Despite Karl-Anthony Towns playing just 35 games and amassing a 19-45 record, this may be the most productive season the Minnesota Timberwolves have had in a while. The Wolves have an unfortunate yet hilarious history of failing to put together quality pieces around star big men whose names begin with “K,” and it seemed like they were on track for that same process with Towns.
Mid-way through the season, Towns reportedly exploded in the team locker room after their 13th straight loss, stormily announcing his frustrations over Minnesota’s lack of direction. Everyone thought the same thing. Here we go again. We’ve seen this movie twice before with Kevin Garnett and Kevin Love. KAT’s going to get traded in some blockbuster to form the newest NBA superteam, and Minnesota’s back to the bottom of the barrel.
Except, Minnesota surprised us all and probably added a few years back to the lives of some diehard Timberwolves fans. They made two intriguing deals, trading for Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, and most importantly, D’Angelo Russell. It came at no small price, at the cost of Robert Covington, Andrew Wiggins, and a top-three protected 2021 first-round pick. But, it was worth it. You don’t have to win the trade in terms of ‘value’ in order for it to work out.
Covington’s loss is devastating to the Wolves’ defense, but Beasley has looked like one of the best shooters in the league in his 14 games with Minnesota. Seriously—we all already knew Beasley could shoot but 8.2 three’s a game on 42.6%? That’s just ridiculous, considering the volume and accuracy. Hernangomez has been a solid rotation piece and has averaged 12.9 PPG on 42.0 3PT% with the Wolves this year.
Trading Wiggins is a victory in itself. The disappointing former first overall draft pick is owed over $30 million a year for the next three seasons. Getting back D’Angelo Russell, one of the most lethal off-the-dribble shooters in the league is even better. Losing the 2021 draft could potentially prove disastrous, but there’s risk attached to every good decision.
Minnesota’s past the point of waiting for young prospects to develop, which softens the blow of losing that pick. Towns will be 25 next year, and if the Timberwolves were to finish with a high pick again, they might not have had Towns much longer. Ideally, Minnesota is good enough next year with Russell so that pick doesn’t become that valuable.
This is all good, but how do the Timberwolves capitalize? Even with the addition of Russell, who averaged 23.1 PPG and 6.3 AST on 51.7 eFG% this year, the Wolves still might not have enough to make the playoffs.
The Lakers, Rockets, Blazers, Clippers, Nuggets, Jazz, Mavericks, Thunder, and Grizzlies will still be around. The Kings and Pelicans are on the rise, and the Warriors will be back and healthy. San Antonio might blow it up and create some breathing room, but even Phoenix is going to push for the playoffs. It’s debatable that Wolves are better than any of these teams, especially given their current lack of defense. So what does Minnesota have to do to A. Make the playoffs next year and B. Become a championship contender?
Evaluating The Current Situation
Towns has the talent to be a top-10 player in the league and a top-5 offensive player. In fact, he may just be the most versatile scoring big man in NBA history. If that sounds crazy, consider the fact that he’s 6-foot-11 and 250 pounds, possesses elite athleticism and coordination, shoots 41.9% from three on 7.9 attempts a game, has the ball-handling to cross over his man and pull off step-backs, all while being an efficient post player and monster rebounder. There’s not a serious criticism you can have of Towns’ offensive game.
There’s never been a player like Towns with all those traits combined. Nowitzki may have been able to shoot, but he never took over five 3PTs a game and didn’t have half the athleticism Towns is blessed with. Embiid and Jokic are elite in their own ways as well, but neither have the same combination of athleticism and shooting. This isn’t to say Towns is better than any of these players, but to emphasize he’s already an elite offensive talent who can score from anywhere on the court. We haven’t seen it to this degree ever before.
There’s a reason why Towns averaged 26.5 PPG, 10.8 REB, and 4.4 AST this year on 50.8 FG% and 41.2 3PT%. He’s improved his game every year of his career, and at age 24, Towns has the talent to be the top option on a championship team.
Yes, he didn’t play well in his lone playoffs appearance back in 2018. He was also only 22 years old. There are questions about his toughness and if he’s got the leadership to be ‘the guy.’ To that, there are questions about nearly every NBA player’s character, and that doesn’t always hold them back from a championship. Kobe and MJ were ‘too selfish.’ LeBron was ‘too soft.’ Steph was ‘a choker.’ Durant was ‘a snake.’ The moral of the story is that nobody’s perfect. Saying Towns can’t mature and overcome his flaws is both premature and condescending.
