MVP – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Whether he wins it this year or not, Giannis is a near lock for MVP next year.
Antetkounmpo finished the season with the seventh most points, sixth most rebounds, and 12th most blocks. His efficiency tops the league, as he finished the season with the highest field goal percentage among forwards. These stats are numbers you’d expect from someone like Bradley Beal or James Harden, the leaders in minutes played this year. But Giannis is not among those two. Nor is he in the top ten – or even top thirty. In fact, Giannis played the 47th most minutes this season.
This free agency, the Bucks are at risk of losing four double-digit scorers: Khris Middleton (18.3 PPG, Player Option), Malcolm Brogdon (15.6 PPG, Restricted FA), Brook Lopez (12.5 PPG, Non-Bird UFA), and Nikola Mirotic (11.6 PPG, Bird UFA). While it’s unknown which, if any, of these players will walk come July, it’s incredibly feasible that at least two – likely Middleton and Mirotic – won’t be wearing the Bucks “Good Land Green” next season. That alone is roughly 25% of Milwaukee’s offense. Coach Mike Budenholzer will certainly be looking for Giannis to pick up the slack; a task which would propel his already stellar performance to an even more celestial plane.
DPOY – Paul George
I’d argue this is the hardest award to predict due to the many forms that defense comes in. While offense is much more than PPG, you can usually get a good snapshot of what a player brings to the offense by looking at a box score. Defense, however, is often disrespectfully diminished to steals and blocks. This doesn’t account for the IQ a player has to identify when to switch or double a player, nor does it account for what I call the “cornerback factor.” Just as the most elite cornerbacks rarely lead the league in interceptions because quarterbacks avoid throwing towards them, some elite defenders rarely lead the league in steals or blocks. Arguably, the leading determinant for these stats is a players wingspan opposed to their defensive capabilities.
With that said, I need to predict who the best defensive player in 2020 will be. First thought jumps to perennial contenders Andre Drummond, Kawhi Leonard, and Draymond Green. However, the name that sticks in my mind is Paul George. While I could argue until the end of time that he deserves to be the first two-time MIP winner, it’s undeniable George will be deserving of a DPOY next year.
At the mid-season mark, he led the league in defensive win shares but fell to fifth, as the Thunder struggled after the All-Star Break. As I mentioned, steals and blocks are far from everything, but George led the league in total swipes by a considerable margin and has recorded more blocks than both LeBron James and former DPOY Tyson Chandler. His defensive rebound percentage is the best among all SFs.
George will be 29 next season, which very well could be his best year. He’s been an under-the-radar defender his entire career and next year may be the time he gets the recognition he deserves.
ROTY – Zion Williamson
I’m sorry. I wanted to get cute and threw around the idea of someone else winning ROTY. It just isn’t happening. Barring an injury, I see it as unavoidable that Zion blows his fellow rookies out of the water.
He has the strength of Boban Marjanovic, the rebounding prowess of Andre Drummond, yet stands at the height of LeBron James. His game is a tad rough around the edges, especially offensively, as you take the Duke Forward out of the post, but we’ve seen a similar athletic freak (2020 MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo) do just fine without an elite jumper.
As much as Ja Morant would bring to Phoenix if he were drafted there, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton would prevent him from getting the numbers needed to get recognition.
6MOTY – Lou Williams
Like Zion, I just can’t foresee anyone winning this award other than Williams. He’s proven to be more than content providing 18+ PPG off the bench as opposed to scoring potentially 22+ if he were to start. No player of his caliber happily comes off the bench.
This would, however, require someone other than Williams to win 6MOTY this year. Only twice has a player repeated as the best bench player (Kevin McHale and Detlef Schrempf), and the feat hasn’t been recreated since 1992. No need to start now.
MIP – Khris Middleton
I belive wholeheartedly Khris Middleton will leave Milwaukee if they don’t offer him every penny they have. He is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players in the league, and it makes sense why. He plays alongside MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, so it’s pretty easy to get lost in the shadow of the seven-foot Greek.
