With just over a month left in the NBA regular season, the battle for the East is shaping up to be an entertaining one. The top-five seeds all have legitimate shots at making the NBA Finals, and for the first time in eight years, the Conference Champions won’t be from Cleveland or Miami. But before the fight for East supremacy begins, there’s one more title that needs to be claimed: the first seed.
The race for the first seed in the East really only consists of two teams: the best-in-the-league Milwaukee Bucks and the second place Toronto Raptors. Let’s break down their seasons so far, and what they have to face looking ahead.
Milwaukee Bucks
Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have been having an incredible year. They’ve now won seven games in a row, and have a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Raptors. They’re statistically the best defense in the league, with a league-best 104.2 defensive rating, the second-most BPG at 6.1, as well as the most RPG with 49.
Offensively, the Bucks are the second-most efficient team in the NBA with a 58.5% true shooting percentage. Needless to say, the Bucks have been playing the best basketball in the association. But, with 20 games left on their schedule, will they be able to hold onto their lead?
Milwaukee has the sixth-easiest schedule from this point on, based on average opponents win percentage (.472). Of their final 20 opponents, 10 of them are currently under .500, while 10 are either at or above .500. So far this season, Milwaukee has won 73.1% off their games against teams at or over .500, while winning 80% of their games against sub-.500 teams. If this trend continues, the Bucks will win 15 games to finish off the season at 63-19.
The talent on this Buck’s squad is hard to deny, and it’s no doubt the reason for their success. “The Greek Freak” is having an MVP year, while forward Khris Middleton made his first All-Star appearance. Milwaukee acquired sharpshooter Nikola Mirotic via trade in February, and his play-style fits perfectly into the Bucks’ system. Now, Milwaukee is reportedly signing veteran Pau Gasol. Gasol’s championship experience will prove extremely beneficial with the team looking to make a deep playoff run.
Toronto Raptors
Although looking considerably different than last season, this Raptors squad have proven themselves again as a top team in the NBA. Piloted by Kawhi Leonard, they’ve struggled with injuries this year but have still managed to hold on to the second spot in the East. Toronto’s impressive record stems from lock-down defense, as well as their offensive fundamentals. The Raptors hold fifth-best Net Rating in the league at 5.1, and their consistency on both ends of the floor has won them the second-most games in the league.
Looking forward, the Toronto Raptors have 19 games before the end of the regular season and boast the second-easiest schedule remaining. Of those games, only four of them are against teams at or above .500. Toronto has won 60% of their games against such teams while winning 86.7% against sub-.500 teams. By this logic, they “should” end up winning 15 of their last 19 games.
The Raptors have been able to build a relatively new team around recently acquired superstar Kawhi Leonard while remaining championship contenders. New faces like Marc Gasol and Jeremy Lin have fit in seamlessly with the Raptors organization, and new HC Nick Nurse has managed the numerous injuries to the squad this season extremely well.
Rumors have recently surfaced about mutual interest between Toronto and big-man Marcin Gortat. Gortat would add needed depth at the center position, as well as solid rebounding off the bench, something the team lacks when Gasol starts.
Prediction
1st: Milwaukee Bucks (63-19) 2nd: Toronto Raptors (59-23)
Both Toronto and Milwaukee have had stellar seasons so far, and they’re both deserving of the top spot. The two squads have made transactions over the past few months that’ll prove extremely beneficial as the playoffs draw closer.
As long as both teams stay healthy, the race should end up very close. However, the Milwaukee Bucks have the slight edge here. They’ll ride their current hot streak over the tougher opponents on their schedule, and the lead they have over Toronto shouldn’t diminish over the next month. The Bucks will end up with the first seed come April.
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