His running mate, D’Angelo Russell, may or may not be good enough to be the second option. Russell has averaged 21.7 PPG and 6.7 AST on 43.1 FG% and 36.8 3PT% over the last two years. Some critics point to his ‘inefficiency,’ but consider he’s also taken 8.5 3PTs a game in that span and his overall eFG% is 51.4%. Three is better than two, remember? Russell’s been one of the most lethal pull-up shooters in the game. He’s on the same level as guys like Kemba Walker and Kyle Lowry. However, due to his below-average athleticism, attacking the basket and drawing free throws aren’t his strengths. He’s only taking 2.9 free throws a game for his career, significantly lower than Walker’s 4.7 average or Lowry’s 4.6 attempts in Toronto.
Because of this, Russell often has to settle for a contested floater or difficult mid-range shot because he doesn’t have the speed to blow by his man. This holds him back from being on the same level as Walker or Lowry (aside from the defense). It’s going to be hard for Russell to significantly improve that area of his game. No matter how good his ball-handling is, without the quickness of Walker or the strength and timing of Lowry, slashing will be a challenge.
However, let’s say Russell takes the Steve Nash route and develops an all-time great floater/runner game while learning how to draw fouls more consistently. That’s probably an All-Star level player that’s good enough to be the Robin to Towns’ Batman.
What’s next? Malik Beasley and Jarrett Culver are the next two question marks.
Beasley has definitely proven his ability to shoot the ball—38.8% on 3.6 three’s a game for his career. Combined with that hot stretch he ripped through in Minnesota, it’s safe to assume he’s got some potential. Maintaining what he did in those first 14 games with Minnesota might be asking too much. Perhaps he can shoot 37% on six-to-eight 3PTs a game. Beasley has an uncanny ability for getting his shot off-the-dribble and off-the-catch. However, because both Beasley and Russell are lackluster defenders, bringing Beasley off the bench is a better idea than starting. His defense won’t be as exposed by less-talented opposing second units, and he’ll have more opportunities to shoot.
Minnesota is probably far less confident in Culver, who had one of the worst rookie campaigns from last year’s draft. Culver averaged 9.2 PPG, 3.4 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.9 STL, and 0.6 BLK while slashing 40.4/29.9/46.2. Those numbers aren’t exactly comforting for a 21-year-old who was the sixth pick. Not all hope is lost, however. There was an 11-game stretch where Culver averaged 15.9 PPG, 5.3 REB, 2.2 AST, and 1.4 STL on 45.8 FG% and 32.1 3PT%. Of course, he followed it up with a nine-game stinker shooting just 29.5% from the field and averaged 5.1 PPG. But, hey, let’s look at the positives here, because what else does Culver have going for him right now?
The biggest problem is his shooting. Culver has bad mechanics and bad percentages. The FT% is troubling considering it’s one of the best indicators of a player’s shooting abilities. Culver is putrid at the line. shooting just 46.2% this season. He shot just 30.4% from 3PT in his last year in college and 70.7% FT%, which aren’t comforting numbers either. There’s a high likelihood Culver is never even an average shooter in the NBA. However, he’s shown value as a defender and as a ball-handler.
At 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Culver was a positive on defense this year. He posted a 109.3 defensive rating while the rest of the Wolves sat at 111.6. He’s also a better ball-handler than people give him credit for and showed some passing chops. Perhaps he grows into a secondary playmaker who can help get Towns the ball (teams with great centers often waste their talents with bad ball-handlers) and cover for Russell’s and Towns’ defensive deficiencies.
If not though, Minnesota shouldn’t be hesitant to deal Culver as early as next season. The Wolves don’t have time for players to develop into role players, and Culver could still fetch value while young.
Josh Okogie and Juan Hernangomez should also be kept around. Okogie has a good defensive presence that is valuable in any situation. He hasn’t found his shot yet, but off-the-bench, his infectious energy would be maximized. Hernangomez is an all-around solid floor spacer who can give Minnesota a solid 20-25 minutes a night. These are both solid rotation pieces than can integral to the championship equation.
