I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Jimmy Butler is a Philadelphia 76er. Not only does this tighten up the race for the top of the East significantly, but with the Rockets struggling, Anthony Davis dealing with injuries, and LeBron currently outside of the Playoffs, it forces us to ask: Is the East Good Again?
For years, fans of the NBA have complained about how “weak” the Eastern Conference is compared to the West.
This isn’t without reason. Over the past twenty years (right after the Michael Jordan-Bulls dynasty ended), an Eastern team has won the championship only six times. The “dynasties” of the past two decades have mostly been Western teams, from the Kobe-Shaq Lakers of the early 2000’s to the Duncan-Popovich Spurs era to the current Golden State Warriors. On lists of recent All-Star snubs, Western Conference players like Damian Lillard, Paul George, Chris Paul, and Lou Williams lead the pack (maybe have a good game against Joel Embiid this season before you complain, Drummond).
Last year’s All-NBA First-Team consists entirely of current Western Conference Players. Last season, while the Timberwolves and the Nuggets competed down to the last game to make it to the Playoffs with a 47-35 record, the dysfunctional and lazy Washington Wizards coasted their way into the postseason winning only 43 games on the season despite losing seven of their last 10 games.
It got to the point last season that analysts and media members frequently said something to the effect of “the Western Conference Finals is the real championship series this year.” Let’s be real, they weren’t wrong. The Rockets and the Warriors were far and away the best two teams last season, and no one else came close in terms of talent and performance. LeBron’s Cavaliers didn’t stand a chance against either of them, Toronto was never going to surpass LeBron while he was in the East, and the Celtics clearly lacked consistency and experience. Once the Warriors beat the Rockets, Adam Silver could’ve handed them the Larry O’Brien and the only thing of value that would’ve been lost is the J.R. scoreboard moment.
Okay, so quick maths.
You take an already weak conference, subtract LeBron James, and what do you get?
A healthier, more competitive conference.
Wait, what?
Let’s break this down from the top.
The current top five teams in the East are the Raptors, Bucks, Pacers, Celtics, and Sixers.
The Raptors and Bucks have already proven that they’re legitimate Finals contenders behind the efforts of new head coaches.
Toronto has rallied behind new head coach Nick Nurse and MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard to an opening 11-1 record.
Kyle Lowry has had a career year following the unceremonious trade of his best friend DeMar DeRozan. I expect a lot of the Raptors’ numbers will fall off, especially for Danny Green and Serge Ibaka, and Lowry’s shooting has already come down a bit from a hot start to the season, but Toronto is legit on both ends of the floor and have serious depth. The question isn’t whether they’re good, but whether they can continue to be this good deep into the playoffs, and that’s a great place to be for any team.
Toronto’s one loss came to Milwaukee, who look like a new team under Mike Budenholzer.
Giannis, despite shooting less than 10% from beyond the arc, already looks more unstoppable than ever. Much of this comes from the spacing the Bucks have placed around him, with stretch bigs like Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova clearing out the paint for Giannis to work his magic and great 3-and-D pieces like Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell filling out much of the backcourt. Khris Middleton, having taken up the Damian Lillard mantle of being NBA Twitter’s favorite “underrated” player, is shooting an absurd .457 3P%, which would be his career high if he sustained it over the season. Even noted role player Eric Bledsoe had a good game in their blowout against the Warriors. Oh yeah, the Bucks blew out (Draymond Green-less) Golden State.
The Bucks’ depth chart is a little shallow compared to Boston and Toronto. However, with a top-three player in Giannis and a system that’s maximizing the talent around him, there’s no doubt that Milwaukee can make a splash in the postseason this year.
Indiana is quietly having a really good season so far, ranked third in the East after narrowly beating Boston recently.
Their 8-5 record obviously doesn’t tell the whole story. Indiana’s schedule hasn’t been particularly tough, with victories including beating Cleveland, New York, and Chicago. Their most notable victory is probably that one-point win against Boston. However, that doesn’t detract from the way they’ve been getting their wins. Victor Oladipo, never the most efficient shooter on the block, still has a .529 eFG% this season while taking nearly 20 shots a game, translating into a reliable 23.9 PPG for Indiana. His usage rate has stayed about the same, but his assist rate is up to 23.6% this year, a career high.
In general, Indiana struggles a bit with playmaking and (ironically) pace, with the second-lowest pace in the league and no one Pacer averaging more than 5 APG. They make up for that, however with the sixth-best defense in the league and solid contributions from the bench. Domantas Sabonis, who OKC traded alongside Oladipo to Indiana for Paul George, has had a great season as a sixth man, averaging 14.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, and a team-best 27.1 PER. He spends most of his time in the mid-post and has converted a ridiculous 67% of his shots so far. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, and his average three-point shooting makes him a poor fit next to Myles Turner, who’s really disappointed me this season, but Sabonis thrives off the bench.
Come playoff time, Indiana may not have the offensive chops to hang with the best teams in the league, but their defensive effort and grit will certainly challenge whoever their matchup may be.
The Celtics came into the season with a lot of premature hype, which I say lovingly.
