It’s that time of the year where millions of fans, starving for a taste of football after nearly six months without it, head over to watch preseason games, just to end up complaining by the end of the first quarter of the first game that it’s boring. Starters typically only play a few series before being replaced by a bunch of sixth-round draft picks, veteran journeymen, the occasional rugby player, and some guy named Laurent Duvernay-Tardif who wants to put MD on his jersey because he’s a doctor now. (What?)
If you’re not a die-hard fan of your team or of football, in general, you probably don’t know most of the players who come in after starters exit, and for fans, preseason becomes dull pretty fast. If you’re one of those people, I don’t blame you. I could probably only make it through an entire preseason game if my team, the Broncos, were playing, and sometimes I don’t if Paxton Lynch and his 2.9 yards per attempt make me physically violent.
NFL experts, however, will try to overhype the preseason and pull out some ridiculous stat that winning the third week of preseason increases the teams of making the playoffs by [insert irrational percent] and is as close to a real game as preseason gets. In fact on the eve of the annual “third week of preseason is so important” hype train, I’m here to say that it’s just dead wrong.
Last year’s 12 playoffs teams were 5-7 in Week 3 of the preseason last year. While that could be an outlier to a statistic of a larger sample size, that indicates the problem. There’s no blanket statement for preseason importance, a certain week’s importance, or just when the starters are in importance. Preseason results are arbitrary. The valuable parts of preseason are depth chart battles, and ultimately guys fighting to make the 53-man roster. Those things matter because they reflect how an individual player performs in a specific role against NFL competition.
Unfortunately, we still have to read articles that are published on legitimate news sites that say that having three(+) preseason wins gives a team a 35% chance of making the playoffs while winning only two preseason games gives a 40% chance, yet simultaneously argue that preseason is more important than we think. (So winning two games is better than three?) It’s information like that, that blurs the value of preseason. Looking at last years preseason standings, I can’t even make up a bogus statistic like that. Going 2-2 you could end up like the Super Bowl Champion Eagles or the last place Giants. Going 3-1 could put you a couple plays away from the AFC Championship like Pittsburgh, or back to the drawing board in Indianapolis. None of it matters!
Ultimately, does preseason matter in the grand scheme of things? Yes, but not when it comes to winning. Preseason football is a showcase. It’s a chance for guys to show what they have and allows front offices to make sure they have the best 53 men for when winning actually matters.
Until Week 1 starts, though, here’s the way to watch football. Boo freak injuries, get mad when that rugby player that you love (and is most certainly the next great story) doesn’t get enough snaps, yell at your neighbor Steve who insists that his team going 4-0 this summer means they’re primed for regular season success (unless he’s a Browns fan, then let him celebrate), but most importantly ignore any statistic that tries to make you think that the preseason is any more important beyond the evaluation of individual players. It may coincidentally make some sense over time, on a year-to-year basis it can be irrelevant and neglect the millions of other factors that shape an NFL season.
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