If Beasley can maintain his shooting and volume, the Wolves could have three of the best shooters in the league. That should be enough offense to drive at least a top-10 offense. And, Minnesota still has their pick in the 2020 NBA Draft – a 40.1% chance of landing in the top three. This year’s draft being considerably riskier due to the ongoing pandemic. It’s preventing in-person workouts and canceled the NCAA tournament. However, it’s still a great opportunity to pick up some talent.
Coach Ryan Saunders is young and well-liked by his players and doesn’t seem to be an idiot. It’s worth mentioning he even got Andrew Wiggins playing the best ball of his career for a few months. Despite his strange rotation choices (why did Jerryd Bayless get 20 minutes a night again last year?) and the Wolves’ habit of blowing fourth-quarter leads, retaining Saunders could be worth it considering there aren’t any “must-have” coaches on the market right now.
Fixing The Defense
“Defense wins championships” is cliche, but it has truth to it. The 2000-01 Lakers were the worst defensive team to ever win a championship (22nd in defensive rating). If you think Towns and Russell are the next Shaq and Kobe, I don’t know what to say. Most of the time, championship teams are, at least, a top-10 defensive team. The teams that are 10th make up for it with an elite offense (ex. 2016 Cavaliers – third in offensive rating).
Obviously, a core of Towns, Russell, and Beasley is going to need help on defense. Neither Beasley or Russell have distinguished themselves as defenders. Their defensive ratings in Minnesota (119.4 and 114.6 respectively) would both place the Wolves dead last in defense. Towns is also burdened with the reputation of being a terrible defender. That issue has been slightly overstated in recent years.
With Towns anchoring the defense the last five years, the Wolves haven’t finished above 20th in defensive rating. They usually end up between 25-28th. It’s surprising, given Towns has all the tools at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan with both elite coordination and athleticism. It shows on offense whenever he steps back into a 3PT or crosses his man into a rim-ripping dunk, but that hasn’t translated into defense yet.
Earlier in his career, taking advantage of Towns on defense was like taking candy from a baby. The slightest head fake was all it took to send him flying by. He was often reluctant to get into a proper defensive stance when guarding on the perimeter. For someone so spry on offense, it’s a headscratcher as to how Towns gets caught with his feet crossed and flat-footed so often.
Although Towns is often still criticized for his late rotations and absent-mindedness, his effort has gone up since his earlier days. Effort and focus was always the biggest obstacle, but a string of sharp defensive players seem to have shown Towns some value in defense. Although neither Jimmy Butler or Robert Covington had happy endings in Minnesota, both players impacted Towns’ defense positively.
He’s actually solid when he tries in one-on-one situations on the perimeter, using his size and length to wall off. Directly challenging him at the rim is also usually a mistake. Towns’ ability to snare defensive rebounds is underrated, as the defensive possession doesn’t end until the ball is secured. So, while Towns still isn’t ‘good,’ and ‘average’ might be a stretch, he’s no liability.
Unfortunately, while you can get away with having below-average defenders at the guard positions, that’s not an option for center if you want to win. It’s more important to have a good defensive big man than a good defensive wing, something many NBA fans overlook. Bigs are the rim protectors, who guard and prevent the easiest shot in the game. In the last 30 years, only three wings/guards (Kawhi Leonard, Ron Artest, and Gary Payton) have won DPOY. Towns will be 25 next season and 25-year-old offensive superstars rarely make sudden, drastic improvements to their defense. If Towns isn’t going to be that defensive anchor, Minnesota needs to fill that hole at power forward.
The way Denver has masked Nikola Jokic on defense with Paul Millsap should be expanded upon in Minnesota. Ironically, Jokic and Towns have opposite problems on defense. Jokic understands rotations well enough and is disciplined but lacks the athleticism to react quick enough. The Wolves need their version of Millsap, a staunch enough player who can protect the rim when Towns makes a mistake but is also smart enough to quickly organize the Wolves back into proper coverage.
Some other players that can be used as examples are Draymond Green and Serge Ibaka. This is the player the Grizzlies hope Brandon Clarke can turn into and what Aaron Gordon might’ve been had the Magic not jacked up his future. Unfortunately, there’s not exactly a surplus of those types of players in the league. Unsurprisingly, smart, versatile defenders aren’t exactly abundant. Ironically, Covington could’ve played this role for Minnesota.
