Most NBA teams want a spot in the playoffs. There’s plenty of benefits. The playoffs bring a chance to compete for a title, increased revenue, and something to excite both players and fans. The odds are usually in your favor, as over half the teams in the league are able to participate. LeBron James’ departure makes it even easier, and it’s harder to name a time where making the playoffs was easier in the East.
Even grabbing a lower seed can do much for an NBA team. It brings in more revenue and satisfies fans. Many owners are okay with their team simply being competitive. Playoffs mean that maybe a GM doesn’t have to trade a team’s version of Kemba Walker away. Every seed matters, even the eighth seed.
But why should you, as an NBA fan, care so much about exactly which teams are able to scrap their way into a lower seed? After all, they’re just cannon fodder, right? However, imagine this scenario. The New Orleans Pelicans were only two games out of the playoffs. If they had just dropped two more games, it would have meant their third straight year out of the postseason. Wouldn’t that exponentially increase the chances of Anthony Davis being moved in the near future?
Or say, the Portland Trailblazers miss the playoffs in 2019, which is a possibility in a stacked conference. Would that not compel GM Neil Olshey to ship out one his star guards? Playoffs make a big difference, and certain teams missing the tournament can potentially make a huge impact.
Players can be traded due to prolonged disappointment. Kevin Love was swapped for Andrew Wiggins in 2014 due to six straight years out of the playoffs. DeMarcus Cousins was dumped after six years of failed postseason bids as well. Sometimes, even making the playoffs won’t stop a player moving, like Jimmy Butler and the Chicago Bulls. However, it’ll usually be the key difference between keeping a player or parting ways with him. That’s why NBA fans should pay attention to the bottom seeds, for it’s those teams that are most volatile.
Which is why we’ll examine the potential East teams that can make the 2019 NBA playoffs. Although each team has a checklist of things to complete to succeed, each team has one specific box that should be a priority in filling out.
Before we delve into those teams, we’re going to assume the majority of last year’s participants will be making a return. These include the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Washington Wizards.
So then that leaves two spots open. A couple of the teams excluded have the chance of blowing us out of the water. For that to happen, however, they’ll have most likely achieved what was outlined for them.
Honorable mentions include the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls, who are both too young and lack stars to realistically beat out any of the teams below:
Miami Heat: Gain control of the third quarter
The Heat struggled in the third quarter in 2018. Miami was 29th in points scored in the third quarter. They shot under 44% from the field and were 28th in three-point success at 33%. With all due respect to Dion Waiters, nobody on the roster can take over a game, and the third quarter hit Miami hard.
More metrics show that Miami often undoes whatever success they might have had in the first half. The Heat were nearly a top-10 team in first-half performances, leading on average by 1.1 points per game after the second quarter. Unfortunately, Miami would also head into the fourth quarter at a deficit, after registering a net rating of -1.3 in the third. This led to quite a few unnecessarily close games, and Miami led the league with nailbiters with 53.
Perhaps Spoelstra could tweak his rotations and save Goran Dragic more for the second half. Dion Waiters’ return might bring some help to the offensively starved team. Either way, the Heat need to find a way to work out their third-quarter troubles. Dwyane Wade might not be coming back next year, and without their team leader in fourth-quarter points per game to bail them out, it could get ugly. Hopefully, this is a bump in the road the Heat can smooth out soon, as it’s not worth running over every game they play.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Big man defense steps up
There’s a lot of things that need work in Cleveland. The 2018 playoffs left many observers with poor opinions of the remaining Cavaliers. I’m no different, as their playoff defeat was quite a spectacle. George Hill was clearly terrified of LeBron James, and Rodney Hood had a temper tantrum. Jordan Clarkson flat out didn’t belong on the court. There’s a lot to pick at about the Cavaliers, but we’ll go with the most beaten on issue: their defense.
Much of their success this season will be dependent on their defense, and it could go in two different directions.
Taking a look at the Cavs’ roster, there’s actually no shortage of players who can be positives when engaged. David Nwaba, Rodney Hood, Cedi Osman, George Hill, Larry Nance Jr, J.R. Smith, and Collin Sexton are all above average defenders when engaged (keyword “engaged” when it comes to J.R.). Even Kyle Korver—despite the stereotype—is a solid defender because of his strength and communication. However, notice that all but one of those players are guards or wing.
The Cavs’ big men are all question marks. We don’t know what version of Tristan Thompson will appear in 2019. Kevin Love is only good in 10-second stretches against Curry in Game 7’s and is unplayable against the pick-and-roll. Ante Zizic barely has any experience. You might be surprised to learn that’s all the big men they have.
