Uh-oh, trouble in paradise. Last season, The Sacramento Kings were one of the darlings of the NBA world when they blew past all projections to finish 39-43 and just barely missed the playoffs. With recent news regarding contract troubles with Bogan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield, however, the Sacramento Kings’ future might be in jeopardy.
The Kings chose to build on last year’s improvement by signing role players—lots and lots of role players. Separately, none of these deals are particularly damaging. Dewayne Dedmon for three years, $40 million might be a bit of an overpay, but it’s not debilitating considering the team’s lack of centers. Joseph for three years, $37.2 million is certainly questionable but defendable considering the added depth he provides.
Problems come when you combine all these deals together. Just this season alone, the Kings will be paying Cory Joseph, Harrison Barnes, Dewayne Dedmon, and Trevor Ariza $55 million combined. That’s over half of the $109 million soft salary cap set by the NBA. Barnes’ new deal is particularly heavy, at $85 million fully guaranteed over four seasons.
The big problem is that Sacramento still hasn’t locked up any members of their young core to long-term deals. Players like Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox are the most important pieces to the Kings’ future success, but so far, Sacramento has had no luck securing them.
The Kings offered Bogdan Bogdanovic a four-year, $51 million extension and Buddy Hield a four-year $90 million deal, but neither has accepted. Hield has gone as far as to call the offer “insulting”. And, can you really blame him? It’s customary in the NBA to overpay young, potential stars, not aging role players en masse like the Kings have. It’s probably mind-boggling to Hield how Sacramento has prioritized Cory Joseph over himself.
They can offer both players up to 25% of the salary cap, which would boil down to roughly $27 million a year right now. As great as Hield is, he’s just not worth that. He’s already 27 years old, and the room to grow is small. Although he complements Fox perfectly, he’ll likely never live up to a $27 million annual wage. The same goes for Bogdanovic, who’s also already 27 years old. It seems like Bogdanovic is seeking a deal closer to $20 million annually, which along with Hield’s new contract, would catapult Sacramento deep into the luxury tax.
If Sacramento paid Hield and Bogdanovic the amount they’re demanding, their 2020-21 payroll shoots up to nearly $150 million. This leads to a luxury tax total of over $160 million added to the original $150 million payroll, all for a team that’s probably not even going to be a contender. And, with the salary cap potentially lowering due to the new crisis in China, the cost can only rise.
Not to mention, Sacramento still needs to scrape together the money to extend De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III soon. Fox will be eligible for his extension in 2020, and Bagley can get his in 2021. The Kings already have $60 million wrapped up in the four role players mentioned above in 2020-2021, and that’s not counting Nemanja Bjelica’s $7 million deal or Hield/Bogdanovic’s potential salary.
Then, in 2021-22, the Kings still owe Harrison Barnes $22 million, Dewayne Dedmon $13.3 million, and Cory Joseph $12.6 million. And, that’s not counting the potential max deals of Hield, Bogdanovic, and Fox. In addition, the luxury tax only rises every time a team goes over the cap in consecutive years.
The logical thing to do is buy out Dedmon’s, Joseph’s, and Bjelica’s contracts then, right? This seems counterintuitive, however. After all, Sacramento did just sign them. The Kings would also be losing valuable depth for nothing, making their roster worse.
Of course, Sacramento could try trading these players away, but that’s not as simple as you might think. The Kings would have to take back equal salary in return, which doesn’t help the situation at all. The alternative is trading these contracts to a team with ample cap space, meaning Sacramento wouldn’t have to take back any money in return. Moves like these don’t come cheap, however, and the Kings would surrender a draft pick or two. All that just to get rid of contracts signed just last summer to retain a core that didn’t even break .500 last year.
Fox is the only player of the bunch who Sacramento should be comfortable giving the max to. There’s a high possibility that Hield and Bogdanovic have already capped out at age 27, and Bagley’s a wild card. For all we know, Fox may be the only one who ever makes an All-Star team.
So, things are looking pretty terrible in Sacramento. With no cap space and a middling market, how can the Kings pay all their players?
Luckily, one bit of foresight might’ve saved Sacramento—the power of partially guaranteed contracts.
2020-21 will be a headache either way, but Sacramento could cut ties with both Bjelica and Ariza easily. The Kings can waive Bjelica before the season, and Ariza’s deal is only guaranteed for $1.8 million. It would hurt the on-court basketball product if Sacramento waived them, but the cap space would finally have some breathing room. It frees up close to $17 million, which could go to Bogdanovic’s salary.
Dedmon’s and Joseph’s are also only partially guaranteed in 2021-22. Once again, Sacramento would lose two key contributors if they waived both of them. At the same time, it frees up close to $26 million in cap space. That’s right on time for Bagley’s new extension, assuming the Kings re-sign him.
The Kings’ front office has their hands full. Sacramento overplayed their hand this summer, and now they’re scrambling to recover. You have to spend big money to win big games, but this isn’t the right way to go about it. They should’ve forked over the money to the young stars and underpaid the role players—not the other way around. This type of backwards thinking hamstrung the Kings in the past, and it’s screwing with their future now. Hopefully, with a bit of space magic and a lot of negotiating, the Kings can bring all of their young core back.
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