Given a do-over and had Minnesota known Russell would be available for trade just two days later, the Wolves likely would’ve opted to keep Covington instead of trading for Beasley. James Johnson might’ve been that player earlier in his career for Minnesota. At 34, that might be asking for too much. Although Johnson’s been excellent for Minnesota in his 14 games he’s played so far—12.0 PPG on 56.6 eFG% and 1.4 STL and 1.4 BLK—the Wolves need someone for the future.
Free Agency
Jerami Grant will be a free agent this year if he declines his player option. The 6-foot-8 forward is shooting 40% from 3PT this year on 3.4 attempts a game. Grant has a 7-foot-2 wingspan, a sturdy frame, the athletic tools, and the capability to be that guy for Minnesota. He’s agile enough to switch onto wings and most guards, and his tenacity has made him a plus defender. Grant also has experience playing with bigs who have defensive weaknesses, having spent the last season playing with Jokic.
Another intriguing idea is Chris Boucher, who’d likely sign a short deal worth roughly $5 million annually. Although he’s not as good on offense as Grant, Boucher’s shown some potential to be a great defender. He’s 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, possessing excellent lateral quickness and timing. He blocked 4.1 shots a game in 28 appearances with the Raptors 905 G-League team and has averaged 1.0 blocks a game with the Toronto Raptors in 55 games. This is despite Boucher playing just 13.2 minutes a night; it’s hard to get minutes when two of the game’s smartest big men are on the team (Ibaka and Gasol).
Another cheap but likely more temporary option is JaMychal Green. The 6-foot-8 power forward/center who was an excellent defender in Memphis and has remained effective with the Clippers.
Minnesota has $19 million in cap space this free agency. This is assuming James Johnson opts into his $16 million player option. The Wolves might be able to package Johnson with a pick to some team with ample cap space, like Detroit. This would relieve the stress of pursuing Grant, who could expect a range of $10 to $15 million a year. Beasley’s contract is hard to predict given the tiny sample size. He could realistically sign anywhere between $10 million and $20 million a year.
Other free agents the Wolves should look at include: Kris Dunn, David Nwaba, DeAndre Bembry, Mo Harkless, Courtney Lee, and James Ennis. Minnesota would likely have to overpay to bring any of the guys in considering their status as a non-contender, but that’s the price you pay when you’re a small-market team in frigid Minnesota.
Essentially, the free agency plan should be to beef up the defense with veterans on short term deals (unless it’s Grant, who would be worth a longer deal) while retaining both Beasley and Hernangomez. The Wolves can’t spend too big on extended contracts. They still have to pay Culver if he turns out good, plus the deal they’d have to shell out to whoever they take in this year’s draft.
The Draft
The Wolves’ target should be pretty obvious here. They’re in a three-way tie for the best odds at the first pick. Minnesota should have their eyes set on Anthony Edwards. Inside the Wolves’ projected draft range, there isn’t another prospect that fits Minnesota’s needs more.
James Wiseman and Obi Toppin are both intriguing offensive options. However, Wiseman plays the same position as Towns, and both compound Minnesota’s weaknesses. Wiseman is basically making a high school-to-NBA transition, so his defense will be a big problem.
Although Toppin is a great up-and-down athlete, his mobility and lateral agility are well-noted, making him a significant liability at power forward. Similarly, LaMelo Ball is a huge defensive question mark. Pairing three suspect defenders in Towns, Russell, and Beasley with Ball might be exciting on offense, but it won’t win any rings. Minnesota should focus less on grabbing the offensive star and look more towards the star two-way player.
This is why Edwards fits best.
At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan and possessing elite athleticism, Edwards is a competitor who never lacked energy at Georgia. Although his defensive consistency and awareness can be questioned (he’s 18 years old, give him a break), nobody can doubt Edwards will put in the effort. Two-way teenage stars are basically nonexistent. Players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant were criticized for lackluster defensive effort when they were prospects. Look how they turned out on defense.
With his NBA-ready body and quickness, in a year or two Edwards can cover the opponent’s best offensive guard while Russell takes the other (like Steph and Klay’s relationship). Not to mention, the Wolves’ excellent spacing plays wonderfully towards Edward’s sky-high slashing potential. If the Wolves pick in the top three, Edwards should be their guy.
