It’s that time of the year again. The NFL playoffs are here. What has made this year’s postseason so special already is that no one really knows who’s going to win the Super Bowl. There’s parity in this year’s postseason, and it shows right from the beginning.
To start the NFL postseason, the first game of the playoffs will be an upset. The sixth-seeded Indianapolis Colts will spoil the third-seeded Houston Texans, who had an overachieving season, in my opinion. There are many factors that favor the Colts in this game.
Even though it’s called “home-field advantage,” it’s not really an advantage for the Texans. The Colts went into Houston and beat them last month. Also, the two teams have played each other twice this season since they’re in the same division. This means that the Colts should have a pretty good gameplan on how to beat the Texans.
The Colts are going to go into Houston as the hottest team in the league. They’ve won nine of their last ten games. The Texans, on the other hand, haven’t looked the same since their nine-game win streak was snapped by the Colts.
Houston is the weakest team in the playoffs. In the last month of the regular season, they had the worst pass defense in the league (312.4 passing yards allowed per game). That’s not a good sign for a team that’s going to play a QB who knows this defense. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck racked up 836 passing yards and six touchdowns in their previous two matchups. Not only that, Luck has playoff experience, so he shouldn’t be rattled by the bright lights even when facing a big deficit.
What the Texans would want to do is get their big-name pass rushers like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to make Luck feel uncomfortable and force him to throw some ill-advised balls. Unfortunately for the Texans, that gameplan might not be as easy as it sounds. J.J. Watt and the Texans defense will have a hard time disrupting the Colts passing attack. The Colts have an outstanding offensive line. The big boys up front are led by dominant rookie Quenton Nelson. This unit, which has been awful for majority of the Andrew Luck era, has completely turned it around. This o-line has allowed Luck to be sacked only 18 times (fewest in the league).
The Texans, however, have a good run defense. Colts MVP candidate Andrew Luck will have to carry the load offensively. The QB will have a field day picking apart the lackluster passing defense of the Texans by having all the time in the world to stand and deliver to great pass-catchers like T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron.
Offensively, the Texans have been good, but they have their issues. The pressure will be put on an inexperienced QB in Deshaun Watson to win. I understand that the guy has been great since he entered the league last season, however, he has no playoff experience in this league.
The Colts have been really good at stopping the run, as of late. In their last eight games, the Colts have held their opponents under 100 yards rushing in six of those games. Indy will take Houston RB LaMar Miller out for most of the game. Also, DeAndre Hopkins is Watson’s only reliable receiver to throw to. Expect him to be the main focus defensively for the Colts. Watson will be expected to make something happen offensively, and with no postseason experience, I don’t trust him yet.
I trust him even less with the Texans having one of the worst o-lines in football. They’ve allowed the most sacks in the league (62). That’s a lot of sacks. An inexperienced QB with no protection from the o-line is a nightmare of a mix. It’s like putting a first-time driver in a nice car that has no insurance on a highway that’s speed limit is 70 MPH. It’s a nightmare especially if there are many cars around. Those cars, being likely NFL Defensive Rookie of the year Darius Leonard and Jabaal Sheard, will run right through the Texans OL and hit Watson throughout the game. Again, since they’ve played twice already, the Colts won’t just have a gameplan for the Texans offensively, but defensively as well.
This will be a hard fought game until the fourth quarter. Luck will pull Indy out late by throwing a few TDs and the defense will get a few key stops. I predict that the Colts will win by one or two scores and advance to the AFC Divisional Round where they’ll play the Kansas City Chiefs.
If you do not agree with my prediction feel free to leave a comment below or hit me up on my twitter @StevenPepper38 or my instagram @stevenpepper_