It’s no secret that for the past fifteen years the AFC has been dominated by teams led by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. They’ve appeared in 14 of the past 15 Super Bowls (2012 Ravens) and combined for 21 of 30 potential AFC Championship game appearances. That run has to end at one point, however. Peyton rode off into the sunset three seasons ago, Brady is 41 and can’t play forever, and it seems like every other week the 36-year-old Roethlisberger contemplates retirement.
The AFC doesn’t have an heir apparent though. Some of the other biggest contenders, like the Chargers and Ravens, have solid rosters, but their quarterbacks are on the wrong side of 30. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, who made last years AFC Championship, still have Blake Bortles at QB. There’s no “perfect” team in the AFC like you have in the Eagles, Rams, and Vikings in the NFC. There are teams, however, who under the right circumstances could be sparking the next great Brady-Manning AFC rivalry. I think that the 2018 season will bring a lot of foreshadowing for the next 5-10 years in the AFC.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
For the Chiefs, everything is riding on Patrick Mahomes. We know the talent that the rest of this roster has, especially on offense, and that it’s true potential was never unlocked with Alex Smith. Rookie sensation Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing, All-Pro TE Travis Kelce, and the most unique receiver in football, Tyreek Hill, have the chance along with Mahomes to dominate the AFC in a post-Brady-Roethlisberger-Rivers world.
The average age of those four is just over 24-years-old, but again everything rides on Mahomes. If he steps up and becomes the man that a 10th overall pick should be, the Chiefs have the highest ceiling of any AFC team down the line. It all hinges on how one player develops, but in a question mark filled AFC, they still have the best shot.
2. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are in a similar boat to the Chiefs in that their success depends on how Marcus Mariota continues to play, but he certainly isn’t alone. Mariota is accompanied by maybe the best one-two RB punch in the league in Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, along with 2017 fifth overall pick WR Corey Davis. Ahead of Mariota, the Titans have elite tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan, and an overall solid offensive line.
What’s most intriguing and what could propel Tennessee even further is their defense. This unit is annually stocked with drafted talent that continues to grow and add depth, to accompany veterans and free agent signings like Malcolm Butler. If the Titans grow rookies like Rahsaan Evans and Harold Landry, who in my opinion could both shine, as well as continue building around Mariota, they’ll undoubtedly reach AFC Championships and Super Bowls in the near future.
3. Houston Texans
Again a team is putting their faith into a potential franchise QB. The Texans, however, have seen their guy thrive in the spotlight. Watson threw for a ridiculous 19 touchdowns in seven games, a historic pace for a rookie, before tearing his ACL. In his last five starts before the injury Houston was averaging 39 points per game, but only went 2-3. This team still has a ways to go before we can consider them a serious contender in the AFC, but the pieces are certainly there.
Deandre Hopkins might be the best receiver in football and is locked up for four more years on a monster contract he signed last summer. J.J. Watt will return, and should he stay healthy, will anchor a defense that’s retooling not rebuilding. The Texans aren’t ready quite yet, but this year will be an important one in getting guys healthy and analyzing what they have around Watson.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars should be higher on the list, but it’s tough to project the future of a team without a quarterback. Realistically, teams compete over long stretches of time because, even though the supporting cast changes, there’s a QB in place that stabilizes everything. Blake Bortles is not that. He was carried to the AFC Championship by one of the most star-powered defenses in recent memory, and a RB in Leonard Fournette who doesn’t come around too often. That has to change for the Jaguars in order to sustain success.
However, they’re still coming in at four because of how damn talented that defense is. Jalen Ramsey is 23-years-old and a top-two cornerback. Yannick Ngakoue is the same age and has quietly produced 20 sacks in his first two seasons. 2017 Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Calais Campbell has shown zero signs of slowing down. Not to mention the dynamic linebackers, Myles Jack and Telvin Smith, oh, and another top-10 corner in A.J. Bouye.
That core will allow the Jaguars to compete in 2018 and beyond. With even a slight quarterback upgrade they could vault to the number one team that owns the future of the AFC.
5. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have gone 1-31 the past two seasons. One win in thirty-two games. Just let that sink in.
I’m not going to take the time to talk about Tyrod Taylor because he’s not a part of the Browns future, it’s all about Baker. I’ve already bought in on Baker being the future of the Browns, and you should too. Mayfield just won games at Oklahoma (33-6), and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue at the next level. The Browns have an overhauled offensive core that now features Jarvis Landry, a potentially sober Josh Gordon, running backs Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb, and TE David Njoku. That’s probably the most exciting group of position players outside of Kansas City.
The defense isn’t there yet, though, and it seems like Baker isn’t going to see the field for some time. However, the Browns can only go up from here, and when Baker finally gets out there, whether in 2018 or 2019, we’ll get to see just how good the Browns could be.
6. Indianapolis Colts
It wasn’t that long ago that the Colts played in an AFC Championship being dragged by Andrew Luck. New management has this team built much better around him and should allow for a return to Colts glory on the back of #12. All he has to do is remain healthy.
7. & 8. New York Jets and Buffalo Bills
These two teams are in very similar boats. They both drafted rookie QBs in the first round of this year’s draft. Both are waiting for Tom Brady to leave the division, so they can actually try to compete in the AFC. It just comes down to if Sam Darnold and Josh Allen are ever going to be ready, and for that, they get grouped together.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Oh, look! Another team with a young QB that their entire future is relying on their arm (or legs). I know I could’ve ranked the Ravens with the Jets and Bills, but I think Jackson is farther behind in his development compared to Allen and Darnold and should take a little longer to adapt to the NFL.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
This team is the biggest variable in the AFC. They have one of the best-supporting casts a QB could ask for, a young defense loaded with talent, but absolutely zero insurance behind Philip Rivers. With a solid replacement, this team could jump into the top five, but uncertainty often leads to disaster.
Let’s sum up the final six AFC teams in seven words or less.
11. Oakland Raiders
How does one trade Khalil Mack?
12. Denver Broncos
Case Keenum? Kellymania? 2019 Draft.
13.+ 14.Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins
Ditch your QB and reload the roster.
15. New England Patriots
What the hell is after Tom?
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bell leaves. Ben retires. Rudolph stinks.
Care to share your thoughts on the future of the AFC, hit me up on twitter or Instagram @MS_Persources.