With three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is beginning to shape out. The Dallas Cowboys have already secured a playoff berth and can clinch the NFC East with a win and a New York Giants loss. The rest of the field is still up in the air. Who are the Super Bowl contenders though? Who is really going to contend, and who is just playing us all? These are the top 5 Super Bowl contenders.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have continued to fight this season, beating nearly every opponent on their path. Currently, atop the almighty AFC West, Andy Reid’s Chiefs have ridden their stellar defense to an 11-3 record. We’ve known that they have some play-makers on the defense, but when they all come together and succeed at the same time, it is a beautiful sight. Just look through the list of names on the defense (Eric Berry, Dee Ford, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Marcus Peters, Dontari Poe), and it’s hard to find a guy who is not in the top 10 at their position. This is why they have allowed the eighth fewest points per game (19.6) and the most takeaways per game (1.9).
The defense isn’t the only reason for the success. The offense has found success in players who have stepped up due to injuries. WR Tyreek Hill is likely the biggest example of this. The fifth-round pick has eclipsed 500 yards receiving along with six touchdowns and 68 receptions. Hill is also leading the league in yards per punt return (15.3) and has added a punt return TD and a kick return TD. His versatility has allowed him to play a “Ty Montgomery” role, also playing some running back.
Many fans were hoping to get Jamaal Charles back and healthy by the time the playoffs rolled around, but when he was placed on IR in October for the second season in a row, Spencer Ware was more than glad to take the reins. He has rushed for nearly 800 yards this season, punching it in three times. Ware has also proved to be solid in the passing game, hauling in 28 balls and scoring twice.
It would be wrong of me to mention the Chiefs success without two of their most consistent players, QB Alex Smith and TE Travis Kelce. Since coming to Kansas City in 2013, Smith has expanded on his role as game manager. He’s a guy who won’t put up monster numbers, but he also doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. His ability to extend plays with his legs makes him a threat in the playoffs. To me, Kelce is a top 5 TE in the league. He’s in the tier right below Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed. He has already set his career high in receiving yards and could set his career high in TDs as well. He will be the biggest match-up problem for any team they face.
4. New York Giants
How many times do I have to watch this movie? The Giants start out slow and get hot exactly at the right time to make a playoff run. I don’t like the way that series ends, and dear God don’t let it be a trilogy. The G-Men have ridden Odell Beckham Jr. to this far, they have to hope he holds up. He has the chance to set a career mark in yards and touchdowns, but they finish out the season against Lions CB Darius Slay and Redskins CB Josh Norman. Both should be good games, so set your reminders.
The most impressive part of this run they’ve been on is that they are doing this without any running game whatsoever. They are 31st in rushing yards per game (78.7) and rushing touchdowns (0.4). Rashad Jennings has had no success this season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and the team just activated RB Shane Vereen from the IR after suffering a tricep injury earlier in the season. Vereen doesn’t provide much hope to the running game anyway, as he is more of a pass-catching back.
When we look back to last season, the Giants were 30th in points allowed. This season, due to free agent and rookie acquisitions, New York has climbed up to seventh, allowing just 18.8 points per game. The addition of CB Janoris Jenkins allowed first-round draft pick CB Eli Apple to play in the slot, a position that has suited him nicely. The secondary of Jenkins, Apple, DRC, Landon Collins, and Nat Berhe has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns this season at one a game, just behind the Denver Broncos.
The front seven has been stellar as well, with first-year Giants DT Damon Harrison and DE Olivier Vernon playing at a high level. They have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards (92.7) and have been getting after the Quarterback with more than two sacks per game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Is there a better trio than Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown? I’ll give you a second… No? Okay. After being suspended the first three games of the season, Bell has gone on an absolute tear. He could set his career mark in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receptions. His combination of strength, speed, and quickness makes him one of the most feared weapons in the game. Combine that with one of the best WRs in the game in Antonio Brown, and there is nothing you can do.
He leads the league in receptions, is second in touchdowns behind only Jordy Nelson of the Packers, and is third in receiving yards behind T.Y. Hilton and Julio Jones. Roethlisberger has been solid this year as well, throwing 25 touchdowns and over 3,200 yards in 12 games. He will have to avoid making the mistakes he did this past week against Buffalo, where he threw three interceptions and was held without a touchdown pass.
