Nikola Jokic is the best offensive big man in the league, and he’s ready to burn it all down. I wrote the bulk of this piece in the early parts of July when free agency had already peaked and Jokic became a max player. Since then, he’s done nothing but prove me right. Meet Nikola Jokic – the NBA’s best offensive big man.
The most important news of the 2018 NBA Free Agency Bonanza came on July 9.
Per Shams on Twitter, on that day, Nikola “Joker” Jokic signed a five-year, $146.5 million max contract with the Denver Nuggets. This move locked down the best offensive big man in the league for the foreseeable future and made the battle for the Western Conference Playoffs even more interesting.
It’s easy to forget that the Nuggets came one game away from making the Playoffs last year.
(And probably getting swept in the first round). Denver played their last game of the 2017-18 season into overtime at Minnesota in a do-or-die situation where the winner would advance to the Playoffs.
The Joker grabbed 10 boards, picked up 35 points on 14/25 shooting (including four 3-pointers), had a team-best +7, and probably should’ve received some more foul calls considering the amount of contact he absorbed on those shots. However, the long game exposed major concerns about Jokic’s game. His defense against KAT was honestly solid. However, Towns still scored 26 points on 12/19 shooting and picked up four offensive rebounds. Jokic also missed six of his last eight shots and gave up a crucial late-game turnover to Taj Gibson in what seemed to be a fatigue-caused breakdown.
We consider Jokic a steal at the 41st pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, but his stamina and defensive deficiencies were big reasons for so many teams passing on him (including the Nuggets twice at picks 16 and 19). On the stamina front, Jokic has shown improvement from year to year. He went from 21.7 MPG in the 2015-16 season to 27.9 the next, to 32.6 MPG this past season. As the Joker cuts down on the Coca-Cola and continues to work out in an NBA environment, we can expect continued improvement there.
On the defensive end,
Jokic has gained better instincts over the first three years of his career. Nonetheless, his stocky body, slow lateral movement, and relatively low vertical still hold him back from being a truly effective deterrent around the rim, never mind on the perimeter.
Of course, people once held similar concerns about Marc Gasol, who went through a second puberty three years into playing in the NBA. As Gasol lost weight and gained some lateral quickness, his off-ball smarts and team defense quarterbacking earned him the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year award.
It’s safe to say that that kind of defensive impact is possible for Jokic given some weight loss and improvement of defensive IQ, even if it’s far from guaranteed. He’s shown reason to hope for a different kind of defensive impact with his quick hands. His court vision allows him to easily deflect lazy passes. He’s never averaged less than a steal per 36 minutes, and his four steals rounded out his perfect triple-double quite nicely.
Meanwhile, here’s what we do know about Jokic.
He’s one of the best scoring big men in the game. This includes a solid career .366 3P% and an impressive .571 percentage from the corner this past season. His post-up game makes LeBron James look small. He had a remarkable 60.3 TS% in 2017-18, and he also has a nice touch around the basket. This past season, Jokic converted on 67.4% of his shots with three feet of the basket. He has good discipline in terms of fouling, never averaging more than three fouls per game. He’s a profoundly effective rebounder, averaging 9.2 RPG and a cool 2.6 ORB for his career.
Oh, not to bury the lede, but Jokic is also the best passing big man in basketball, maybe ever. Anyone who watched any Nuggets’ games last season already knew this to be true. With Denver trading away Jusuf Nurkic to Portland and finally giving Jokic the ball full-time, the numbers have finally started to reflect that. Jokic followed up a solid 4.9 APG season with an absurd 6.1 APG that led the leagues’ centers by a large margin and only trailed Draymond Green among bigs. He’s started off this season averaging 7.0 APG, which is ridiculous. Among all players in the NBA 6’10” or taller in the 17-18 season, Jokic’s 28.6 assist percentage was only less than Ben Simmons, who is literally a point guard.
Jokic’s passing ability can’t be overstated. It truly makes the Nuggets offense run properly. Denver has this set they run where one of their three guards gives it to Jokic in the high-post. The three guards start running around maniacally while Jokic picks one to give an easy basket. It’s simple, effective, and impossible without a passer of Jokic’s caliber.
The issues with Jokic’s offensive game have never been his talent or skill.
His stamina and willingness to take shots instead of passing have held him back more than anything else. He’s yet to play more than 33 minutes in a game this season. (That honestly just makes his perfect trip-dub even more insane). Imagine what his stats could be if he played that well for 34-38 MPG. He also hasn’t shot more than 14 shots in a game this year. In fact, Jokic has never shot more than 25 shots in a basketball game. Compare that to the efficiency-challenged Russell Westbrook, who has shot at least 30 in a single game in six different seasons.
Certainly, Jokic’s ability to pick his spots and not force shots has been part of what has made him one of the most efficient offensive players in the league. But even as his shot attempts have gone up over the past couple of seasons, his efficiency has not faltered. Last season, Jokic had some issues in two-point range (from .628 2P% to .538). However, he made up for it by shooting a career-high .396 3P% while taking nearly twice as many threes as the season before.
If anything, Jokic could easily challenge the statistical dominance of Karl-Anthony Towns if he shot a bit more. And as the Jimmy Butler saga continues, we may be left to wonder whether Jokic might actually be the better offensive-minded big. (He is.)
And now we’re here, one season of development later.
Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are still in Denver, coming back improved and more experienced. Paul Millsap might not miss 44 games this year. Michael Porter Jr. might be great if his back isn’t a major problem for him. The Nuggets’ defense was the best in the league for a hot second. Will Barton’s injury might open up opportunities for the young guys up and down the roster. Isaiah Thomas might still have the juice. In other words, the Nuggets are a real wild card right now. One thing’s for certain, though. The Joker is ready to deal with whatever hand he’s dealt.
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