I know the Los Angeles Chargers barely beat the Cincinnati Bengals and their horrible defense, but hear me out. Before the regular season began, like many others, I predicted that the Chargers would win the AFC Championship. However, when the season actually began, the Chargers started to lose games (1-2 record through their first three). Also, with the very fast rise of the Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (and the lack of people who actually watch the Chargers play) people started to leave the Chargers’ train. Even though the Chargers have only lost one game since starting 1-2 (including a six-game winning streak), only a few people hopped back on the Chargers’ bandwagon — many doubt that the Chargers can win the AFC. Luckily for Chargers fans, I’m here to make a case for them to be the winners of their conference.
Offense
This season the NFL has been dominated by high-powered offenses. You’ve probably heard of the wild offense in Kansas City, the high-scoring offense in New Orleans, or the star-powered offense in Los Angeles. But, let’s not forget that there’s another stacked offense in Los Angeles. The Chargers have a top-five offense in the league. They can pass and run the ball exceptionally well on teams.
The passing attack for the Chargers is at least top-10 in many categories including being second in yards per pass attempt (8.8 yards) and ninth in net passing yards per game (269 yards). The iron man, Philip Rivers, leads the deadly passing attack for the Chargers.
For the love of God can someone please give Philip Rivers more attention than he’s currently receiving. What I mean is the media should talk about him more and praise him like the elite quarterback he is instead of glossing over him to continue to ride Patrick Mahomes and Drew Bress. My man Philip is criminally underrated. Since becoming the full-time starter for the then San Diego Chargers in 2006, Rivers has been racking up around 4,100 yards and 28 touchdowns a season.
This season, his stats are on pace to be even better. Through 12 games, Rivers has thrown for 3,638 yards and 29 touchdowns. In 10 of the 13 games, he’s had a passer rating of 100 or more (a career-high 114.5 passer rating on the season). He’s dangerously accurate, completing 284 of his 409 pass attempts – tied for the fifth-highest completion percentage in the league (69%).
For example, during their week 12 blowout win against the Arizona Cardinals, Rivers had an all-time great performance. He set the NFL record with 25-straight completions to start a game, finishing the game with only one incompletion. He completed 96.55% off his passes (28 out of 29). Connecting on almost 97% of your passes with a minimum of 25 throws is really hard. That shows a lot about how good Rivers is at throwing the football.
Also, his turnover numbers are down this year. Now, I know that they’ve only played 13 games and his turnover numbers could spike, but still, throwing six interceptions and fumbling the ball twice for a player who’s been a little turnover-happy every year is a good sign going into the postseason. His stats are a significant contribution to his team’s mostly dominant performance. His great play on the field has him as a top-four MVP candidate to many.
Having an experienced QB who’s also having an MVP type year is a big-time advantage in the postseason. Just ask the New England Patriots, and they’ll tell you all about that. Just to add in, Rivers is a very competitive person. Have you ever seen him on the sideline? The guy gets fired up. Add up a competitive spirit, a person who’s backpacked a team that’s let him down every year causing him not to have a ring, and finally giving him another shot at a Superbowl run leaves no doubt in my mind that he won’t go down without a fight in the postseason.
Rivers is putting up great numbers with help from his loaded, wide receiving core. The WRs for the Chargers are quietly the best group in the league. These wideouts are a bunch of playmakers. With the help of Rivers’ beautifully thrown balls, these wideouts can get down the field and create big plays for this offense. They average 12.8 yards per reception.
Their number one option is a top-five wideout in the league in Keenan Allen. Allen is, in my opinion, underappreciated. After an ACL injury that kept him off the field in 2016 for all but one game of that season, Allen bounced back last season by catching 102 of Rivers’ passes for 1,393 yards and six TDs. The performance was great enough to receive his first Pro-Bowl nod and the 2017 AP Comeback Player of the year award. This season, Allen has picked up where he left off. He’s caught 88 passes for 1,074 yards and six TDs.
Lining up next to Allen are three solid wideouts. A 6’4″ deep threat in Tyrell Williams has gained 17.1 yards per catch (seventh best in the league). Mike Williams, a former first-round pick and another deep threat, averages 17.2 yards per reception (sixth best in the league). Travis Benjamin rounds out the group, giving Rivers many good options to throw to. These receivers have great size and speed to torch some of the league’s best defenses. The trio has recorded a solid 1,181 receiving yards and 13 TDs.
