There was a time when he averaged 26 points and 13 rebounds. He has set a career high 31 rebounds in a game in the same game he scored 31 points. Not five year ago was he on pace to average 29 and 15 in a season. But he now averages 18 and 9; nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from the stats that would’ve put this man on the Mount Rushmore of Power Forwards. Yet, recently, he’s become a Lone Ranger like he once was and will be asked to carry his team out of the cellar and into playoff contention. He may post career numbers once again and come back into the conversation of all-time great. Welcome to the Kevin Love comeback.
Love was, as already mentioned, on pace to average 29 points and 15 rebounds in a season. While playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves, he posted career highs in points per game twice in three years, interrupted by an injury-ended 2012-13 season. As shown on the graph below, Love could’ve, in theory, provided his team with career highs in points for three consecutive years, from 2013-2016. In the same vein, he could’ve given his second, third, fourth, and fifth best rebounding years from 2014-2018.
However, in 2014, Kevin Love was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers to play with, perhaps the greatest player of all-time, LeBron James. James averaged 26.1 points and 7.7 rebounds while playing with Love, diminishing the role and effect Love could (and did) have on the team. Compare the aforementioned projected per year stats to Love’s actual career stats in Cleveland with LeBron. Love, on average, had 10.6 points and 4.3 rebounds less than he could’ve, without the presence of LeBron.
That’s not to say Love wasn’t as efficient as ever. Last year, he scored his second highest amount of points per FGA. Instead, it’s a matter of less shooting opportunities. For most of his stint in Cleveland, Love was the third option (behind James and Kyrie Irving). Even when Kyrie was traded to Boston, Love was shooting only 12 times per game. Had he shot as often last year as he did the year he scored 26.1 a game, Kevin Love could’ve posted a career high in scoring, 26.3 PPG.
But LeBron has left for LA. He is going to write the final chapter of his storied career on the sunny beaches on California. Love, on the other hand, is staying in the Rust Belt. He now is the only Cavalier making over $20 Million a year and recently signed a four-year extension. He’s expected to be the Cavs leader, both in the box score and the locker room. Minnesota Kevin Love will be back. He’s slated to average 25pointst next year, per the earlier projections. If he were to do that, he could become the seventh player ever to have averaged 25 points and 10 rebounds in a season post-30.
With few players to rival his ball dominance in Cleveland, Love likely will exceed 25 PPG. As the team’s first scoring option, LeBron James shot 19 times per game last year. He was the only player to average more than 13 shots per game for the Cavs, allowing him to dominate the scoring. With James out of the limelight in Cleveland, Love will likely take a majority of those shots. When Love was the only Timberwolf to shoot more than 11 times a game, he averaged 26. Now, as the first-option, Love will have a nearly identical opportunity, with no one other current Cavalier averaging more than 11 shots per game last year. With this increased volume of shooting, Love could potentially lead the league in scoring should he remain the efficient scorer he is.
As for rebounds, that’s less predictable. Coach Lue doesn’t appear to ask much in terms of player rebounding. His Cavaliers were 23rd in total rebounds last year; the Kurt Rambis Timberwolves were first when Love averaged 15.2 boards. This may be partly due to Cleveland allowing the third-highest opponent field goal percentage, 47.4%. Can the Cavs lower that to give Love more opportunities under the basket? They drafted PG Collin Sexton, heralded as an intense, aggressive defender. Cleveland also signed forward Okaro White, an elite ball hawk in college who hasn’t yet found his home in the NBA. These additions, as well as the loss of weaker defenders such as Jose Calderon and Jeff Green (the 391st and 155th worst defenders, per NBA.com), could allow more rebounds to come to Love.
This season’s improvement for Love could be reminiscent of the recent jump of scoring for Russell Westbrook. The similarities between the two are almost poetic: both were supporting cast for two of the greatest Small Forward of all-time, in cities more recognized for the products they produce than their sports teams. After playing second fiddle to Kevin Durant in OKC for years, Westbrook took off, increasing his scoring by 8.1 points when KD left (and averaging a triple double in the process). Now that LeBron has left for LA, Love can match, if not exceed, the benchmark for players coming into their own; or in Love’s case, returning to glory.
Kevin Love will undoubtedly see a significant increase in both his scoring and rebounding, and bring back memories of his younger days. However, with more playing experience and having learned from the King, Love will be back and better than ever before. This is the Kevin Love comeback season.