We all know that the Steelers offense can score, but the thing that has held them back has been the defense. The defensive unit is not giving up a ton of points per game (19.7), but they have been poor against the pass, allowing 252 passing yards per game. This is something that we have come to expect from Pittsburgh over the last couple seasons. Their secondary needs to be better and with more experience from first-round pick CB Artie Burns, maybe they can turn it around. For now, we are going to have to see them continue to put up 25-30 points to win.
2. Dallas Cowboys
The hype was apparently real for QB Dak Prescott. Just think back to the preseason when everyone was all aboard the Dak Express. Then, as quickly as people jumped on, the analysts discredited him because of the circumstances of preseason football. As always, Romo got hurt and Dak stepped up in a big way, leading the Cowboys on an 11-game winning streak.
Every time I watch Dak, I still have the same questions. Can he make the big pass? Now, I’m not sure if it because I haven’t seen them play that often, or if it is actually true, I don’t see him making passes down the field. That’s not something you necessarily need to be a top-tier QB in the NFL, but thinking about all of the top-level QBs in the last decade or so, they have all had that ability. Maybe Dak can win without it, or maybe he has it and hasn’t shown it yet. Two things are certain: he is exciting, and he doesn’t make mistakes.
Cowboys fans have gotten a real treat this season with two rookies dominating as much as they have. When Dallas took RB Ezekiel Elliot with the fourth-pick this year, it was a foregone conclusion that he would rush for 1,000 yards. Not only does Dallas have the best offensive line in football, but Elliot has everything you want in a running back. He’s strong. He’s fast. He can make guys miss. All of that can be shown in his league-leading 1,392 rushing yards and the 12 rushing touchdowns that put him second behind Patriots’ RB LeGarrette Blount. What Dak lacks in big-play potential, Zeke makes up. He leads the league in 20+ yard runs. Having one of the most balanced game-plans in the NFL will certainly help the Cowboys be a contender.
Don’t forget about Dez. One of the most incredible parts of this run for the Cowboys is that he hasn’t even been one of the first names mentioned. He is averaging his lowest yards per game of his career as a starter (2015 was lower, but he only appeared in nine games the whole season).
The Dallas defense is another one who played above expectations this season. They have allowed the fifth fewest points per game (18.3). That stems from the strength of their front seven, who have done a great job holding opposing running backs to 83.3 yards per game. Where their faults show, and what we expected to be their downfall is the secondary. They have allowed the fifth most passing yards per game (267.8) and going up against top-level QBs in the playoffs could be difficult for them.
1. New England Patriots
A roller-coaster season in New England is not something we have come to expect. Brady was suspended the first four weeks of the season, due to some bogus investigation that the NFL no-longer thinks is necessary. The Patriots went on to win three of their four games, using both of their young quarterbacks.
The loss to Buffalo had some extenuating circumstances that included an injured QB in Jacoby Brissett, who would later go on the IR. What we did expect was Brady coming back with a vengeance, putting up numbers and putting down teams. In New England, the world fell apart after the loss to Seattle. Boston media did it’s typical “the sky is falling” routine whenever the Patriots lose at home, which is not often. This was followed by the injury to TE Rob Gronkowski that would require surgery and sideline him for the season. As they always do, the Patriots were able to adjust and continue their winning ways.
The offense looks to still be in sync. Brady is spreading the ball all over. Chris Hogan has been worth every penny of the $12M contract he received this off-season. His work on the deep ball has really impressed me. Fourth-round pick WR Malcolm Mitchell has built a rapport with Brady, something we haven’t seen from a rookie in some time. Edelman is doing work, per usual. Martellus Bennett has added some great insurance for Gronk. He has mainly been used for blocking, but as we saw in the beginning of the season, he can do so much more.
LeGarrette Blount has been the shock of the season. He has already eclipsed his career high in rushing yards and is leading the league with 14 rushing touchdowns. We haven’t seen this type of scoring production from a running back in New England since Curtis Martin. This all comes after fans and media were ready to kick him out the door last season after his injury. He could be a big factor when it comes to the playoff run. The team needs to use the run to set-up the pass and vice versa.
If you asked around New England: What is the biggest concern for the Patriots heading into the playoffs? The resounding answer would be the defense. They have received this negative connotation, but why? They have allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.7), the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.2) and 15th in passing yards per game (247.8). None of those numbers suggest they are a defense that should be scared going into the playoffs. It does mean something in context. The Patriots have had one of the easiest schedules this season. Prior to this past week, they had the lowest strength of schedule in the league. If they want to make a run at the Super Bowl. The defense will need to perform against the better teams.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know!