The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are once again facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals; just a couple seasons removed from their Mickey Mouse Bubble Championship matchup. I’ve ranked the Miami Heat as the best team in the Eastern Conference this entire 2022 NBA season. While I still believe that the Miami Heat are an impressive basketball team, the Boston Celtics have continued to improve throughout the year.
We must also consider how teams matchup against each other when determining the outcome of the series.
In order to properly analyze the Heat v Celtics Eastern Conference Finals matchup, let’s examine the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.
First, the Miami Heat analysis.
The Miami Heat dominated the regular season with their team basketball and defensive presence. They finished the regular season ranking 5th in AST %, 4th in DEFRTG, and 12th in OFF RTG. Although the Miami Heat had their ups and downs, they continue to emphasizes team basketball & defense. This has lead them to a no.1 net rating in the playoffs.
Their roster is very different from Boston, but resembles it in many ways. They play through two stars in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. That roster is complemented by tough defenders and shooting. Perhaps the one area Miami really stands out is the scoring ability of their 6th man Tyler Herro. Tyler Herro torched the Boston Celtics the last time they met in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Similar to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Miami Heat are a phenomenal 3P shooting team. The Miami Heat’s game plan will rely heavily on drawing two defenders and kicking out to an open 3-P shooter. Considering the depth of the Miami Heat, very few rosters around the association have the capability of slowing them down.
The Heat are also probably the most fit team in the league. They want to run, which leads them to score many points off of turnovers.
Lastly, the Heat are coached by a top tier head coach in the NBA in Erik Spoelstra.
The Miami Heat’s weaknesses.
Although the Miami Heat have very few weaknesses, they do have some areas the Celtics can expose.
The Heat are a physical team. However, they often do struggle vs teams that are able to match their physicality. If teams move the basketball around and put the Heat in rotation, there are numerous defensive mismatches to exploit. The Heat have also dealt with injury issues in the past. As good as Bam Adebayo is, he becomes less reliable the later the Heat head into the post season. There is also the inconsistency in some of their players to consider. Is Strus ready to torch the Celtics the way Duncan Robinson has proven capable to be?
Now, let’s analyze the Boston Celtics.
Ironically, much of what I admired about the Miami Heat is exactly what the Boston Celtics have become. Despite facing tougher competition, the Boston Celtics are ranked 2nd, just behind the Heat, in net rating. The Celtics have also become an elite passing team, ranked 2nd just behind the Golden State Warriors.
The Celtics’ roster has depth very similar to the Miami Heat. With both of these teams, you never know which role player is going to give you 20 points.
Jayson Tatum has the ability to be the best player this series.
The Boston Celtics’ weaknesses.
The Boston Celtics are a team that has continued to improve all year, and improves as series move alone. However, they also have the bad habit of reverting back to the old Boston Celtics when things get tough in the fourth quarter. This could lead to the Miami Heat blowing them out in the fourth quarter suddenly.
The Celtics are also lead by a first year head coach in Ime Udoka, who has been impressive all season.
I’m also worried about Al Horford this series, who was very helpful during the Bucks series. If the Heat go small ball, which I suspect they often will, Horford may struggle tremendously.
The Heat flourish when they can convert points off of turnovers, which is an area Boston ranked 7th in points off of turnovers allowed by their opponents. The Celtics were not particular impressive defending against the 3 either, ranking 9th in 3PM allowed by opponents.
Analyzing the Heat vs Celtics Eastern Conference Finals matchup.
Both of these teams are dealing with health issues which will make it difficult to accurately determine the victor. The Boston Celtics lose their verticality options if Rob Williams III isn’t there, which gives Bam Adebayo the ability to help much more often. Kyle Lowry and Marcus Smart continue to battle injuries and may miss game 1.
The Boston Celtics must be the Ime Udoka Celtics through four quarters to stand a chance. They cannot revert to their old ball hogging ways when things get tight. Their guys must play Jimmy Butler very tough. Should Jimmy Butler be allowed to comfortably make plays for his teammates, the Heat will go on runs that the Celtics cannot contain.
The Miami Heat X-Factor is Duncan Robinson. Robinson hasn’t had much of a role with the Heat this season. Don’t be surprised if this is the series where he becomes very involved. His shooting ability and height can torch the Celtics. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo will also give the Celtics’ bench trouble.
The Boston Celtics X-Factor is Derrick White. His defense and basketball IQ have been a much welcomed addition to the Celtics. However, P.J Tucker and company will attempt to make it very hard for Tatum and Smart to be efficient play makers this series. The Celtics are going to need White to assist with this, and potentially even win them one game.
Lastly, the Celtics cannot afford to experience the Miami Heat night life. There’s a reason why teams struggle in Miami. It ain’t Jimmy Butler’s hairdo.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics prediction.
This series is truly a toss up. The Boston Celtics at their best, look like a much better team than the Miami Heat in many ways. The Miami Heat on the other hand, are consistently elite at doing what they do best. Both teams have the roster capable of making adjustments. This series may come down to who steals a clutch win on the road, and who can remain healthy.
Although my heart is with my Boston Celtics, my head believes the Miami Heat will defeat the Boston Celtics in 7 games and represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
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p.s: The Boston Celtics still struggle vs the 2-3 zone, which is how Miami whooped them a couple years ago.