Tyler Thornburg has been making AAA “rehab” appearances for over two weeks now. In the coming days, the Red Sox will have to make a decision on the future of the reliever. The team chose to option Thornburg back to the minors, but as a player with five or more years of service time, he was able to refuse the option. Now, it looks like Thornburg will likely be released. As his time comes to an end, I think it’s time we revisit the Travis Shaw trade that brought Thornburg to Boston.
In December of 2016, the Red Sox decided to ship Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, and a PTBNL (Yeison Coca) to Milwaukee in exchange for Tyler Thornburg. At the time, Thornburg was coming off of a career year, appearing in 67 games and posting a 2.15 ERA as the Brewers’ set-up man. Shaw had taken a bit of a step back in his first full season in the majors in 2016, hitting .242 with 16 HRs and a .726 OPS.
Boston had their third-ranked prospect, Rafael Devers, ready to make the jump to 3B. At first, Shaw’s secondary position, the Sox had Hanley Ramirez who had just had a pretty successful first season at the position. They needed help in the bullpen, so the trade made some sense.
Since then, however, it’s been very one-sided. Milwaukee’s pieces have seen all the success, while Boston’s Thornburg has been a big disappointment.
From 2017-now, Shaw has hit .244, with 69 HRs, 200 RBIs, and a .802 OPS. However, Shaw has struggled mightily this season and has been playing in AAA since the beginning of the month. The Red Sox could’ve used some help at the 1B position in the last couple seasons. They had to go out and acquire Steve Pearce (who obviously had a good run last year but has been on the DL now since the beginning of June) after Hanley Ramirez was DFA’d. Mitch Moreland, the full-time starter, has dealt with injuries the last two seasons as well. Boston expected Sam Travis to be the 1B of the future, but he hasn’t seen consistent time at the MLB level.
2B/SS/OF Mauricio Dubon was the Red Sox 10th-ranked prospect at the time of the trade. During his time with the Brewers’ AAA affiliate, he hit .301, with 24 HRs, 93 RBIs, and an .817 OPS. He was just recently called up to the majors and will likely see some sparing time throughout the rest of the year.
P Josh Pennington was clearly just a throw-in in this deal. He had actually been decent during his time in single-A ball, throwing 32.1 innings with a 2.78 ERA. After a few arm injuries, however, Pennington decided to call it a career at just 22 years old.
The PTBNL ended up being Yeison Coca. He’s only been in single-A since the beginning of this season and has struggled offensively. He was touted as a strong-defensive IF, but as of right now, he’s a long way away from being relevant in the Brewers’ organization.
As for Thornburg, his time in Boston has been a nightmare. He missed the entire 2017 campaign with a shoulder injury. His debut with the Red Sox didn’t come until July of 2018. While Boston won the World Series last season, Thornburg wasn’t the reason for the success. The righty posted a 5.63 ERA in 25 appearances. He was even kept off the postseason roster.
Somehow, 2019 has been even worse for the 30-year-old. In 16 appearances, Thornburg has recorded a 7.71 ERA, allowing 16 ERs in 18.2 IP. He’s been abysmal and has been part of the Red Sox bullpen issues throughout the season. Boston went into the season after losing their two best arms (Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel) in the offseason and did nothing to improve. Dombrowski and co. decided to just run it back, and it hasn’t worked.
And, the part that’s the most difficult has been watching the success of guys like Shaw and Dubon. Not only did they overpay for Thornburg in terms of pieces given up, but they gave up two MLB players for a guy who won’t be in the league at this rate. That’s the thing with relievers. You can’t trust most of them long-term. One year they’re great, and the next they’re terrible. It fluctuates so rapidly.
I was a big believer in this trade when it happened. I was upset that they were getting rid of Shaw, but I knew how good Thornburg looked the year prior. Shoulder injuries can do that to a guy. I know it’s tough to say someone lost a trade due to injury, but in this case, it’s obvious.