bears fans should have expected. He only had 11 games of starting experience heading into the Draft. The learning curve was steep, and the fact that he had to learn a whole new, more complex offense this season only makes that learning curve steeper. What’s important is that, in his 16th start in the NFL, his improvement is noticeable. While Nagy may have a lot to do with that, the QB has shown the ability to grow even under last year’s regime.
Trubisky’s first four games as a pro were rough, though he went up against three solid defenses in MIN, BAL, and CAR. But, again, the importance is in the improvement.
In those first four games, Mitch averaged just 128 pass-yards per game, had 2 TDs and 2 INTs, while completing a little over 47% of his passes. The next eight games? He averaged 210 pass-yards per game, had 5 TDs and 5 INTs, with a completion percentage of 63%. While his TD-INT ratio stayed the same, it was obvious he was seeing the field better and getting more comfortable in an offense that handcuffed him and lacked creativity.
So, how does this translate to today?
First, we have to take into context that, as we mentioned before, Trubisky is learning a whole new and more complex offensive system. This system has lots of pre-snap movement, RPO’s, wacky formations, and an array of routes for the pass-catchers to run. So, essentially, other than already knowing what NFL game-speed is like, he’s starting from square one again. Now, with that being said, let’s take a look at Trubisky’s first four games in the Matt Nagy era.
Mitch is averaging 236 YPG, has 8 TDs and 3 INTs, with a completion percentage of 70%. Wait, what’s the word I’ve been harping on? Oh, right. Improvement.
Trubisky has received a lot of flack from fans and the media for his performance in the first three games, and rightfully so. They were performances that make you wonder just how good (or bad) Chicago would be if they hadn’t traded for Khalil Mack. Trubisky showed inconsistencies with his footwork, with a tendency to have “happy feet” in the pocket even if there was no pressure. The footwork issues translated to inaccurate throws to wide-open receivers, plays that even an average back-up QB will make.
But I refuse to look at Mitch’s growth blinders on. The improvement is slow, but it’s there. And this has the feel of what the old “QB development” was like, before rookies came onto the scene breaking all kinds of passing records. Don’t let yourself fall into crippling-grip of “comparisons.” Trubisky is again, with the perspective of context, right where he should be.
Projections are always a cringe-worthy thing when it comes to an NFL player’s stats, but what the heck…
The Bears QB is on pace to pass for 3,780 yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs, and rush for 448 yards. Nagy admittedly scaled back the playbook a bit from the first three games, which will allow Trubisky to not think as much and enable him to continue building confidence all while still learning the nuances of the QB position. Confidence in Trubisky isn’t the only factor here. Bears fans also have to put faith in Nagy, Mark Helfrich, and Dave Ragone to help Mitch get over the one obstacle seemingly in his way; his own mind. It’s all mental with Trubisky at this point, but his improvement is showing that it certainly is fixable.
Mitch’s continual renovation, coupled with our running game which currently ranks 10th in the league at 121.5 YPG and our championship-caliber defense, have the Bears in perfect position to not just make a playoff push, but even go as far as contending for the division. That division that was expected to be won by the team Mitchell Trubisky made his first start against. The same team he plays in Week 17 in a potentially pivotal postseason-birth atmosphere, the Minnesota Vikings.
Funny how things end up coming back full-circle.
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