This receiving bunch has so much depth that it’s scary for opponents. It’s hard to take away Keenan Allen, but let’s say an opponent does so. That would barely phase the Chargers because they have 8,000,000 other above-average wide receivers to throw to. This group is so deep that them losing a rising star tight end in Hunter Henry in May hasn’t stopped the team from being one of the league’s best offenses.
The Chargers passing abilities can overshadow the running game for the Chargers. However, it’s still good. They have the 12th best rushing attack in the league (122.1 rushing yards per game). These backs can get nice chunk yards and move the chains with the fifth-highest yards per carry average in the league (4.8 yards). They also don’t turn the ball over. This unit has only fumbled the ball twice, and both times the balls were recovered by the offense.
Their running back core has a lot of potential to be deep. Their starting RB, Melvin Gordon, is a Pro-Bowl caliber back. Gordon has carried the ball 153 times for 802 yards and nine TDs. He’s a versatile back, catching 44 passes for 453 yards and four TDs. The only reason why the Chargers rushing attack ranking has fallen to 12th is due to the injury of Melvin Gordon.
Gordon’s missed the last three games with a Grade-2 MCL sprain in his right knee. I expect him to be back by the playoffs, and I hope the Chargers don’t rush him back because they need him to be healthy for the postseason. Now, there’s promising depth behind Gordon on the roster to help clinch a spot in the playoffs.
Backup running back Austin Ekeler is looking like he’ll have a nice football career as a balanced RB. Now starting for the Chargers over injured Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has produced 900 total yards and five total touchdowns.
Backing up Ekeler is a rookie out of Northwestern named Justin Jackson. After being drafted by the team, Jackson was cut only for him to later come back to be on the practice squad then finally in the main lineup. I love that never-give-up spirit. That philosophy is good to have around players or just out on the field.
Jackson hasn’t done anything that special this season, however, he had 82 total yards of offense and a rushing touchdown against the Steelers. That performance by Jackson showed to me that this group has the potential to be deep. If the backup backs can play like they’ve been playing recently heading into the postseason, that’s another advantage for the Chargers. It’s an advantage because if one RB gets fatigued, the Chargers can rotate in a fresh back who can do a good enough job to fill the void.
Having a balanced offense gives unfair leverage to the Chargers because they have two gears on offense. They pass and run the ball so well they can keep defenses on their heels trying to guess what type of play they’re going to run instead of allowing teams to just come out in pass defense 24/7. It also takes some pressure away from Rivers, so he doesn’t have to carry the load on offense through the air.
One of the NFL’s best offenses can only happen when it gets nice blocking and protection from its offensive line. Now, the OL is definitely the weakest link on offense. According to Pro Football Focus, after week 12, the Chargers have the fifth-worst O-Line in football. I don’t think they deserve that ranking. They’ve proved that they can be elite with moments like a dominant blocking performance in week six against the Browns. Former Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey leads the big boys up front. For such a low ranking, this OL has only allowed 24 sacks (sixth-best in the league). This unit isn’t a great one, but they’re still capable of getting the job done.
Defense
You’d think that this team is just stacked offensively, but this team is stacked defensively as well. The Chargers have the eighth best defense in the league. This team is hard to score on (sixth-fewest points allowed with 20.8), and since Week 5, they’ve allowed the fewest points in the league (16 points). Here’s why.
Even though the defense has been average when it comes to bringing down the QB, the Chargers finally had one of the best defensive linemen in football in Joey Bosa back and ready to suit up just a few weeks ago. Bosa obviously isn’t 100% healthy right now since he’s coming off a foot injury. However, he’s looking better and better as the season progresses. I expect him to look like the terrifying Joey Bosa we all know come playoff time.
Lined up on the opposite side of the defensive line is Bosa’s partner in crime, Melvin Ingram. This dude is underrated. Like Bosa, Ingram received his first trip to the Pro-Bowl last season. This year, Ingram hasn’t let his foot off the gas. He’s recorded 5.5 sacks, 36 combined tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble.
What teams will struggle with now with the return of Bosa is blocking. If Ingram is getting to the QB with ease, teams will have to start to double him. That gives Bosa less attention from the opponents, making it easy for him to get the QB.
The Chargers have one of the best secondaries, in my opinion. They’re top-10 in passing yards allowed per game (230.9 yards). QBs are more frustrated when playing this swarming secondary compared to playing other opponents. This secondary defends the pass really well. They’re tied with the seventh-highest number of passes deflected (61) and tied for the 11th-highest number of interceptions (12).
