A frustrating playoffs start for the Los Angeles Clippers, coupled with a frustrating calendar year, has lead many NBA fans to question the Clippers. Many, including myself, wondered if Kawhi Leonard was still that top tier player in the world like he was in 2019. After the Clippers rallied to defeat Luka Doncic and the Mavericks, some NBA analysts have once again began to speculate that the Clippers would go to the NBA finals. Many have been asking me, are the Clippers now the western conference favorites to head to the NBA finals? Let’s dive in and see just how good the Los Angeles Clippers are.
Do the Clippers have the tools to be the western conference favorites?
On paper, it’s very hard to argue that the Los Angeles Clippers are not the western conference favorites. Their roster several NBA champions, including a proven NBA Finals MVP in Kawhi Leonard. They also have a healthy combination of current and former all-stars. Although many have questioned Paul George’s mental toughness in the playoffs, there is no denying that Paul George is one of the most talented wings in the NBA.
They are technically lead by a champion head coach in Tyronn Lue.
Clippers’ advanced stats.
Taking a look at the Clippers’ advanced stats will help us determine if they truly are the western conference favorites. If you’ve been following Per Sources for a while, you know there are a few advanced stats I care about more than others.
Clippers’ 2020-2021 regular season advanced stats rankings:
- OFF RTG: 3rd
- DEF RTG: 8th
- AST%: 21st
- 3PM: 6th
- 3P%: 1st
- FG%: 5th
- OPP 3PM: 6th
Clippers’ 2020-2021 playoffs advanced stats rankings:
- OFF RTG: 6th
- DEF RTG: 8th
- AST%: 4th
- 3PM: 7th
- 3P%: 7th
- FG%: 4th
- OPP 3PM: 12th
What the Clippers’ advanced stats tell me about them.
My simple formula should help us determine if the Los Angeles Clippers are the western conference favorites or not. Their ability to score is not the most important thing for me. I also need to know how they score. I tend to favor teams with a high AST %, as many of those teams have won the NBA championship since the 2011 Mavericks.
However, having a couple players who are capable of scoring in isolation is also critical.
The Clippers did not play together as well as they should early on the year. I’d argue there was a trend in the right direction since they acquired Rajon Rondo. Over their last 15 games, they improved to 14th best in the NBA. As we saw vs the Mavericks, they improved in this category.
How the Clippers can make it to the NBA Finals.
As of right now, I do believe that the Clippers are the western conference favorites. Here is how they live up to that.
Moving the basketball is essential to the success of the Clippers. Yes, Leonard and George can bail them out in the shot clock. However, if they’re going to beat top ranked defenses like the Jazz, Suns, or underrated Nuggets, they’re going to need to move the basketball and generate high quality 3P shots.
The Clippers are capable of playing defense at a high level. Their one glaring problem on the defensive end is their lack of ability to defend NBA centers. This has lead many, including me, to believe that they intentionally tanked in order to avoid having to play Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Should the Nuggets lose vs the Suns, the Clippers will avoid having to face their one weakness.
The Jazz made the most 3P shots in the NBA this season. The Clippers have previously shown a strong ability to defend the 3P shot. Pair that with the fact that Rudy Gobert is somewhat limited as a scorer, the Clippers should have a strong shot at beating the Jazz.
Lastly, I’ve seen Leonard shut down teams that do not pass well several times before. Doncic and Harden both struggled when guarded by Leonard. The Jazz are one of those teams who do not pass at a high level, which lead me to have doubt in them early in the year.
In summary, I do believe the Clippers are the western conference favorites.
My theory on the importance of AST % will be heavily put to the test this series. On paper, I believe the Clippers have the tools to make it to the NBA finals. However, I do have concerns about them as well. Last season, they lost to the Nuggets when they shouldn’t have. Paul George is heavily influenced by the negativity on social media. The Clippers have been labeled as soft prior to acquiring Rajon Rondo.
Let me be clear, I think the western conference is wide open right now. I love the way the Denver Nuggets play the game of basketball. The Suns and Jazz have been dominant all year. There are no weak links and any of them could make it to the NBA Finals.
However, if the Clippers were not to make it to the NBA Finals, I would consider that an embarrassing failure. They have the best duo left in the western conference playoffs. They have the combination of youth and veterans that a championship roster requires. The Clippers should make it to the NBA finals.
Is this the group that will end the Clippers curse? Let me know your thoughts via our Per Sources Instagram or tweet me @TPRx11 .