I’ll admit, I’m a very casual NCAA fan of any sport. I know who’s good and who isn’t, but that’s about it. Despite this, every year I fill out a March Madness bracket. My entries are pretty average but surpass the expectations for an extremely uninvolved fan. I can attribute my mediocrity to a handful of rules.
Ride the #1 Seeds…
Don’t fall for the UMBC trap. The University of Maryland-Baltimore County’s romp of Virginia last year was a stunner. No one expected a #16 Seed to overcome arguably the best team in the country. But, it happened. The Retrievers quickly became America’s sweetheart and gave hope to future #16s. This hope, however, is misplaced. Historically, #1’s reach the second round 99.3% of the time. As a matter of fact, #1’s reaches at least the Elite Eight over HALF the time. There’s no reason to eliminate them any earlier than the Sweet Sixteen. You’d be smart to write a #1 in as your champ too. Nine of the past 12 winners have been the top seed.
…But Only for So Long
With that said, don’t chalk each pick. Only once in NCAA history has there been an all-#1 Seed Final Four. On average, only one #1 Seed makes it that deep. Pick two, maybe three, to make it to the Final Four but no more.
Pick AT LEAST One #12 To Upset
#12 Seeds are the lowest seed that wins at least once per season. They make the Round of 32 34% of the time, compared to #13s who make it only 20% of the time. Don’t take this team too far, though. Only once (1/136) has a #12 ever made it to the Elite Eight… that’s the same odds of a #1-16 upset.
Dartboard Your Cinderella
Every year, at least one team that isn’t a #1-4 Seed makes a deep run into the tourney. Last year, we fell in love with Final Four-bound #11 Seed Loyola Chicago and their chaplain Sister Jean. The year prior, #11 Xavier made the Elite Eight, and #7 South Carolina went even further, making the Final Four. These teams seem almost random… and to some extent they are.
Don’t look too deep into finding analytics to discover the next surprise team, however. These appear almost at random. Seeds #5-16 have almost equal odds of progressing once they get to the Sweet Sixteen. I recommend quite literally throwing a dart to pick a non-top seed team to make it far. I’ve saved you the trouble by including a dart board. Feel free to use it to pick your next Cinderella.
Don’t Take a #9 Past The Second Round
One of the hardest decisions in all brackets is the #8vs9 Round of 64 games. Historically, both the #8 Seed and #9 Seed have a 50% chance of exiting the first round. Despite this, once they get to the Round of 32, the #9 Seed has only a 10% chance of progressing. That gives #9 Seeds roughly a 5% chance of making it to the Sweet Sixteen, the fourth lowest odds of any seed in the entire bracket.
Color Wheel Tie-Breaker
When it comes down to a tough match-up – #8v9 in the Round of 64, #1v2 in the Final Four, etc. – use color to choose a winner. 65% of NCAA champs have donned blue as their primary color, but they win only 44% of their games against orange teams. This year, there’s just one first-round game between blue and orange: #7 Nevada v #10 Florida.
How do you fill out your brackets? What upsets and Cinderellas do you predict? Let me know, either on Twitter (@zekepersources) or Instagram (@zekepersources)