It’s been a common topic everywhere recently: EPL is giving us an absolute treat. Briefly checking the table, there are no obvious surprises, but there’s no real domination either. I won’t say too much about this because I’m too lazy to draw any comparison with last season or any season before. Due to some issues, I’ve missed several match-weeks, so I can’t tell you much about how things are going. However, through some brief stat-checking there’s one good question to ask. Do you have to hold the ball to win football games?
Our two main talking points will be the mighty Manchester City (MCI) and the not-so-mighty Huddersfield Town (HUD). They’re not even on the very top or bottom of the table, so why them? Well, it’s definitely true that they’re not the best or the worst team in the league, table-wise. That’s
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Is football about touching the ball or scoring goals? OR Is it a combination of both?
From the graph, it’s quite clear why we have MCI and HUD as our two major talking points. MCI led the league with the best touches/goal ratio (smaller number) while HUD showed an abysmal touches/goal ratio. Football, just like almost everything else in our world, is about efficiency. Being efficient will lead you to win football games, and honestly, winning is above everything else.
To be perfectly honest, I haven’t watched any HUD games this season, not even when they played against Arsenal (my favorite team) last week. I can’t tell you much how exactly they’re so inefficient with the ball. Do they pass the ball poorly? Do they get dispossessed too easily? You probably could tell me something about them. The only thing I could manage to muster is the fact that HUD is ranked second in most crosses attempted in the league. Maybe, just maybe, it’s not the most efficient way to play.
On the other hand, MCI is just being themselves. Give Pep a whole bunch of good players and some years to instill his system, and here it is. Not only do they have the most touches, but they’re also the most efficient. They win football games by playing with the ball, carving opportunities slowly, making things happen, and not letting their opponents have a go at them. After that, it’s quite clear; MCI is lurking at the summit while HUD is struggling at the bottom.
Apart from MCI and HUD, Bournemouth (BOR) and Cardiff (CAR) also deserve a short discussion for themselves. BOR isn’t even top-10 in touches, but they’re top-five in touches/goal. CAR is, by far, the team with fewer touches, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of touches/goal. I do like how BOR play the game. In short; Callum Wilson has a good football brain, and Ryan Fraser’s touches have been enjoyable lately. They knock the ball down and make smart passes. And for CAR? Well, Tony Pullis would love to adopt them as his children surely, even with the fact that they don’t seem aggressive.
Does it tell us enough about how to win football games? Nope. We have just a little bit more to add. Check this graph out:
To win football games, you have to take your chances.
Well, it’s starting to become clear why HUD isn’t doing too well. It’s not that their touches turn into nothing, it’s just that they’re not finding the goal as often as they should probably be. Only Southampton are ahead of them with a worse shots/goal ratio in the league. On the other hand, MCI is a stark contrast. They’re trailing only to Arsenal in terms of having the best shots/goal ratio.
Again, I have no clue how this could possibly be for HUD. Peeking at some of their stats, this might come down to Aaron Mooy. He’s currently making the most passes for HUD, slightly more than Jonathan Hogg, while only creating one big chance and crossing the ball 85 times compared to Hogg’s three. Furthermore, he shoots almost 16% of HUD total shots, scoring two goals. To be fair, he’s a good player. This might lead to a situation where his teammates are just hoping for him to make things happen for them. With Mooy out until February, we’ll see later where this puts them.
On the other hand, I don’t think that I have to say a lot about MCI. We should note that Arsenal finally know how to score goals. Took Wenger 21412451215 years to admit that lethal strikers are important to win football games. Additionally, Brighton has performed well and efficient, as well. Given more touches, they might be able to score more goals and climb the table later on.
Note: Can stats tell you how to win football games?
There’s no exact answer to that for sure! However, stats can tell us a lot of interesting things. Football games are played on the field, but I tell you this; men lie, women lie, stats don’t lie. Well, I’m back with a bang, and I’ll start this stat series. Please tell me if you have some interesting stats to check out.
-Yudiandra