So, the Golden State Warriors are really good at basketball. That’s been the one consistent thing in the NBA the last five years. That’s a problem for the rest of the NBA. But, perhaps it’s not quite as unsolvable as we think it is. At least, that’s what everybody living outside the Bay Area is hoping.
While nobody wants to see a player go down, DeMarcus Cousins’ injury puts an interesting twist on this postseason. While still a juggernaut, the injury has exposed an Achilles heel. This year, they might just be beatable.
This will be as good of an opportunity as any for the Houston Rockets to finally vanquish their foe. In case you’ve forgotten, the Warriors have sent the Rockets home three out of the last four years in the playoffs. And, this year, they’ll likely clash again in the second round. Golden State (and Manu Ginobili) has been the same constant roadblock for James Harden reaching the NBA Finals. There’s almost a Steve Nash vs the San Antonio Spurs feel to this annual battle. But, perhaps, like Nash did in 2010, Harden might finally be able to defeat his foe.
Some people thought last season was Houston’s best chance. The Rockets took the Warriors to seven hard-fought games, even taking a 3-2 series lead at one point. But, after losing starting SF Trevor Ariza in free agency and the Warriors’ acquisition of All-Star DeMarcus Cousins, it looked like Houston missed their window. However, as we all know, Cousins unfortunately tore his quad in the first round this year, closing the gap between the two teams significantly.
To start, here’s the most important thing that needs to happen: Houston defeating the Utah Jazz as soon as possible. The Rockets can’t waste any time taking care of their first-round match-up. As of the time of this writing, the series is 2-0 in Houston’s favor. This first round has to be a sweep.
One of Hardens’ biggest weaknesses is his tendency to burn out as the post-season continues. Given an extra week of rest, there are definite benefits to finishing Utah off quick. This preserves PG Chris Paul more too. Paul has struggled with hamstring issues his entire time with the Rockets, and his hamstring probably cost them the Conference Finals last year. Fatigue and overuse are huge factors in hamstring injuries, and Paul could use the time off.
Another factor is the timing of this series. Last year, the two teams faced off in the Western Conference Finals. This season, this match-up is happening a whole round earlier. A fresh Chris Paul and James Harden may be enough of a difference from last year.
Now, to tackle the issue of actually beating Golden State. It’s essentially a rematch from 2018. Some role-players have come and gone, but the core remains the same. It’s Harden and Paul on one side, two of the game’s most gifted creators, surrounded by shooters and Clint Capela’s terrific screen-and-roll action. Across from them stands the greatest collection of talent ever assembled on an NBA team. It’s an uphill battle but a winnable one if things go right.
Sure, the Rockets have lost some players like Ariza, but it’s arguable they’re even better than they were last season. Kenneth Faried was a huge pick-up, and Austin Rivers hasn’t been terrible either. Iman Shumpert can play spot minutes as an energetic defender, and Gary Clark is another smart, versatile wing. Danuel House is also extremely underrated, as a 41.6% three-point shooter on 4.6 attempts per game. Chris Paul might’ve gotten a year older, but he hasn’t been exactly going full steam this season either.
The Warriors, on the other hand, have lost most of their center rotation from last season. It’s not a big deal, considering they still have Kevon Looney, who soaked up most of the center minutes in 2018. JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia played a combined seven minutes per game in last year’s series, so it doesn’t matter much that they’re gone. The only other player gone that played any significant minutes is Nick Young, and that’s by no means a deal breaker.
Golden State is left with Looney and Andrew Bogut to man the paint, while Green and Durant could also give minutes there. Bogut, unfortunately, will get eaten alive if he has to chase Capela around the court. Looney stands the best chance and actually fared pretty well in switches against Harden during last year’s series. Offensively, Looney won’t provide much, but that’s okay when you surround him with four All-Stars. There’s also Jordan Bell, but his inconsistency makes him a bit of a gamble in the playoffs.
The question is if Golden States highly touted “Death Lineup” will still work against the Rockets. A group of five consisting of Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Green, and Durant has terrorized opponents in fourth quarters the last three years and remains their most devastating weapon. Golden State is small-ball on steroids, with a legit seven-footer wreaking havoc on defense and pulling threes on offense. For most teams, it’s unstoppable, a flurry of quickness and shooting that no other roster has a chance of matching.
Except Houston has their own lineup to match. They cracked the code last year, when they took the Warriors to seven games. Most centers in the NBA stand no chance guarding Green and Durant whose quickness and shooting make it impossible for other bigs to catch up. Not for Clint Capela, however. Capela might be bit undersized compared to most centers at 6’10”, but he’s perfect for transition and can keep up with players half-a-foot shorter. If you were to choose any center in the league to counter Golden State’s behemoth, it would be Capela.
Houston also has other options to counter Golden State’s run-and-gun chaos, stocking versatile wings like House, Clark, and P.J Tucker to complement their star back-court duo. Tucker, in particular, will be huge, as he’s turned himself into quite an accomplished three-point marksmen living from the corner three. He was a key reason why the Rockets were able to counter Golden State’s Death Lineup so effectively. At 6’5″, Tucker plays several inches above his height, providing the toughness of a center while keeping the quickness of a guard. Tucker will guard anybody the Warriors have and will, once again, play a major role in this Conference Finals rematch.
Curry is also nursing a sprained foot, which shouldn’t end up being a big deal. But, if it does, the Warriors will only find themselves even more shorthanded. This is probably the weakest supporting cast Golden State has had in this era. Andre Iguodala, as usual, has turned up a notch in the postseason, but returns from everyone else have been shaky. Shaun Livingston has looked a step slower all season, and it’s doubtful Bogut will be able to keep up against the fleet-footed Rockets in the upcoming series.
Against Houston, Golden State might have to shorten their rotation to just the starting five plus Iguodala and Quinn Cook. Bell might be a counter to Capela at times but can’t be trusted to switch onto Harden or Paul. That’s going to be an exhausting series for the Warriors, especially if it drags out like last year.
The Rockets, on the other hand, can go 10 deep into their rotation. Even bench players Gerald Green, Iman Shumpert, and Gary Clark could be of use, as sizeable wings who won’t get pushed around. Of course, Golden State’s top-seven is a lot better than Houston’s top-10, but in a seven-game series, it could make a difference.
Last of all, the Rockets’ players still think they’re better than Golden State. To them, last year would’ve been their victory had Chris Paul played in Games 6 and 7. Of course, the Warriors could counter with the fact that Andre Iguodala was injured, but in the Rockets’ minds, they should’ve won that series. Confidence is an integral part of an athlete’s performance, and Houston shouldn’t lack it.
This is the most vulnerable Golden State has been with Kevin Durant. Of course, it’s like removing one nuclear missile from an arsenal of five—the Warriors are still capable of blowing up the world. The betting man should still pick Golden State, but we can’t help but hope this is the year the Warriors fall.
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