Is A Khalil Mack Trade Really A Possibility?

By
PerSources Contributor
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Khalil Mack Trade

 

To date, there have been 29 trades in the NBA this offseason, 33 in the NHL, and prior to the MLB waiver trade deadline, there have been 43 trades. NFL teams have made 59 of them this offseason, but only 22 of them were either a) not consummated on draft day, or b) involved players. That’s where things get tricky.

This offseason has ranked among one of the more notable ones in NFL history, as multiple big-name players have changed zip codes. The Philadelphia Eagles traded for Michael Bennett. Jason Pierre-Paul is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. The Cleveland Browns made moves for Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor. The Los Angeles Rams traded for Brandin Cooks, Aqib Talib, and Marcus Peters. This many moves including this many star talents is borderline unprecedented, which makes it that much harder for the Raiders to gauge Khalil Mack’s trade value.

Mack is considered a generational talent by some. Others think he’s “just” a very good player. Personally, I fall somewhere in the middle, but there’s no denying his God-given ability.

Since coming into the league Khalil Mack has accrued the following in his four-year career:

  • 2014 NFL All-Rookie Team
  • 3 consecutive Pro-Bowl appearances (2015-17)
  • First Team All-Pro (2015-16)
  • 2016 NFL AP Defensive Player of the Year
  • 231 tackles
  • 40.5 sacks

Mack’s 40.5 sacks leads all players from the 2014 NFL Draft class, while his total tackles rank eighth compared to his fellow “classmates.” Not too shabby for a linebacker who was drafted in the same class as guys like Aaron Donald (another fellow holdout), Anthony Barr, Jadeveon Clowney, etc.

So, why would the Raiders consider trading Mack?

Before we go any further, this article is NOT a plea to the Raiders to trade Mack. Despite the impasse the organization appears to be at with (one of) their star players, he’s not someone that can be easily replaced. At the end of the day, the NFL is a business, and if the Raiders do decide the best move is not pay Mack, then that’s their prerogative.

$65 million is a lot of money in and of itself, but that’s only the potential guaranteed portion of a new Mack contract. Many view Von Miller’s six-year, $114 million as the starting point for the Raiders and Mack, possibly even surpassing that figure. Is Mack worth that much money? Should the Raiders pay him that much money?

Let’s just say the Raiders give Mack a deal like Miller’s. That would make Mack the second-highest-paid player on Oakland’s roster, a few million dollars behind franchise quarterback Derek Carr. That would make sense on the surface, as many have pegged Mack and Carr as two of Oakland’s building blocks. One of Oakland’s recent moves with their franchise left tackle would suggest the Raiders are trying to save money, not spend more:

On top of that, the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas, which costs a lot of money. In a way, it makes sense the front office is a little hesitant to shell out a ton of money to just one player; even one of Mack’s caliber. So, let’s find him a new home.

Khalil Mack trade

Finding equal value in any potential trade in professional sports is impossible, mainly because someone is always going to (try to) make a case for how “x” side got fleeced, should’ve received more, yadda yadda yadda. Oakland has a disgruntled star on their hands. What they “should” be getting in return is not what they “would” be getting. Luckily, the Chiefs recently made a trade including a player just like that.

Marcus Peters is one of the best cornerbacks the league has to offer, but the Chiefs didn’t want to pay him what he felt he was worth, nor deal with his reported hot-headedness. They shipped him to the Rams with a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft for a fourth-round pick this year and a second-round pick next year. Many viewed the trade as a terrible return for the Chiefs, but it’s not like the Rams would be shipping out multiple first-rounders for a team they had leverage on; the same position the Raiders are in.

Any team looking to make a trade for Mack knows they have leverage, and the Raiders know that. Teams would obviously love to give up as little as possible, but Mack is among the league’s elite defenders, so they’re going to have to pay if they want him, and the Raiders know that too.

There’s some precedent for this type of situation. Buffalo traded for RB LeSean McCoy in exchange for LB Kiko Alonso. The difference from then to now is that Alonso was coming off an ACL tear. Mack has played and started in all 64 games of his career. Every team would love to add a Khalil Mack to their team, but not every team can; at least without not going over the cap. Let’s whittle down the contenders.