Yes, they did push Cleveland to seven games in the ECF without Kyrie and Hayward, but it was never going to be simple addition with those two coming off major surgeries. Hayward, in particular, has been slow to regain his confidence driving to the basket and has been rather unimpressive with his shooting. However, his playmaking and defensive smarts are still there, and there’s no reason to think he can’t bounce back on the offensive end. Since getting a much-needed haircut, Irving has looked a lot like the Uncle Drew of old, but the rest of the team hasn’t really followed suit on offense.
The Celtics have taken a lot of unnecessary midrange shots early in the shot clock. The biggest culprits of this have been Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum, who are missing almost 2/3 of them. We knew Rozier’s shot selection could be questionable for some time now, which is what Kyrie’s return was supposed to mitigate, but Tatum’s over-reliance on isolation to pull-up jumpers has especially surprised fans of his incredibly efficient rookie season. I’m inclined to buy into the theory that working out with Kobe gave Tatum too much of the Mamba’s patented mentality, but Tatum’s skill and talent are too polished for him to continue playing this way.
COTY snub Brad Stevens needs to rein in his loose cannons and re-establish the offensive flow that elevated Boston and his players in the past.
The worst part of missing so many shots is that Boston’s best lineups don’t have the size to recover missed attempts.
They rank second-to-last in the league in the percentage of contested offensive rebounds they recover, meaning that other teams easily body them whenever they miss. There’s a lot of hustlers and active hands in the paint, as Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier are elite rebounders for their positions, and Kyrie Irving has been very active, snagging 5.0 RPG. However, Aron Baynes, Robert Williams, and Daniel Theis, three of Boston’s best rebounders, play an average of 9.7 MPG, leaving them rather thin on the boards.
Even with all the offensive inconsistency, Boston has fought to stay in games through defensive effort and mental grit. Boston’s defense, ranked second in the league, allowed them to come back from 22 down against the Suns and almost allowed them to come back against Utah last Friday without Kyrie Irving. At their worst, Boston is an elite defensive team with a streaky shooting game, which is still an excellent team. However, if the offensive chemistry improves even moderately, Boston is among the best in the league.
And finally, the 76ers.
I don’t want to say too much about the Sixers before seeing how Jimmy Butler plays with them. Even so, this is a really talented core. Joel Embiid may very well be the best center in the league, even if he’s prone to turnovers and ill-advised shots. Ben Simmons, not the best shooter in the world, is the reigning ROTY and is a great defender and playmaker. They lack shooting and depth, especially after trading away Robert Covington (.390 3P% this year) and Dario Saric (.351 3P% for his career), but it’s impossible to deny the defensive upside and star power on this team. Depending on how badly Jimmy Butler roasts Markelle Fultz and how the offensive gears fit, the Sixers could be a legitimate threat to go to the Finals, though I wouldn’t put a lot of money on it.
There you go, a free breakdown of the top-five teams in the East, each of which have very plausible scenarios in which they go to the Finals. (Though in Indiana’s case, those scenarios include the other teams being seriously injury-ridden and Myles Turner having a mid-season revival). This is the most competitive that the top of the East has been in years, and it’s an exciting time for anyone who’s a fan of those teams. But the question remains: does this mean that the East is good?
I would say yes.
Compared to the top of the West, which is basically just the Warriors with the Nuggets and Blazers throwing themselves in the conversation to start the season, the East is really exciting. I’d even go so far as to say the top-four teams in the East at the end of the season would beat #2-4 in the West in the playoffs.
I don’t really believe that Denver’s defense is sustainable, especially if Paul Millsap struggles with injuries like he has before. I also don’t think Damian Lillard can go deep in the playoffs next to CJ McCollum due to poor fit. Milwaukee’s win over Golden State proves that even the Warriors aren’t invulnerable. (There’s little doubt in my mind that they’ll end up winning it all, though). With the regression of the Rockets (bye, Melo!) and the Jazz and Pelicans looking a little shaky to start the season, it’s not a stretch to say that the top-four teams in the East are more likely to upset the Warriors than anyone in the West.
However, a conference isn’t strong just because of its best teams.
While .500 doesn’t even get a team into the playoffs in the West right now (but congrats on not having a losing record, Lakers fans), the Nets currently hold a playoff seed in the East with a 6-7 record. I like the Nets, but they’re not better than Utah, New Orleans, and, *sigh*, the Lakers. In fact, after the 76ers, no one else really matters in the playoff picture in the East right now. Detroit has looked good for flashes, but Drummond and Griffin aren’t really a threat to anyone at the top. Charlotte doesn’t have a top-10 player or point guard. (Are the Magic really the nine seed? Smh.) The bottom of the East is as bad as it’s ever been (and that especially means you, Washington and Cleveland).
Even so, things are looking up for some of these teams.
Wendell “longer than you expect” Carter looks like he’ll be very valuable for the Bulls moving forward, as they anticipate Markannen’s return and Lavine continues to roast defenses. The Nets have an unexpected young star and MIP candidate in Caris LeVert (who is seriously one of my most valuable fantasy players) next to Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen, constituting a solid trio to build around for the next few years. Trae Young and Kevin Huerter have looked really good for the Hawks, and they’ve got the Mavs first-rounder coming up.
For years, the East has been considered a sub-par conference, inspiring calls to overhaul the whole system in the NBA. However, for the first time in a while, the future looks bright for the East.
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