Let’s talk about the Denver Nuggets progression from last year to this year. Last year, they were eliminated by the Minnesota Timberwolves. This year? They’re half a game behind the Golden State Warriors. Why aren’t they discussed more? It’s understood that the Warriors coming out of the West is just as guaranteed as the sun setting there tomorrow. But, shouldn’t the fourth best record in the NBA, led by a grizzly bear that picked up basketball averaging 20.7/10.7/7.7 on 50/31/84 at the age of 23, get some attention?
Their top three scorers – Jokic, Murray, and Harris, are all under 25. They have about $23 million in cap space this offseason, and their star locked up for the next five years. The Nuggets were swept by Milwaukee early in the season. However, they’ve fared well against other top five teams like OKC (3-0), GS (1-1), and TOR (2-0).
The Nuggets have been seen as a temperamental team in the past. While they’ve shown recent symptoms – dropping a game to the Jazz in Denver – they seem poised to leave those days behind them. They’re four wins away from last year’s total as of today. The most astonishing thing has been their uptick in their net ratings.
They continued their offensive excellence jumping from sixth to third in offensive rating. However, their defensive strides are much more important: 25th to 11th. They’ve moved up from 11th to fifth in rating, behind Boston, Toronto, Golden State, and Milwaukee. All of this progression is done with the exact same top-five scorers, although they’ve increased and have new contributions from Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, and Juan Hernangomez.
I’m not christening them the new favorites for the Finals this season. Their progression still is rendered obsolete by Kevin Durant playing basketball in the Bay Area. But, there’s no reason that the Nuggets couldn’t advance to the conference finals or take OKC to seven with their improved look. If the playoffs started now, the Nuggets would host the seventh-seeded Clippers.
The Nuggets own the best home record in the league, 27-4, and will have home court until Golden State. Although, they’re nipping at the Warriors’ heels, half a game behind, as I write. So, what’s the reason for the Nuggets lack of hype? Yes, they seem susceptible to an early upset, and Jokic’s plodding genius doesn’t strike fear into the hearts’ of opponents the same way that Paul George or Steph Curry do, but it’s no less potent. Factor in Isaiah Thomas, who’s still getting his bearings.
Worst case scenario, he’s not the same, and they’re still the second-best team in the West with a very dark horse MVP candidate, a strong supporting cast, and home court for the first two rounds. Best case scenario, he regains some of his Boston playoff potency and is a dangerous weapon off the bench to spell Murray and Harris to provide instant offense to a team that’s already loaded with it.
Even looking forward to next season, the Nuggets could feature prominently in a post-Durant West. Golden State will be weakened, Paul will be another year older in Houston, and we’ll see if OKC is truly a force to be reckoned with these playoffs. Keep in mind, Denver is yet to lose to the Thunder this season though. On top of their current standing, they have several aspects of their organization that could bolster them in the future.
Michael Porter Jr. is a potential ace in the hole for Denver’s progression into the West’s elite. A lineup of Murray-Harris-Barton-Porter-Jokic is one to be feared if Porter can play healthy and to a fraction of his potential. They also should have about $23 million in cap space to work with to do as they please this upcoming offseason.
Watch out for the Denver Nuggets.
Stats current as of 3/1 via Basketball Reference.