Despite that, Cleveland has the potential to be a decent defensive team in 2019. Tyronn Lue has to get creative in his scheming to hide Kevin Love, but a supply of long, athletic wings will hopefully prop up the defense. Some more improvement from guys like Cedi Osman will be the cherry on top. They don’t need a top-five defense, just one that’s not 29th in the league. The Cavs’ big men must step up on defense, a goal vital for their chances at the 2019 NBA Playoffs.
Charlotte Hornets: Malik Monk takes a big step forward
2019 is probably going to be Charlotte’s last chance at keeping Kemba Walker. A supermax might get him to stay. If only Charlotte wasn’t in one of the smallest markets in the league with a payroll $15 million above the cap. Walker simply isn’t worth four years and $188 million, so the Hornets will have to tempt him to settle for something less.
A playoff appearance to reassure Walker the team isn’t completely in the dumps might be enough.
Charlotte was awful whenever Kemba Walker took a rest. When Kemba was on the court, the Hornets managed a 109.7 offensive rating, well above average. However, once Kemba sat, it dropped to a putrid 100.8. That was a rating tied for last in the league.
Clearly, Walker needs more help on offense. Nicolas Batum is a decent playmaker but can’t consistently score. Tony Parker isn’t good enough anymore to make a difference, and aside from Jeremy Lamb much of the team is below average on offense. It’s unfair to place expectations on Miles Bridges, and besides that, there’s not much to look at offensively.
This is where Malik Monk steps up. Although most of last year was disappointing, he showed some major promise towards the end of the season
In the last nine games of the season, Monk had eight double-digit games, scoring over 20 in three of them. He might be streaky, but it’s clear that he can shoot the ball. In those nine games, he made three three-pointers or more in all except for one and didn’t miss a single free throw. Monk’s a gunslinger, and Charlotte needs him to start firing away. He’s a decent shot-creator already, his only problem is making those shots.
His 36% field goal average 6.7 points per game in 2018 did not wow anybody. However, Steve Clifford only played him 13.7 minutes a night, and never consistently. The hope is some extended burn will allow Monk to finally start playing well.
Kemba Walker’s future with the Charlotte Hornets is tied with their playoff hopes. The Hornets can’t afford to miss the 2019 NBA Playoffs. It’s a lot of pressure to place on a 20-year-old, but Monk has no choice but to shoulder it. If not, Kemba Walker may be gone for good.
Detroit Pistons: Reggie Jackson finds his jump shot.
The Pistons have a point guard problem. Reggie Jackson isn’t ideal, but he’s all they have, so they better hope he doesn’t disappoint again. Detroit obviously needs floor spacing to complement Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, and they don’t have enough of it.
Luke Kennard and Reggie Bullock are the only players who can be labeled as shooters. Langston Galloway isn’t special with a 34.4% last year, and Glenn Robinson III shot over 41% last year but on an extremely limited volume. Stanley Johnson may never even be an average shooter in the NBA. Other than that, the roster isn’t promising.
Thus, the need for Reggie Jackson to return to form. He’s never been an efficient player, with a career average of 43% from the field, but at least he was a respectable three-point shooter from 2015-17. He shot over 35% from three during that span, on decent volume. The Pistons don’t need him to be a sniper, they just can’t afford a repeat of the 30% clip he showed off in 2018. He had an injury-plagued year, and the hope is a healthy season will improve his stroke.
If Jackson could just get to league average, teams wouldn’t be comfortable leaving him open anymore. He could still do more to improve his passing and decision-making, and nobody should expect him to be consistent on either side of the ball. One thing at a time, however, and the emphasis should be on his shooting.
Trust Dwayne Casey to get Blake Griffin to work with Andre Drummond. They’re both above average passers, and if Drummond’s summer workout videos have any weight behind them, perhaps we’ll see him roam the perimeter. More importantly, they need decent shooting. If Reggie Jackson can start making threes again, the Pistons may be a dark horse candidate in the East
Conclusion
Obviously, there’s a surplus of teams, with two squads not getting their wish. To be frank, three out of four teams listed would be wise to blow their rosters up. The Pistons get a pass because we haven’t seen a full season of Blake and Drummond yet.
So then, what’s the result of this playoff race then? Which of these teams are left out? How many All-Stars will be on the move next offseason? Will it be Kemba Walker finally fleeing Charlotte? Or perhaps the Cavs come to their senses and move Love? Maybe it’s the Heat finally giving up on their roster. Whatever happens, it will affect every team in the league. Except for the Warriors, that is. That team probably doesn’t even pay attention to league transactions anymore.