This offseason the Chicago Bulls made two big moves, more specifically restricted free agency. The organization matched a four-year $78 million offer sheet from the Sacramento Kings on Zach LaVine and stole Jabari Parker away from the Milwaukee Bucks with a two-year $40 million deal with a team option on the second year.
Both moves were financial gambles from the typically fiscally tight-fisted duo of Gar Forman and John Paxson that signified a departure from the short-lived full-blast Chicago Bulls rebuild.
With a potential starting five of Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Jabari Parker, Lauri Markkanen, and Wendell Carter, the Bulls could be in the running for a playoff spot in the post-LeBron East. Although projected 14th in the East according to Las Vegas, I think Chicago has a real chance to compete. After the clear top five of Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Indiana, there’s a maelstrom of mediocrity. The real contenders for the final playoff spots, in my opinion, are Miami, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, and Chicago.
Let’s break it down team by team. Miami has been a steady force in the background of the East since the King’s return to Cleveland. Spoelstra has shed the image of being LeBron’s assistant and introduced himself as a force to be reckoned with. Dragic has flourished since his Phoenix exodus, Winslow continues to steadily improve, and they have quality role players in Kelly Olynyk, the Johnsons, and Josh Richardson. If Wade returns they could give a heavily favored Eastern Conference team fits early. I think they’re in, but they’ll be borderline.
Detroit was spotty last season and appear to be running their operation as if it’s 2008. They’ve sunk a combined $61 million into the frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. They hired Dwane Casey, though, and despite his many deficiencies, he can do one thing well: win regular season games. The Pistons have the talent to compete with a weakened East, so I think they’ll be in as well.
Washington appears to loom the largest with the best two players from that entire group in John Wall and Bradley Beal. The only problem is that they appear to hate each other. Thankfully the Wizards rectified this situation by bringing in two great locker room presences in Dwight Howard and Austin Rivers. The chances of a complete implosion on par with “The Fellowship of the Ring” are high. I believe Washington is on the brink of missing the playoffs this season.
Cleveland is intriguing. If Kevin Love has a renaissance, he could combine with the youthful ferocity of Collin Sexton to tear apart complacent or tanking teams. Unfortunately, there are too many remnants of LeBron’s general managership that just can’t be used to their same effectiveness as last season, namely JR Smith and Tristan Thompson. Larry Nance Jr and Jordan Clarkson’s development will be interesting, but I don’t think it will be enough.
This brings me to my point. The Chicago Bulls will be a playoff team. In a rookie class of Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, and Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen largely flew under the national radar. The Finnish big man has been embraced by the “Windy City” and affectionately given the moniker “Baby Dirk.” While I don’t believe Nowitzki production is inbound this upcoming season, it could be on the horizon. He averaged 15 points (fourth for rookies) and 7.5 rebounds (second for rookies) last season. His likely compatriot in the frontcourt, Wendell Carter Jr., seems cut from the same cloth as Clint Capela, a perfect modern center. Carter Jr. dominated summer league, catching shots and showing promise as Markkanen’s low-post wingman.
If the Dunn-LaVine-Parker-Markkanen-Carter lineup can live up to its potential, the Bulls can conceivably steal a playoff spot from the Wizards. On top of that ideal starting five, Chicago has depth in veteran center Robin Lopez, young forward Bobby Portis, and guard Justin Holliday. Furthermore, they’ll no longer be actively trying to lose games like last year. This may seem like I see the Bulls going far. I don’t, but I do think they can sneak into the eighth seed. That’s the problem. Should they?
The East, even with LeBron’s departure, still has that aforementioned top tier of five teams. With the signings of LaVine and Parker, it looks like the Bulls are turning the corner from tanking to trying to compete. Is this the right decision? They’re locking themselves out of the lottery for the conceivable future if they make the jump to the eighth seed with Miami, Detroit, and Washington all trending downwards. Should you be comfortable moving forward with LaVine, Parker, and Markkanen as your top three scorers?
Not only are LaVine and Parker injury prone, but that trio doesn’t stack up well with other East teams even if you place all three Bulls at their optimistic peaks. Boston has Irving-Hayward-Tatum, Toronto has Leonard-Lowry-Ibaka, Philly has Embiid-Simmons-Saric/Redick, Indiana has Oladipo-Bogdanovic-Turner, and Milwaukee has Giannis-Middleton-Bledsoe. Other than Indiana, Chicago does not compare favorably with any of these.
I know what most Bulls fans are holding as their ace in the hole: the 2019 offseason. The Bulls have one of the best cap situations in the league, with $23 million in space next year assuming the cap goes up by $3 million. Not only that, they can bump that number up to 43 by declining the team option on Parker.
That means room for at least one max contract to offer to the tantalizing 2019 group of Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard. I don’t think it’s realistic to think you can bring in any of those players if you offered a max outside of Walker or Cousins, and I don’t know how much of a needle mover they really would be for the Bulls if a championship is the goal.
Thompson appears at home in complete comfort with the Warriors, and unless Lacob suddenly decides to save money (doubtful), or Klay develops a Kawhi complex and wants to lead a team (very doubtful), he’s re-signing. Durant, on the other hand, could be an option. He’ll likely have a third ring and, potentially, a third straight Finals MVP.
I never want to be the guy to psychoanalyze professional athletes almost twice my age, but Durant could want another shot at being the clear leader of a team. Chicago could give him chance. I still find this unlikely, though, because as far as I know, Durant has no connection to the city and other teams could provide more helpful supporting casts.
Butler dislikes the city and already demanded out once, there’s no way he wants to buy back in now. There have also been rumors of a team up with Kyrie Irving in New York, so that could lower the chances of Uncle Drew coming to Chicago as well. Leonard has already declared his allegiance to LA, meaning that, as of now, there are three possibilities: the Raptors, Clippers, or Lakers.
Even though the Bulls have the space, I’m not sure who they’d spend it on. The last major free agent addition by the Bulls was Carlos Boozer. This puts Chicago in a bind, as they’ve already locked themselves into a four-year LaVine experiment. As long as they’re trying to win, they should be successful enough to keep them from drafting in the lottery.
Bulls fans should be optimistic about the future. They could, however, be concerned that GarPax may have flipped the switch to competing far too soon.