If Minnesota falls, however, or Edwards comes off the board, Isaac Okoro of Auburn or Onyeka Okongwu from USC would also be excellent choices.
Okoro was one of the best wing defenders in college basketball last year and Okongwu was a monster shot blocker. Although both Okoro and Culver are shaky shooters, Minnesota could just start Hernangomez instead and bench the weaker of the two players. Okongwu would fill that defensive anchor role perfectly at power forward and Towns’ shooting would lessen Okongwu’s shooting woes.
Since there’s no ‘can’t-miss’ prospect in this year’s draft like in previous years, the Wolves should settle for a high-floor player rather than go for the home run. Point guard Killian Hayes from France is another possible selection if the Wolves want another facilitator in the backcourt with Russell, but his defensive questions are also a sticking point. Minnesota won’t pick any later than seventh in the draft, and it’s highly unlikely they miss out on all four of these players.
They also received the 16th pick in the Covington trade. Jaden McDaniels from Washington seems like a natural fit. A 6-foot-10 wing with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, McDaniels shot 33.9% from 3PT his freshman year and is an excellent athlete. With proper development, he can be a great 3-and-D guy who can also occasionally go off-the-dribble. Aleksej Pokuševski from Serbia is also interesting. He’s a 7-foot power forward with a knack for blocking shots and a good-looking stroke from 3PT.
Recap
So, here’s the final ideal plan.
- Draft Anthony Edwards.
- Bring back Malik Beasley on a deal that looks something like four years and $60 million.
- Sign Jerami Grant along with other miscellaneous veterans that know their role.
- Rolls out a starting lineup of Russell, Edwards, Culver, Grant, and Towns, with Beasley off the bench in a Lou Williams microwave role.
- Develop Naz Reid into a capable back-up center while Okogie and Hernangomez play the versatile back up forward role and older veterans like James Ennis and David Nwaba fill out the rest of the rotation.
- Draft a contributor that shouldn’t be relied upon with the 16th pick.
- Make the playoffs as one of the later seeds and put up a good fight before bowing out to one of the top seeds.
Within a year or two, Culver’s shooting has hopefully improved to roughly league average and serves as a Nic Batum-style point forward with his versatile defense. Russell may or may not improve upon his finishing game, but either way is a borderline All-Star with his shooting ability and fits well with the burgeoning Edwards.
On a team with decent spacing and playmaking, Edwards’ athletic gifts are able to bloom, and by his third year, he’s the second option behind Towns, who’s now 28 and a top-five offensive player. Beasley can be counted on for 15-20 PPG off the bench, and his shooting gives opposing defenses fits. With the defense of Edwards, Culver, and Grant combined with the offense of Towns, Russell, and Beasley, in 2022-23 the Wolves ride their way to 50 wins and actually play for something in the playoffs for the first time in 20 years.
A Devin Booker trade is worth mentioning, but it’s hard to see Phoenix going for it unless Booker specifically demands a trade to Minnesota (which could happen). Although Booker, Towns, and Russell are close friends, the Suns have a young core arguably just as good or even better than Minnesota, with Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Kelly Oubre, and Mikal Bridges. Minnesota doesn’t have many assets left in the tank besides draft picks, the earliest of which they could trade is 2023.
Still, it’s far from impossible, and in this era of player empowerment, it may not even be unlikely. Nobody thought Paul George would force his way to the Clippers, and Anthony Davis to the Lakers was far-fetched just a year before it happened. However, this is much harder to predict, so the Wolves shouldn’t count on it.
Of course, this might just all be a fantasy for Wolves fans. Perhaps Beasley becomes a massive overpay and never recaptures that incredible stretch. Towns might prove his haters right and wilt in the limelight. There’s a scarily high chance Culver never properly develops and becomes a bust.
The Wolves could fall in the draft and take Okoro or Okongwu, and though they end being great defensive players, they might never be able to match the offensive output Edwards could produce. Honestly, given the past track record of the Minnesota front office, everything falling apart seems much more likely than any real success.
Come back to this article in three years when Towns gets traded for a bag of chips to form a new super team with Luka Doncic or something.
Instagram: @j_persources