.@DerwinJames looking too strong 😳💪 pic.twitter.com/PnukEZKTAr
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) December 3, 2018
The secondary is led by the potential Defensive Rookie of the Year in safety Derwin James. If you couldn’t tell by the twitter video above, James is a monster. He’s everywhere on the field. Not only has he played at safety, but he’s also played at cornerback and even on the defensive line. He can rush the passer well for his position (3.5 sacks and six QB hits) and tackle your best offensive players (88 combined tackles). James can also defend the pass (three INTs and tied for sixth in the league with 12 passes defensed).
At the cornerback position is one of the most if not the most talented cornerback units in the league. The top CB for the Chargers is definitely a top-three corner in the league in Casey Hayward. He’s doing a good job locking down the right side of the field despite being targeted less this season than years prior. That’s why his number of interceptions and passes defensed are down with only six PDs and no INTs. I guess that happens when you’re one of the best at your position.
This unit has a lot of above average guys on it. Even though the cornerback part of the group is a bit banged up right now, they should still be fine due to their depth. These injuries are also not considered season-ending other than the injury to Jason Verrett earlier in the season.
Special Teams
Nothing is exciting on the Chargers special teams unit because it’s the Chargers, am I right? Year after year it seems like this unit lets down this team. However, the Chargers do have a top punt return man in Desmond King. He’s fourth in the league in yards per punt return (14.2). Also, he and four other players are the only players in the league who’ve taken a punt to the crib.
Coaching
Head coach Anthony Lynn isn’t that well known to the average football fan. However, coach Lynn has brought back a winning culture to the Chargers organization since he took the position last season. He took a team that went 5-11 the year before he arrived to 9-7 and now 10-3 this season. He’s a huge part of the team’s dominance this season. Lynn is a good leader, and he inspires his team in the locker room.
He calls the right plays on offense. An interesting stat is that the Chargers are the third-best team on fourth-down. They’ve converted six of their seven fourth-down conversion attempts (85.5%).
Lynn also knows how to keep his offense on the field. The Chargers have the eighth-highest time of possession average per game in the league. At home, the Chargers keep the ball even longer (highest time of possession in the league at home).
His defense is buttoned up. They’re the ninth-least penalized unit in the league. His team doesn’t get rattled easily. A few weeks ago in Pittsburgh, Lynn’s team was down by 16 in an extreme environment at Heinz Field. Lynn was not shaken by the circumstances that faced his team and coached his team to a comeback victory which included scoring 23 unanswered points and controlling the final minute of the game which led to a game-winning field goal. A coach who’s not rattled in a playoff environment is key to win road games in the postseason which the Chargers will most likely have to do.
A signature win versus the Steelers
Beating the Steelers, to me, was a signature win for the Chargers. You can say all you want about the refs missing calls in favor of the Chargers, but still, the Steelers had a two-possession lead and the crowd in their support after the horrible missed call which led to a Chargers score. Not only did the Chargers show that they can beat the Steelers, but the way that they did it was very impressive.
Did you know that the Steelers were 220-0-2 at home when leading by 14 points or more? Yeah, the Steelers are really good at home. For a team from sunny California to come into a cold playoff-like atmosphere like Heinz Field and score 23 unanswered points while being down by 16 shows me a lot about the Chargers’ playoff chances especially on the road. The Chargers also had more yards, fewer turnovers, a longer time of possession, and roughly the same number of first downs as the Steelers.
Another big takeaway from that game is an ankle injury to the surprising beast, RB James Conner. We currently don’t know the severity of the injury. Conner will most likely return at the end of the regular season or the start of the postseason. If Conner somehow doesn’t play for the rest of the season including the postseason, the running game for the Steelers would be more nonexistent than unicorns. This would cause the Steelers to lose a few games at the end of the regular season and would heavily decrease their chances of going to the Super Bowl.
If Conner is healthy enough to return, he most likely wouldn’t be 100%, so the impact of Conner wouldn’t be as big. This will also cause the Steelers to lose a few games at the end of the regular season and decrease their chances to win the AFC.
Other possible postseason competition
Let’s take a look at the Chargers chances to beat the other teams that most likely will be in the AFC playoffs.
The Baltimore Ravens or the Houston Texans are the teams that’ll most likely play the Chargers in the first round. But, to me, these are the two teams to lose in the first round in the AFC. I really don’t see them having a good chance at beating the Chargers if everyone stays healthy from here on out.
I know the Ravens and Texans both have some of the NFL’s best defenses. However, the Chargers are just too much on both sides of the ball. Also, do we really trust a rookie QB in Lamar Jackson who doesn’t throw more than 25 passes and 200 passing yards a game to win a playoff game especially now with a banged up ankle?
