He was the highest paid QB in the league for a minute. He won the first eight games he started in New England and San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo was living high at the end of the 2017 season. After dealing with his first real bump in the NFL in the form of his first loss, Jimmy Garoppolo’s season and career were altered.
Late in the fourth quarter of their Week 3 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, Garoppolo was forced out of the pocket and tried to score to give the Niners a chance to defeat the eventual AFC runner-up. With the game on the line, he could’ve just ducked out of bounds and taken the 4th-and-Goal from the 15-yard line. Instead, Jimmy G made a cut to get closer or even score. His knee buckled, and he immediately dropped to the ground. It was a non-contact injury – the dreaded ACL.
Coming off of an ACL injury is never easy. We take the recovery for granted, expecting guys to be back to full-form within 10 months. The truth is, every case is drastically different. Guys like Adrian Peterson changed the perception of those returning from the old career-ender. In December 2011, AP tore his ACL and MCL. Nine months later, he was back on the field. And, he didn’t just play like a normal RB. AP played all 16 games, rushed for over 2,000 yards, scored 12 rushing touchdowns, and was named both Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP. That’s incredible. It completely flipped the script for ACL recoveries and comebacks.
Obviously, quarterbacks are a different animal. To some, it may appear easier to return as a QB because of the lack of cutting. Overall, that’s probably true. Again, however, each case is different. Let’s look at the most recent cases of QBs returning from ACL tears.
Three QBs made their returns from ACL surgery in 2018 – Ryan Tannehill (Miami), Carson Wentz (Philadelphia), and Deshaun Watson (Houston). This is a good mix of guys because it shows the array of possibilities for a QB post-ACL.
Tannehill was the worst of the bunch. He missed all of 2017 after suffering the injury during training camp. In his returning season, Tannehill struggled. He missed four weeks due to a shoulder injury, but if you extrapolate his stats out to a full season, Tannehill would’ve put up roughly 2,900 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Those aren’t great numbers, and there were some factors outside his control (his lack of weapons and the aforementioned shoulder injury, to name a few), but the fact is: he wasn’t effective.
Wentz, in 2017, was on his way to becoming the MVP in just his second season before tearing his ACL. He returned in just over nine months from the surgery, and while he enjoyed success personally, the team struggled to a 5-6 record. In a key matchup against the Saints, a true chance to assess the team, Wentz threw for just 156 yards, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Nearing the end of the season, with Wentz dealing with a back injury and the Eagles on the ropes, the team decided to sit the QB for the remainder of the season in favor of Nick Foles. Foles would go on to win the last three games to bring Philadelphia to another playoff birth. Wentz was on pace for full season stats of just under 4,500 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Those numbers would’ve placed him sixth in yards and ninth in touchdowns.
Deshaun Watson was looking great in his rookie year prior to the ACL injury. He would’ve been in the running with Alvin Kamara for Offensive Rookie of the Year. After tearing his ACL in November of 2017, he worked hard and returned in 10 months at the beginning of the 2018 campaign. What Watson did from there was pretty remarkable. He started all 16 games and brought the Texans to an 11-5 record (first in the AFC South). In those 16 games, Watson threw for 4,165 yards (11th), 26 touchdowns (12th), nine interceptions (10th fewest for all QBs with at least 10 starts). Again, this was only Watson’s second season, and he missed half of first.
What does this all mean for Garoppolo? Not a lot, really. As I’ve stressed, each case is different. Each QB plays a little different than the other 31. For Garoppolo, he tends to use his legs to escape pressure, but I wouldn’t describe him as a runner. This will likely make it a little difficult for him to return to his pre-ACL level of play. It might not be all physical either. Knowing that making a cut and running was what got him hurt might keep him from extending plays and bailing out his team. That’s a similar issue to what we saw from Wentz. The year prior, he was making big-time play after big-time play. Post-injury, he was still good, but he wasn’t doing all of the extra stuff to extend plays and bail his team out. This could be something we see with Garoppolo during this season.
I expect Garoppolo to have a solid first season back. If I had to play out the numbers, I’d say he’ll throw for roughly 3,500 yards with 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The offense got better with the additions of Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel (R), and Jalen Hurd (R) and the return of Jerrick McKinnon. Hopefully, Garoppolo can learn to be patient and lean on his weapons, especially his RBs and TEs. If he can do that and ease back into it, I think he’ll be just fine.