Eight weeks into the 2019 NFL season, the New England Patriots are still undefeated. Their defense has been considered one of the best in the league, earning comparisons to the 1985 Bears and 2000 Ravens. They’ve allowed 61 points through eight games. The 2000 Ravens allowed 89 in their first eight, and the 1985 Bears allowed 114. There’s no doubt this team has been impressive, but until this week, the Patriots have yet to face a true test.
In the first eight weeks of the season, New England faced a schedule with an overall record of 14-37 (.378 winning percentage). The Jets (twice), Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins aren’t exactly a gauntlet. However, the Steelers still had Ben Roethlisberger at the time of their match-up which should make that game a little more meaningful. Still, the Patriots haven’t had the stiffest competition halfway through the 2019 campaign.
Enter Lamar Jackson and the 5-2 Ravens. Now, you may be saying “Mike, isn’t 5-2 the same record as the Buffalo Bills?” Yes. Yes, it is. However, you can’t look me in the eye and tell me that Baltimore’s offense is on par with Buffalo’s. Oh? You don’t believe me? Let’s check the numbers. In terms of points per game, the Ravens are SECOND in the NFL, behind only the Patriots. Are yards more your thing? The Ravens are SECOND in total yards, behind only Dallas.
New England showed they may have a bit of a weakness against the run this year. Prehistoric Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards against New England. Last week, Nick Chubb hit the Patriots’ D to the tune of 131 yards. Baltimore, behind Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson, have rushed the ball for an average of 204 yards per game. Ingram is a legitimate power-back with a surprising burst, and Jackson has become a true runner from the QB position (not just a QB who scrambles).
On top of those two, Baltimore deploys rookie WR Hollywood Brown and breakout TE Mark Andrews. I really like their WR2, Willie Snead, and he’s earned himself an extension that was handed out this past week. Even back-up RB Gus Edwards has given them something to be happy about. Their offense has a chance to be one of the best in the league. Lamar Jackson has proven he’s a starting QB in this league and his passing ability is passable. If he can continue to grow and improve, the sky is the limit for him.
How will the Patriots combat this offense?
It’s always tough to guess what the Patriots will do with any part of their team because they’re more than willing to completely scrap everything they’ve done for the first eight weeks if they want. However, I believe you may see some man coverage from Stephon Gilmore on Hollywood Brown. The rest of the team may be in a zone with a controlled rush. “Zero blitzes” may still be effective against Baltimore, but it’s even more dangerous with an athlete like Brown on the field.
The last time New England faced a true “dual-threat QB” was Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in 2012 – a game I was at and remember all too well. Instead of lining up their best athletes (six or seven DBs), the Patriots put out their bigger guys. Wilfork played all but one snap on defense. They used Kyle Love a lot as well. Kaepernick didn’t set the world on fire that day. He rushed for 28 yards on seven carries. The 49ers went on to beat the Patriots that day, but they stopped Kaep.
I don’t expect that same game plan. We probably won’t see a front of Shelton, Guy, Butler, Wise, Roberts, Hightower, and Van Noy all that frequently.
While the Patriots’ defense has been rolling, the offense has looked middle-of-the-pack despite scoring the most points in the league. A lot of those drives were short drives set up by turnovers, and I’m sure the scoring numbers include defensive scores which seem to come at least once a week. Luckily for New England, the Ravens’ defense haven’t exactly been world-beaters.
Their 22.3 points allowed per game is pretty much right where I expect this game to finish. With Tom Brady, I always expect a bit more than most quarterbacks in the league, so I’d bet the Patriots finish with roughly 25 points. Julian Edelman, James White, Mohamed Sanu (in his second week), and N’Keal Harry (fresh off IR) could be more effective than what the Patriots have been working with so far.
This is the biggest test for the Patriots this season, but I expect them to hold off the Ravens. In my mind, I see a 10-point win coming. New England’s defense will continue to see success against an impressive Ravens’ offense, likely holding them to 14 or 17. Patriots win and cover.