The 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament will be played April 12-15; the 2022 NBA Playoffs will begin on April 16, 2022.With the 2022 NBA Playoffs right around the corner, it’s the perfect time to start ranking the participating teams.
I will be ranking the 2022 NBA Playoffs teams based on who I determine to be the best teams, not based on particular matchups, as the playoffs brackets are not set yet. Matchups do matter.
If you are new here, I have accurately predicted the NBA champion every year since 2008 with the exception of 2011. Obsessing over understand what made the 2011 Mavericks champions has opened my eyes to truly understanding winning in the NBA.
While everyone was obsessed over the Los Angeles Lakers, I was focused on the Golden State Warriors.
If you prefer a video format of this article, you can watch it here.
How I analyze and rank NBA Playoffs teams.
When ranking NBA playoffs teams, I look at a few factors include advanced stats, their roster, their improvement or decline during the season, and numerous other factors. The three most important statistics to me are offensive rating, defensive rating, and assist %.
How I look at advanced NBA team stats.
Here is some advanced NBA team stats data of NBA champions since 2008. I often find that teams lower in AST% won championships when their opponents or path included injuries. Example, the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks were often considered the dumbest team in NBA history to make the NBA Finals because of their low basketball IQ, indicated by their inability to move the basketball. The Lakers beat a Celtics team with an injury to their starting center.
When examining matchups, understanding how teams score and why they’re great defenders matters. The one statistic that doesn’t lie to me is AST%. Unpredictable offenses are difficult to beat.
2021-2022 advanced NBA team stats.
I used a spreadsheet to rank initial key stats for the teams currently in the 2022 NBA Playoffs standings or Play-In standings.
Here are the 2022 NBA Playoffs teams rankings.
I will be rankings the 2022 NBA Playoff teams based on numerous factors, but also taking health into consideration. With guys like Paul George, Jamal Murray, and Ben Simmons potentially returning into the line ups, stats can be misleading.
1. Golden State Warriors
Although 1,005 days is a long time, I did not forget what the trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green were capable of. Combine that dynasty trio with a cast of talented youth, there is very little reason to doubt the Warriors. Chemistry and continuity matters. Defense matters. The Warriors have the perfect blend of well coached youth and veterans to get the job done.
Assuming they remain healthy, I would not be surprised if the Warriors blew out opponents repeatedly in the western conference playoffs.
2. Brooklyn Nets
The main concern about the Brooklyn Nets is the availability of their stars. In addition to that, they have almost no continuity and do not defend at the level that is necessary to win an NBA championship. For most of us, we are putting our faith in a relatively healthy Nets team.
Quite frankly, if you replace Kevin Durant with just about anyone else in the league right now, I would not be picking the Nets. However, this version of Kevin Durant is a very difficult man to beat.
3. Miami Heat
The Miami Heat check all the boxes but one for me. They don’t have what most people would consider a top 5 player in the NBA. However, their star player makes everyone else so much better. Combine that with the depth of talent that Miami has and how they score the basketball, the Miami Heat are a very dangerous team.
4. Phoenix Suns
I was in the camp of people with the opinion that the Suns would not have made the NBA Finals last season if it weren’t for the abundance of injuries in the western conference. The 2022 NBA Playoffs is their opportunity to prove me wrong.
I’m very skeptical of the Suns. I’ve never trusted Chris Paul. In addition to that, I’ve yet to see Devin Booker elevate to the level necessary to take over games and instill fear in his opponents. If there was ever a time to evolve and channel his inner Kobe Bryant, it would be this season.
5. Denver Nuggets
If the Denver Nuggets were 100% healthy, they would be my 2nd favorites in the western conference. The Denver Nuggets check all the boxes for me. Their offense is unpredictable, they defend, and have a top 5-10 superstar. The question of how deep the Denver Nuggets can go solely depends on the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Without those guys, the Nuggets are a tough out. With them, they are contenders.
6. Boston Celtics
If I trusted the Boston Celtics, I’d rank them as high as 2nd on this list. However, I can make an argument that the Celtics shouldn’t be top 10 on this list. Yes, they have the no.1 defense. Yes, their AST % over the last couple months has shot up drastically. The Celtics are almost impossible to beat when they move the ball.