If he finds his own team such as Orlando or Cleveland, Middleton (who averaged 18.3 PPG, 4.3 AST, and 6.0 TRB on under 25% usage) is ready to bloom into the player he’s shown in flashes that he’s capable of becoming.
Exec OTY – Travis Schlenk
Hawks GM Travis Schlenk may have pulled off the greatest NBA robbery since Danny Ainge swindled Billy King out of Jaylen Brown, Markelle Fultz, and Collin Sexton.
During the 2018 draft, Schlenk traded the draft rights to Luka Doncic for the rights to Trae Young. Young had a rookie year just a shade worse than Doncic’s and maybe even surpassed him post-All-Star break.
If those had been the only pieces to the trade, you could call the exchange a wash. However, Dallas also sent Atlanta their top-five protected 2019 first rounder, which will likely either be the ninth or tenth highest pick in the draft. There’s only a 26% chance the Mavericks retain the pick… roughly the same odds of the Hawks jumping to the first or second selection in the lottery.
The Hawks’ own pick is likely to be at the fifth spot, making the most likely scenario that the Hawks pick both fifth and ninth. From here they have two options: either fill their weakest positions with players like Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, or Jaxon Hayes, or they could build a package to send both picks plus some futures as well as a handful of players to get (2020 ROTY) Zion Williamson with the first pick.
If Young plays even close to as well as he did this season and the two Hawks picks can come in and can provide as few as 12 PPG, Schlenk would’ve rebuilt his team in just two years.
You could easily advocate for the Hawks GM to win the award this year, but I’d argue that’s premature. We’re unsure if the pick Atlanta gained in this trade will be of any value. If the selection turns into Kwame Brown, the Hawks would’ve lost out on Luka Doncic. Trae Young, as I said earlier, is nobody to scoff at, but Doncic is, and will be, better. But if the Mavericks’ pick turns into as little as a serviceable starter, we’ll look back at the Doncic-Young trade as one of the most lopsided in history.
COTY – Brett Brown
Coach of the Year is perhaps the most boring award given out. It’s usually given to the best regular season team’s coach, not the coach who led his team to a playoff berth with a below-average team, or the coach who came into a tanking franchise and turned them into a competitive roster. It goes to the best team’s coach. Yawn.
That said, there are exceptions. I’m excluding this year’s COTY favorite as no one has ever won the award in consecutive years. I’m also going to eliminate any previous winners who are still with the team they won COTY with because only Gene Shue, Gregg Popovich, and Don Nelson have won it with the same team more than once. That eliminates Mike Budenholzer, Popovich, Steve Kerr, Mike D’Antoni, and Scott Brooks.
So, who’s going to be the best team next season whose coach isn’t a previous winner? It has to be Philly, coached by Brett Brown. Ben Simmons will be one year better (maybe he’ll shoot a three). Joel Embiid may be good enough to be the best center in the league, if he isn’t already.
GM Elton Brand will have to make some tough budget decisions this offseason, but it could honestly only elevate them even more. Both Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are impending FAs. Butler has a player option, and Harris is a Bird-eligible UFA. If Butler picks up his option, Brand is going to need to negotiate a team-friendly deal with Harris because Ben Simmons is going to ask for a big deal in the summer of 2020.
If Butler wants to stay and Harris walks, the 76ers could theoretically improve. They had a higher winning percentage before trading for the latter than they did before. If Butler leaves and Harris stays, you get even more out of Harris. He was averaging more points in LA, so with Butler gone, he’s able to play closer to his potential.
Either way, the 76ers are getting better next year. Their 51-31 record led to the third best record in the East – honestly a massive under-performance for the roster they have. But, looking forward, no one on the roster will get worse. We aren’t sure if Kawhi Leonard is staying in Toronto, and with Middleton likely leaving Milwaukee, they could be worse even if Giannis takes giant leaps forward. Boston has proven they’ll make a playoff run each year but from the three or four seed. The East is still easy, and Philly will be a strong force moving forward.
Enjoy what I had to say? Who do you think is going to take home some hardware next year? Let me know, either on Twitter (@zekepersources) or Instagram (@zekepersources)