On July 18th, 2018, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported, “The San Antonio Spurs have traded Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to the Toronto Raptors for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and a protected 2018 first round pick, the Spurs announced Wednesday”. DeMar DeRozan was the one star who chose to stay in Toronto long term. A majority of Raptors fans felt betrayed that Masai Ujiri would trade their beloved franchise player, especially for an aloof player with a history of injuries and many unknowns. It was also on that day that I told you all, via our Per Sources social media platforms, that the Toronto Raptors had just robbed the San Antonio Spurs. Kawhi Leonard has repeatedly made my top 3 player list, while DeRozan is not on my top 20 player list. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is a major addition. However, he is not the only reason why the Toronto Raptors are much better than last season.
Let’s start off with the easy part, comparing the Raptors statistically to last season:
Toronto Raptors ’18-’19 vs [Toronto Raptors ’17-’18]:
- Points per game (3rd): 117.0 PTS -vs- [111.7 PTS (4th) last season]
- FG attempted per game (15th): 89.6 FGA -vs- [87.4 FGA (6th) last season]
- FG made per game (2nd): 44.1 FGM -vs- [41.3 FGM (3rd) last season]
- 3P attempted per game(8th): 33.5 3PA -vs- [33.0 3PA (3rd) last season]
- 3P made per game (8th): 11.8 3PA -vs- [11.8 3PM (3rd) last season]
- FT attempted per game (24th): 21.5 FTA -vs- [21.8 FTA (13th) last season]
- FT made per game (22nd): 17.0 FTM -vs- [17.3 FTM (9th) last season]
- Offensive Rating (2nd): 114.3 -vs- [112.9 (2nd) last season]
- Defensive Rating (7th): 106.0 -vs- [105.1 (5th) last season]
As you can see, at quick glance, the (18-4) ’18-’19 Toronto Raptors are putting up very similar numbers to the (59-23) ’17-’18 Toronto Raptors. They’re slightly better on the offensive end, and slightly behind on the defensive end. The Raptors are excelling in the regular season, like they always do. The question is, is how they’re doing it indicative of changes to come this playoffs? Before we move, let’s take a quick look at how the Raptors performed in the playoffs vs the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Toronto Raptors ’18 playoffs vs Cleveland [vs regular season]:
- Points per game: 104.5 PTS -vs- [111.7 in the regular season]
- FG attempted per game: 81.5 FGA -vs- [87.4 FGA in the regular season]
- FG made per game: 38.5 FGM -vs- [41.3 FGM in the regular season]
- 3P attempted per game: 26.5 3PA -vs- [33.0 3PA in the regular season]
- 3P made per game: 9.5 3PM -vs- [11.8 3PM in the regular season]
- FT attempted per game: 22.5 FTA -vs- [21.8 FTA in the regular season]
- FT made per game: 18.0 FTM -vs- [17.3 FTM in the regular season]
- Offensive Rating: 112.1 -vs- [112.9 in the regular season]
- Defensive Rating: 126.7 -vs- [105.1 in the regular season]
When the game got slower, the Raptors reverted to their old ways of moving away from shooting the three ball. In addition to that, their defense completely fell apart. The worst of all, DeMar DeRozan disappeared when they needed him most (again). Statistically, the Raptors should have been fine, but we know basketball is more than that. The players playing the game win you games, not analytics.
Why Nick Nurse’s system and the Raptors’ player development staff give me confidence that things will be different this year:
The Toronto Raptors currently average 25.5 assists per game, which is ranked 7th in the NBA. The Golden State Warriors are ranked first with 27.9 assists per game. What impresses me most about Toronto being as unselfish as they are, is that his system enables Kyle Lowry to do a lot more with the basketball. Lowry is averaging a career high in assists per game, 10.2 (6.9 last season), and has an improved field goal percentage of .463% (.427 last season). The Raptors excelled at using their bench last season. However, you need your stars to shine in the playoffs. In order to do that, you need to run a system that will carry into the playoffs. It’s not much different, but it’s putting the basketball in your best play maker’s hands a lot more.
Danny Green has been the unsung hero for the Raptors and Ibaka looks a lot healthier. In addition to that, their young core of support players are up and coming as well. Pascal Siakam has nearly doubled his scoring and has improved his 3P%. OG is slowly maturing as well. Fred VanVleet has also shown signs of improvement.
The Raptors’ young core is developing just in time in order to help their stars. Their biggest start, is the one I have most confidence in.
Kawhi Leonard is a significant upgrade over DeMar DeRozan:
It’s no secret anymore, Kawhi Leonard is back. Kawhi has proven time and time again, that when he is healthy and playing, he does not back down from anybody. The last time we saw Leonard in the playoffs, the Spurs were up 20 against the Golden State Warriors. His resume speaks for itself. Leonard’s resume include: NBA champion, an NBA Finals MVP, 2x All-NBA First Team, 2x NBA Defensive Player of the Year, 3x NBA All-Defensive First Team. DeRozan has never won a championship, made an All-NBA First Team, or won any defensive accolades in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive anchor, and has evolved into an elite scorer with a Kobe-esque offensive game. His presence instills fear into his opponents on both ends of the court.
More importantly, Kawhi Leonard has proven he can beat LeBron James. DeMar DeRozan was benched game 3 vs LeBron and the Cavs in a game where he scored just 8 points (3-12 shooting) with a -23, his worst plus/minus of the season.
“As in years past, DeRozan has struggled to translate his regular-season performance to the playoffs. Through nine playoff games, he’s shooting 43.6% from the field and 28.6% from deep, off his season averages of 45.6% and 31.2 3P%. Against Cleveland, DeRozan’s bread-and-butter has dried up: He’s attempted a total of seven free throws in three games after averaging seven attempts per game for the season.
His supposed improvement as a three-point shooter has also completely failed to materialize: Sixteen different players in this series have hit at least one three-pointer, but DeRozan (0-9 through three games) isn’t one of them. ” (Ben Golliver, Sports Illustrated)
Believe it or not, Kawhi Leonard is now much better than he was in 2014 when he won the NBA Finals MVP:
In summary, there are multiple factors which lead me to believe that the Raptors will be a much better post season team, with Kawhi Leonard being the one major factor:
The Raptors are having a great regular season and added two guys with championship experience.
Perhaps the one surprising thing you’re going to take from this article is how good the Raptors were last season. If you really think about it, the Raptors were an elite regular season team that completely imploded against LeBron James. They lacked toughness. Casey didn’t trust Lowry as much as he should have. They lacked the discipline to commit to spreading the floor with the three ball. There are numerous footages of DeRozan and Casey paying way too much respect to LeBron James before and after getting their butts kicked. Their young guns were afraid because their leaders were afraid.
A Kawhi Leonard led team will not have that problem.
Do you think the Raptors will be representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals this year? Tweet me, @TPRx11, and let me know your thoughts.
Per Sources Misses Nothing.