My skepticism of the Boston Celtics stems from their lack of ball movement when things get tough. They only had 16 assists in a loss to the Dallas Mavericks on March 13th.
The Celtics still need to prove to me that they can move the basketball versus frustrating defensive teams before I have more faith in them.
Note: They could improve highly on this list before the season ends.
7. Milwaukee Bucks
I am a massive Giannis Antetokounmpo fan. He is a top 3 superstar and a worthy role model to many. I shouldn’t be doubting him. However, the Bucks are still very predictable on the offensive end and the eastern conference has gotten a lot better. If the Bucks continue to not move the ball, they are going to struggle win series as they did last year.
8. Utah Jazz
The Jazz haven’t changed anything about their team in years and expect different results. Their offense is predictable. They shoot a lot. They could upset someone really good. They could get blown out by someone really bad. I have very little faith in the Utah Jazz’s ability to make it to the NBA Finals. However, they are solid enough to beat most teams listed below.
9. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks check a couple of my boxes. They have a top 10 player and they defend well. The issue with them is they remind me of the James Harden Rockets. I’d like to see the ball move a bit more. Luka rises up to correct many of their mistakes, just not enough to dominate the western conference.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The 2022 Timberwolves are giving their fans a breath of fresh air this season. They still need to prove that they can win when it matters. At their best, they’ll be a tough out for many teams. They’re heating up at the right time and I am very excited to see how this team performs.
11. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are a perfect blend of fun youth and veterans. If healthy, the Cavaliers can matchup with almost anyone in the eastern conference. Scoring in the paint vs Allen and Mobley is almost impossible. Garland is emerging as a star. Love, Rubio, and Osman provide much needed veteran leadership off the bench.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
I loved the way the Grizzlies played without Ja Morant in the lineup. However, in order to win, they’re going to need Ja Morant. The problem with Morant in the line up is the offense is somewhat predictable. Yes they are very physical and Ja can light up any team on any given night. However, the Dallas Mavericks gave us the blue print to beat the Grizzlies.
I think this predictable offense is a little easier to figure out than most people think.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
Many people will doubt my credibility solely on my opinion of the Philadelphia 76ers. I’ll admit, at their best, they should be a legitimate contender. Here are my concerns.
- Joel Embiid is risking his health by pushing for the regular season MVP.
- James Harden is a career choker.
- They have little to no bench scoring.
- Doc Rivers.
Those are one too many concerns for me to have faith in the 76ers.
14. Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are a team without an identity, mostly due to health. They are very hard to figure out. Ideally, they are a tough defensive team that plays a fast pace style of basketball. Many are relying on DeRozan to be an MVP level player in the playoffs. I’ve shared my concerns on our YouTube page if you’d like to watch.
15. Los Angeles Clippers
Considering the abundance of injuries that the Clippers have had, Ty Lue and company have had an impressive season. If Paul George were to return, the Clippers would be a very tough out. I don’t think Kawhi Leonard is coming back.
16. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks should be way better than they have been this season. They have the talent to be decent. Trae Young has shown us that he can put on a team on his back before. The question is, can he do it again? Doubtful. The eastern conference has gotten a lot better.
17. Toronto Raptors
I hate teams that don’t move the basketball. Isolation basketball doesn’t work. The Raptors play with high energy but losing to them would be embarrassing for a good team.
18. Charlotte Hornets
They’re very fun. They just stink on defense. They struggle vs big men and the eastern conference is full of decent ones.
19. New Orleans Pelicans
Is Zion ever coming back?
20. Los Angeles Lakers
The biggest question related to the Lakers is do they even want to win? Do they want to be in the playoffs? Is LeBron James simply focused on chasing Kareem’s record? Is Anthony Davis going to roll another ankle?
We’ve all learned to never doubt LeBron James. I’m just not sure he or the Lakers truly want it.
The 2022 NBA Playoffs will be fun.
In the end, the real winners are the fans.
Care to debate my list? Tweet me @PerSources.