A strong draft can drastically change an NBA franchise. Take, for example, the Baltimore Bullets. In the 1968 season, they went 36-46 and selected Wes Unseld in the following draft. In Unseld’s rookie season, the Bullets went 57-25. He won MVP honors. While stories like Unseld’s are rare (no once since has won MVP as a rookie), an NBA freshman can still impact their team.
As the 2020 season comes to a close and teams begin to shift their focus to preparing for the playoffs, a handful of clubs are instead getting ready for this year’s draft. Today, we look at who each NBA lottery contender should be targeting if the ping-pong balls fall their way.
Lottery odds are accurate as of 3/4/20
Golden State Warriors (14% chance)
I’d first like to address that the Warriors being in contention for a top pick in the draft almost feels like cheating. Once Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are fully healthy (the two combined have played fewer minutes than Alen Smailagić), they’ll be back to their 60-win seasons. Until then, however, Golden State is on pace for their third-worst record in franchise history.
At full strength, the Warriors have bona fide studs at the PG, SG, and SF: Curry, the recently acquired Andrew Wiggins, and Thompson. Add power forwards Draymond Green and Marquese Chriss, and you’ve got an incredibly strong lineup with a gaping hole at center. This isn’t a new problem. Golden State’s last All-Star center was David Lee in 2013, but they have an opportunity to remedy the issue with this year’s draft.
James Wiseman, who played three games for Memphis before his retirement from the NCAA, is the true center the Warriors need. His strong finishing would pair well as a pick-and-roll partner for Curry, and his incredible low defense would provide solidity in the post that’s been missing for years.
Wiseman’s lack of readily available film and absence from competitive basketball over the past months certainly hurt his stock, but taking anyone else with the number first pick would, frankly, be a wasted pick for the Warriors.
With that said, Golden State is the only team I can comfortably predict trading away their number one pick. That pick, paired with say Chriss or another piece, could potentially bring in a star big man.
Cleveland Cavaliers (14% chance)
Much like the Warriors, the Cavs have an abundance of guards, having spent their past two first-round picks on Darius Garland and Collin Sexton. For that reason, Wiseman again appears as a likely selection.
Despite this, the Cavs traded for rebounding superstar Andre Drummond, and this past summer, signed Kevin Love to a lucrative extension. On top of that, they own the Bird Rights to career Cavalier Tristan Thompson. While Drummond does have a player option and may choose to end his tenure with Cleveland, he could easily pick up his option after he recognizes he’s no longer worth $28 million.
If (and likely when) the Cavs retain Drummond, Thompson, and Love, they’ll look to draft a reliable scorer. That comes in the form of UGA’s Anthony Edwards. Edwards is third in SEC scoring and compliments that play with reliable defense. And, while being a 6’5″ shooting guard doesn’t lend itself to the small Cleveland lineup, moving Sexton to point guard and benching Garland makes Edwards an obvious day-one starter.
Minnesota Timberwolves (14% chance)
The Timberwolves already have their franchise pieces in place. Karl-Anthony Towns and the recently acquired D’Angelo Russell are both among the best at their position. Minnesota is just looking for a much-needed third piece to the puzzle. With the PG and C positions locked in, the only choices are a wing or a forward.
Of the three potential positions, Edwards stands out as the likely pick. He’s a great defender and an even better scorer. He also fills the holes left after trading Robert Covington and Wiggins.
Atlanta Hawks (12.5% chance)
Like the Timberwolves, the Hawks already have a strong core with Trae Young, John Collins, and Clint Capela. Add in wings Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, and De’Andre Hunter – all three in their first two years in the league – and there doesn’t appear to be much of a position of need for the Hawks.
Be that as it may, if the Hawks win the lotto, there’s only one obvious selection. With Young, an All-Star, already in place and commitments to both Collins and Capela in the front-court, the Hawks will look to beef up their wing play.
The aforementioned Huerter, Reddish, and Hunter are in their second, first, and first years of their rookie deals, respectively. Each is playing more than 25 minutes per game and averaging eerily similar numbers. It’d be a bold move to draft a fourth rookie SG/SF in three years, but the Hawks are no stranger to risk (i.e. trading away Luka Doncic). UGA’s Edwards provides both a reliable second scoring option and strong defense to make up for the poor ball-stopping ability of Young.
Add in that Edwards was born in Atlanta and goes to school just an hour and a half away from State Farm Arena, and you have an instant fan-favorite.
New York Knicks (10.5% chance)
Between RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks have a strong group of young players who can blossom into All-Stars. Yet, even if all three of those kids develop to their full potential, there’s still something missing from New York’s roster: a strong point guard.
They currently rely on Elfrid Payton and sophomores Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. for their point guard needs. However, none are strong enough to start on a winning team. While all three would be worthy backups and will serve as good trade fodder in the future, none are likely rock-solid in the Knicks’ future plans.
This makes LaMelo Ball, of the Australian club Illawarra Hawks, an enticing selection for New York. He’s a 6’6″ point guard that you’ll remember as the youngest of the more-celebrity-than-athlete Ball family. As a high school sophomore, he dropped 92 points before leaving with his brother to play professionally in Lithuania. He then briefly returned to the U.S. before playing 27 games a season in Australia.
Ball averaged 17 points with 8 rebounds and 7 assists for the NBL’s Illawarra Hawks, although he did so on an atrocious 37.5% field goal percentage. While he comes short of traditional NBA athleticism, and like his older brother Lonzo, has an unorthodox shooting form, Ball has been playing professional basketball since he was 16. His exposure to high-level play at a younger age than most has Ball looking like a day-one starter in the NBA.
Detroit Pistons (9% chance)
The Pistons are preparing for a full rebuild. With seven players potentially hitting free agency and six still on rookie deals, Detroit is preparing for what could be a dark couple years.
They’re in a situation where there’s no position of need. Yes, they have Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, but with both having a few more years on their contracts, they make good trade bait for contending teams.
Given that, Detroit must select the player with the highest upside. That prospect is LaMelo. In the Australian leagues, he averaged nearly a triple-double per 36 minutes and surprised the world with steady defensive performances. While there are a small handful of warning signs such as his off-court diva nature, and at times, questionable basketball IQ, Ball has shown flashes of surpassing Russell Westbrook as the most consistent triple-double in the NBA.
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