Vegas recently released the teams that have the best odds of trading for Mack:

Of those teams, only one has the cap space to offer the rumored amount of money Mack seeks – the New York Jets, and they aren’t a lock, with roughly $16.8 in cap space, which may be out of Mack’s price range. For now, let’s put the Jets as an asterisk and look at the teams that could pay Mack what he wants.

Here’s the full list:

  • Cleveland Browns
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Houston Texans
  • Tennesse Titans
  • Chicago Bears

Going in reverse order, the Bears are pretty set at linebacker. They have Leonard Floyd, Danny Trevathan, their first-round draft pick from this year Roquan Smith, and Aaron Lynch. Bears GM Ryan Pace could try to dump Trevathan’s contract by attaching a first or second-round pick, but despite the solid offseason the Bears had, they’re still rebuilding and need all the help they can get in a tough division with the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions.

The Bears also run a 3-4 defense, which is different than the 4-3 defense the Raiders will run this season.

TL:DR: They’re likely out.

The Titans spent a chunk of money this offseason on Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, and Malcolm Butler. While they could probably pay Mack, their linebacking corps is still solid, even though it’s more of a veteran group: Derrick Morgan, Avery Williamson, Wesley Woodyard, and Brian Orakpo. It’s not a position of glaring need, so the Titans are out.

The Texans are interesting. Deshaun Watson is recovering from an ACL tear but has looked great in offseason workout videos. J.J. Watt is also recovering from a season-ending injury, but he’s looking good as well. Pair that with the offseason addition of the Honey Badger (Tyrann Mathieu) and what they already had in Whitney Mercilus, Bernardrick McKinney, and Jadeveon Clowney, you’d think the defense was already good enough. That doesn’t mean it can’t get better.

Acquiring Mack would allow Mercilus to transition into more of a rotational role, keeping the older members of the defense fresh. Mark them down as a hard maybe.

The 49ers make a ton of sense for two reasons: they too have a disgruntled star and their linebacking corps is weak. The difference? Reuben Foster is on his rookie contract but is facing off-field issues, while Mack is seeking a new contract and is just off the practice field.

The 49ers would be upgrading their LB corps and securing a franchise cornerstone, while the Raiders would be acquiring a cheap, young, and immensely talented player, a player that fits perfectly in head coach Jon Gruden’s intense culture.

The Colts make sense on paper but are probably the least likely destination for Mack, solely because Mack isn’t likely to re-sign with a team with more question marks than the ones that are on the Riddler’s suits. They’re out like Josh McDaniels. (Too soon?)

That leaves the fresh off a winless season Cleveland Browns. They’ve already made waves this offseason by trading for Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry, while also drafting Baker Mayfield first overall in this year’s draft. They could certainly afford Mack’s price tag with over $50 million remaining in cap space, but they already have Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins manning the outside linebacker spots; not to mention a lot of money tied into those two players. Unless they’re suddenly discontent with either player, they’re out of the Mack sweepstakes. Who does that leave?

Well, the 49ers and the Texans were listed as maybes, so let’s give them both trade scenarios:

49ers receive: Khalil Mack, 2019 3rd round pick (via OAK) 
Raiders receive: Reuben Foster, 3rd round pick (via SF)

And for the team in Houston:

Texans receive: Khalil Mack
Oakland receives: 2019 2nd rounder (via HOU), 2019 5th rounder (via HOU)

There’s one more team that hasn’t been mentioned that would make sense as a trade partner – the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings have had a busy offseason, re-signing Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, while adding Kirk Cousins and Sheldon Richardson. Vikings GM Rick Spielman re-signing Diggs and Hunter before linebacker Anthony Barr may be telling or may not mean anything. If the Vikings do decide they don’t want to bring back Barr, would they consider swapping him out for Khalil Mack?

Vikings receive: Khalil Mack
Raiders receive: Anthony Barr

A player for player swap? At the same position? Yes – and here’s why.

Yes, the Raiders would be in a similar situation with Barr that they are currently in with Mack, but Barr would (obviously) see that the Raiders wanted him. In today’s NFL, players may say that they want loyalty over financial security, but it’s hard to have both. Barr could have the latter.

The Vikings add Mack who they could still re-sign and sell on what they’re building.

What do you guys think? Should the Raiders trade Khalil Mack? If so, would you pull the trigger on any of these hypothetical deals? Do you have one of your own? Let me know in the comments below!

@_Mason_Jar

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