The first month of the NBA offseason is always filled with excitement as the NBA draft, the beginning of free agency, and much of Summer League happens over this span. However, after most of the squads are set, the league becomes stagnant and “analysts” everywhere begin to give their takes on the upcoming year. None of it actually means anything until now (sort of), as the WestGate Las Vegas SuperBook has released their NBA win total projections for the upcoming season:
Over/Under win projections for the upcoming 2018/19 #NBA season: pic.twitter.com/BX2wB45XFv
— RL (@XIXRL) August 6, 2018
So, whether you’re trying to make a quick buck or just want to gain some insight towards how your squad will perform this season, I’ll give my predictions for all 30 teams, starting with the teams that I feel have been highly undervalued.
Part 1: Easy Overs
Chicago Bulls
(Line: 27.5 Last year: 27)
The Bulls are my sleeper team to sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw that Vegas set their line at 27.5, considering they won 27 games last year when they literally benched their better players in hopes of tanking games. This granted them one of the safest picks in the draft in Wendell Carter Jr. who makes a perfect modern NBA front-court pairing with Lauri Markkanen. Their ability to stretch the floor and create open lanes for drivers will be pivotal in their offensive attack. In addition, the Bulls’ young players such as Kris Dunn and Zach Lavine will improve, and the unexpected addition of Jabari Parker can only help them scoring the ball. Expect the Bulls to be very exciting this season offensively but lacking defensively (just like last year’s Nuggets).
San Antonio Spurs
(Line: 43.5 Last year: 47)
The Spurs finally caved, dealing disgruntled franchise centerpiece Kawhi Leanord. Except, unlike how I expected, the Spurs opted to not rebuild, instead, centering the return package around all-star DeMar DeRozan. Everyone knows that Kawhi barely played last season (and when he did, he was not particularly effective), so the Spurs essentially upgraded last year’s team by adding an All-Star and a bench piece for Danny Green. I understand that the West got better and the Spurs’ roster is aging, but who would predict a Gregg-Popovich-coached-team to lose four more games after adding an All-Star?
Houston Rockets
(Line: 54.5 Last year: 65)
I understand that some regression is to be expected from James Harden, that Chris Paul is another year older, and that the Rockets lost a couple of solid defensive pieces, but does that really add up to 11 fewer wins? Clint Capela will surely improve and become one of the league’s premier rim-runners, and the combination of him, Paul, and Harden was near unstoppable last year, posting a 50-5 regular season record with the trio. Let’s not forget that the Rockets took the dynastic Warriors to 7 without their best player (in that series) at the end and with a historically atrocious shooting performance.
Los Angeles Lakers
(Line: 48.5 Last year: 35)
The Lakers added the league’s undisputed best player this off-season and are justifiably expecting internal improvements from four youngsters in Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Brandon Ingram. Keep in mind that the Lakers played significantly better when Lonzo was healthy last season and that they’ll finally have plenty of veterans to guide the young core. LeBron now has secondary playmakers (Lonzo, Rondo), guys that can get their own buckets (Ingram, Kuzma), and multiple young, athletic defensive bodies – all things that I’d argue he hasn’t had since his Miami days. Also, it’s been reported that LeBron is looking to play off the ball more in LA. If this is the case, and he wouldn’t have to consistently run the offense, expect him to reach his career high in points per game.
Stay tuned for Part 2: Easy Unders, where I single out some overrated teams in Vegas’ win total projections. The headliner of this list? The Golden State Warriors.
If you want to debate or comment on my writing, feel free to tweet me @dave_persources or message me on Instagram @david_persources.