How The Rockets Can Win The Western Conference

With their additions of Chris Paul, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and P.J. Tucker, the Houston Rockets look like the candidate to usurp the Warriors in the Western Conference. They currently place above the Warriors in the early-season standings, and Chris Paul has just returned from injury. With an infusion of talent and a strong remaining core from last year, what does Houston have to do, and what breaks do they need, to make it out of the bloodbath that is the Western Conference? Here’s my breakdown of everything Houston needs to make it to the NBA Finals.

Finish With a Top Two Seed

If Houston is extremely lucky, the Warriors will slack off and give up the first seed in the West. If no core Warriors player is injured, the Rockets will likely have to settle for second. Going any lower is extremely dangerous. A three seed means only a single round of home-court advantage. This would put Houston at even more risk of losing before they even face Golden State. Anything below that is simply a failure. A fourth or fifth seed means Golden State in Round 1, but the Rockets won’t realistically fall below two or three without a major injury. If Houston does get a top-two seed though, they will have home-court advantage for both rounds before their toughest test begins. That is of utmost importance when their opponent is possibly the best team ever assembled.

Play a Relatively Easy First Round

If the season ended today, the Rockets would face the Jazz in Round 1. Knowing that the Thunder will eventually make the playoffs and the seeding will fluctuate, this isn’t realistic. The Rockets should hope to face the Trail Blazers in the first round. Portland simply doesn’t have the depth around Dame and CJ to beat Houston. Meanwhile, they can get revenge, and TPR will finally stop making Damian Lillard memes (possibly). Another potential first round match-up would be the “Baby” Lakers. Ball, Clarkson, Ingram, Nance, and Kuzma haven’t tasted the playoffs. Houston would make light work of them. Some teams Houston would hope to avoid include Denver, who would still lose to Houston due to its lack of defense but has the firepower to steal a few games, and Minnesota, who would likely do the same. Houston needs a quick sweep in Round 1, conserving their energy for what will be an undoubtedly tough Round 2.

Overpower San Antonio

Playing San Antonio is never easy for anyone. In this scenario, the Rockets want them in Round 2. If the Rockets get the Spurs in the Western Conference Semis, then the Warriors could be facing Oklahoma City. That would be a brutal series, and OKC stands to win a few games on the backs of their shot-making and defense. As Golden State has to rough it out with the Thunder, Houston will have to conquer the ghosts of playoffs past yet again in this match-up. Houston’s new lineup is favored here. D’Antoni can keep two of the trio of Chris Paul, James Harden, and Eric Gordon on the court at all times along with P.J. Tucker, Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, and Nene to switch out in the front-court. The Spurs defense is only so good, and they only have one Kawhi. LaMarcus Aldridge may pose a problem, but running him at PF against a small Rockets lineup would bleed points at an alarming rate. The Rockets should be able to handle Kawhi in this one, and they should hope for OKC-GSW to be long and brutal.

Keep Up Their Defensive Efforts

Houston’s defensive style of play relies heavily on switches, which can give opposing teams mismatches in the paint. They also rely on changing up their looks, not switching on some possessions. The Houston Chronicle reports that this scheme is meant to deny opponents good three-point looks. With Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, and Luc Mbah a Moute, three athletic forwards who can guard any position, they have versatile wings to pair with Capela. This year, even Ryan Anderson is picking it up on the defensive end. If Paul or Harden gets stuck on Kevin Durant, Houston is okay with giving up contested twos. Eric Gordon states, “We want all them to shoot all the tough 2s. It’s not going to even out when we’re making 3s.” Houston doesn’t need to shut down Golden State, they just need to force turnovers and limit three-point opportunities. If they do that, they only need to perform one more task to reach the finals.

Remain in an Offensive Rhythm

As mentioned earlier, two out of the trio of Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and James Harden will likely be on the floor at all times. With the plethora of wings and bigs Houston has, they should remain fresh through the playoffs if they keep series quick and clean. Throughout the playoffs, Houston needs to maintain an offensive rhythm. Teams that don’t have as deep of a back-court (cough, cough, Raymond Felton of OKC) experience bumps in their play when their point guard goes out. Houston has two All-NBA point guards and a secondary ball-handling sniper in Eric Gordon. They should not fall out of rhythm. And if designed plays fall apart like they so often do in the playoffs, they will always have a terrific shot creator on the floor. But Golden State will too, and Houston can’t have a hiccup in their offense, because that’s when the Warriors always pounce. Fortunately for them, their dominant back-court trio has the talent to make sure that this doesn’t happen.

For Houston to have the best chance of making it out the West, they need a Top-2 seed, a quick first round, San Antonio in the 2nd, and hopefully a GSW-OKC match-up on the other side of the bracket. If these things don’t happen, Houston still has a shot, but things get tougher. It’s imperative for Houston to play their brand of defense and remain consistent on offense. Can they do it? Yes. Will they? Possibly. And if they do all these things, Golden State could still show something extra with their backs against the wall.

Did I miss anything? Do you not agree? Are you sick of TPR’s Houston memes (I’m not!)? Feel free to DM me at @PerSourcesSam