The phrase “new-look offense” doesn’t just apply to the Chicago Bears new scheme but to the total revamping of the roster as well. Ryan Pace’s re-tooling of the toys Mitchell Trubisky has to work with has Bears fans itching to wonder just how each position player will end up helping the team (and their fantasy squad) pull out wins.
ESPN’s fantasy/statistical analyst Mike Clay looked to try his hand at projecting the stats for each player, offensively and defensively, of each team for this upcoming NFL season. Here’s his projection for our beloved Chicago Bears:
2018 Chicago Bears #ClayProjections —> Game-by-game predictions, player projections, unit grades + more! pic.twitter.com/0vqXAFNlrq
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 15, 2018
Skimming through some of the stat lines, I have to say that this seems fairly realistic. While it’s easy to ride the hype-wave and try to hand Trubisky the league MVP trophy now, a rookie coach and a fairly young team have to come into play when trying to predict their success.
The statistical outputs mainly rely on Matt Nagy’s ability to get his play-makers into mismatches, and Trubisky’s ability to be accurate and smart. And, while we’ve seen flashes from #10 in a washed season in 2017, his true judgment will come this year when he has viable weapons at his disposal.
That being said, let’s take a closer look at the projections for key position players on offense and which numbers should be over, under, or stay put.
QB, Mitch Trubisky
Projection: 3,951 yds, 23 TD’s, 13 INTs, 346 Comp – 567 Att (61%), 2 rush TD’s
Reaction: Yards, Completion Percentage, and Interceptions should stay put. I’ll take the over on Touchdowns.
Trubisky’s number of passing TD’s in 2017 wasn’t pretty, in large part because of John Fox’s paranoia in the redzone. With big-body weapons like Allen Robinson, Adam Shaheen, and Trey Burton coupled with speedy guys Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen, I expect Nagy to get creative when inside the 20-yard line and let Trubisky sling it to one of these guys on multiple occasions. It also helps that Jordan Howard is a major threat inside the 5. Play-action-boots will increase Trubisky’s passing and rushing TD totals.
RB, Jordan Howard
Projection: 240 att, 1,025 rush yds, 7 TD’s, 25 rec (33 targets), 197 rec yds, 1 rec TD
Reaction: Yep, sounds about right. Stay put on most, but I’d go under a tad on attempts.
This projection has Howard averaging 4.3 YPC, which sounds realistic since Nagy will most likely rely on Trubisky’s arm for chunks of yardage. I do believe the Bears offensive line will be one of the best in the league, provided they stay healthy. So, I’ll keep the yards and shave some attempts off.
Howard has been a workhorse-back for John Fox’s simplistic offenses the past two years. Although he’s an elite runner, he isn’t the same back Nagy utilized with the Chiefs in Kareem Hunt. Using Howard as a “body shots” strategy toward opposing defenses could be the way Nagy uses him, wearing them down to only open up the middle of the field for Trubisky to dissect.
RB, Tarik Cohen
Projection: 76 att, 313 rush yds, 2 TD’s, 60 rec (77 targets), 470 rec yds, 2 rec TD’s
Reaction: Over! Except for receptions, those can stay put.
It’s hard to believe that Nagy’s most explosive and versatile weapon will tally only 783 total yards in receiving and rushing. While I do agree that his production will mostly come from the passing game, I can’t see him only netting 20 YPG in the run game. Giving him productive carries will be tough. His number will be searched for by most defenders when the Bears break the huddle. His rushing production will be reliant on how effective the passing game is. Forcing defenses in nickel situations and running with Cohen out of the shotgun may be a route Nagy and Co. choose to go.
WR, Allen Robinson
Projection: 73 rec (137 targets), 1,046 yds, 7 TD’s
Reaction: Stay put.
Coming off a knee injury, it’s yet to be determined just how much of 2016-Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson will Chicago get. Pre-injury, Robinson was one of the better big-body route runners in the league. A true dual-threat to not only take advantage of his 6’3″ frame and snag jump-balls at the highest point but also get separation on short, timing-based routes. Trubisky showed during his rookie campaign that he likes to spread the ball around the field, but now that he has a true number-one on the outside, Robinson will be Mitch’s blanket of comfort, especially on third-down. In their first year together, this projection seems realistic.
WR, Anthony Miller
Projection: 51 rec (88 targets), 657 yds, 3 TD’s
Reaction: I’ll take the under here.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m certainly sipping the Anthony-Miller-kool-aid and was stoked when Ryan Pace moved up in the second-round to get him. I like his confidence and his drive to be great. I believe he could be the next superstar receiver in the league. There’s just not enough footballs to go around.
I think Trubisky’s top-four targets he’ll be comfortable with are Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. This projection would put Miller in the conversation for Offensive Rookie of the Year. While I don’t think OROY is crazy-talk, for Miller to have this stat-line there may have to be an injury to either Allen Robinson or Taylor Gabriel.
WR, Taylor Gabriel
Projection: 38 rec (60 targets), 490 yds, 2 TD’s
Reaction: Nah. I’ll take the over.
As I stated earlier, I expect Gabriel to be one of Trubisky’s more comfortable targets. Essentially, I would switch Anthony Miller’s projections with Gabriel’s and call it a day. While I don’t think he’s as explosive, I believe Gabriel could act as the Tyreke-Hill-type of weapon in Nagy’s offense, as will Tarik Cohen. This projection slates Taylor to have 12.8 yards per catch, which is realistic as his production may come in big chunks if Nagy can get creative enough in exposing match-ups.
TE, Trey Burton
Projection: 51 rec (77 targets), 558 yds, 4 TD’s
Reaction: I’ll take it, and stay put.
A “swing-tight-end” is what he’s been labeled, but given his ability to create mismatches in the middle of the field against linebackers (not to mention his salary), I think it’s safe to say that Burton will be the feature pass-catching TE on the roster. Burton is definitely a “tweener” given that he’s too big to be a WR and too small to be a full-time TE. For creating mismatches, however, that problem is a good one to have for Nagy and Trubisky. Expect Burton to have the second most targets this season in a breakout year.
TE, Adam Shaheen
Projection: 23 rec (33 targets), 243 yds, 2 TD’s
Reaction: A tad too low. I’m going with the over.
This kid is 6’6″, 270 lbs and showed flashes of being faster-than-advertised in his rookie year. Nagy would be hard pressed not to find a more productive role for Ryan Pace’s 2017 second-round pick. Shaheen caught two impressive fade-route touchdowns from Trubisky last year, which makes him an intriguing redzone threat. 243 yds would only be a 100-yd upgrade from his underwhelming rookie stint. The Bears might have one of the most interesting change-of-pace TE combos in the league with Burton and Shaheen. I think Nagy uses that to his advantage.
Defense (to be continued…)
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