For the Texans, do we trust QB Deshaun Waston to win a road playoff game yet? I mean the guy is playing out of his mind since starting 0-3, but I don’t think that he’ll play as well during the postseason. I don’t trust either QB that much right now, especially Jackson.
A majority of football fans would say that the Kansas City Chiefs have the best chance to represent to AFC in the Super Bowl. However, I don’t think that’s the case. Their QB, Pat Mahomes, if he continues to play like he is, will most likely win the regular season MVP. However, just because he’s playing at an all-time level doesn’t make me trust him in big games. I don’t believe in him not only based off of this season being his first year as a starter but also because he turns the ball over a lot in big games.
In the two biggest games for the Chiefs so far, on the road against the Rams and the Patriots, Mahomes showed why he’s like Brett Favre. Mahomes can throw some beautiful touchdowns, but he can also throw some impressive passes to the other team. In the game against the Patriots, he threw two interceptions. In one of the all-time greatest football games against the Rams, he had five turnovers (three interceptions and two fumbles).
Despite the turnovers from Mahomes, the Chiefs lost both games by three points. That’s with their star RB Kareem Hunt. Unfortunately for the Chiefs and fortunately for the Chargers, Kareem Hunt may have ended his career with a damaging video of him being released by who else but TMZ of Hunt assaulting a woman in February which he ended up lying about to the Chiefs organization.
Hunt was suspended immediately after the release of the video, and shortly after, the Chiefs giving what Hunt deserved, a release. Now, there’s a hole to fill in the running back department. Spencer Ware is a solid back, but he’s no Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs have a lot to make up after losing last season’s leading rusher.
KC also has the third-worst defense in the league. They rank dead last in passing yards allowed with 282 passing yards allowed a game, so there’s no way this defense is stopping Rivers. On top of that, the Chiefs have the seventh-worst run-stopping defense (127.8 rushing yards allowed a game). They also allow the fifth-most points in the league (27 points allowed per game). A very talented offense like the Chargers will have a field day with this defense.
The loss of Hunt and their lousy defense adds more pressure to Mahomes to play even better and deliver in his first postseason start. He does have some experience in the postseason. He was, of course, the backup for Alex Smith in last year’s playoff matchup against the Tennesse Titans, but we all know what happened in that game. Smith’s definitely not the guy to take notes from in the postseason.
Let’s not forget that Chiefs HC Andy Reid has a history of postseason disappointments. Maybe things will be different now that the Chiefs have fresh blood at QB, but we’ll just have to wait and see due to the lack of experience of Mahomes. Yes, the Chiefs have had Rivers’ and the Chargers’ number in recent years, beating the Chargers already this season. However, I don’t see a repeat of Week 1 the next time these two teams meet.
The Patriots, in my opinion, are the Chargers hardest competition they might play in the postseason. Like the rest of the teams that will make the postseason, they have their flaws. The Patriots’ defense is nothing special. Just like the Chiefs defense, the Pats’ defense cannot stop Rivers. The Patriots allow 259.5 passing yards a game (10th-worst in the league). Unlike the Chiefs, the Patriots can’t get to the QB at all. They’re tied with the New York Giants with the third-fewest sacks in the league (24).
Sadly, Brady is slowly but surely declining. Many stats like his touchdown numbers, QBR, and passer rating are down compared to recent years. I know that there are still a few games left to play in the regular season to increase the stats, but you can just watch the Pats play on Sunday and see that Brady is declining. When I say “declining,” I’m not saying he’s terrible. Brady is still one of the best QBs in the league. All I’m saying is he’s a bit worse compared to recent years.
Also, keep in mind that the Chargers are only one game behind the Chiefs for the first-seed in the AFC. So, if the Chargers win out (which includes beating the Chiefs), the Chargers would have home field advantage throughout the whole postseason. The home field advantage at Stub Hub Stadium isn’t that much of an advantage, to be honest. However, what the real benefit is, is stopping their toughest competition (New England and Kanas City) from playing at home because places like Gillette Stadium and Arrowhead Stadium are hard places to play.
The Chargers are one of the league’s best teams, despite many calling them overrated and saying that they barely have a chance to win the AFC. I just wanted to explain to many how great the Chargers are and how good their chances of winning the AFC actually are.
In the comments below, feel free to offer your own opinion on the Chargers’ chances of winning the AFC. Also, I’ve never done an article that’s more about breaking down a team’s roster and their chances in the postseason instead of trashing a player before, so again, feel free to give me some feedback. You can also hit me up on my Twitter @stevenpepper38 and/or Instagram @stevenpepper_