When Josh Rosen was traded to the Dolphins during the draft, the immediate story was that three of the five QBs taken in the 2018 NFL Draft would be playing in the AFC East. Sam Darnold on the Jets, Josh Allen on the Bills, and the aforementioned Josh Rosen on the Dolphins, all playing for second. But, for the first time in a long time, it feels like playing for second in the AFC East is more than that. Tom Brady will eventually have to retire, and when he does, one of these three teams can step into that spotlight.
This year should be the biggest indicator of which team will fill that role. Quarterbacks in the NFL are expected to make a big leap between their first and second years. With three sophomores primed to take that jump, any of their teams can be next one up. The question is, which of the 2019 AFC East QBs is best primed for a breakout? Not only can they be a wildcard threat this season, but they could be a playoff contender for years to come.
The Case for Sam Darnold
Leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, all the QB prospects had their questions. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson had their pocket presence and accuracy. Josh Rosen had his mentality. Baker Mayfield had his height. Sam Darnold? His questions and nitpicks were few and far between. He played at a notable school and had the arm strength, accuracy, and leadership qualities to be an NFL QB.
Last year wasn’t necessarily a year to remember for Darnold and “Gang Green” in New York. He threw for 2,865 yards, 17 TDs, and 15 INTs in 13 games. His yards and touchdowns were below league-average, and his interceptions were tied for the second-most behind Ben Roethlisberger. All of this was done on the way to a 4-9 record for Darnold (4-12 for the Jets). With that said, there’s hope for Sam Darnold yet.
Enter Adam Gase.
Let’s bring our minds back to 2013-14 for a second. The Denver Broncos were one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history. Their offensive coaching staff was led by Adam Gase. He was the next “QB Guru” visionary who’d be able to play-design and help a franchise QB. He was expected to be the next Josh McDaniels to the next Tom Brady. Unfortunately for Gase, he found his way to Chicago with a declining Jay Cutler and then in Miami with an oft-injured Ryan Tannehill (and somehow Jay Cutler again). But, inside that mind of his is still the ideas that helped those Broncos re-write the record books.
On top of acquiring an offensive-minded HC, Darnold and the Jets are starting to get some talent. On offense, NY added RB Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder to help solidify a balanced attack. With Bell, Darnold has a safety blanket who can touch the ball 300-400 times a year. He can dump it off to him instead of trying to make something out of nothing, which was part of the reason he had 15 interceptions. Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, and Robby Anderson make up a nice, young WR trio that can learn with the QB.
And, on defense, they added two new defensive cornerstones in C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams. Mosley will take over as the #1 LB on the Jets defense after years of dominating the AFC North with Baltimore. He’ll bring athleticism and leadership to a defense that already has Jamal Adams behind him. Williams, who the Jets STOLE at third overall in this year’s draft, will make life a nightmare for opposing offensive lines alongside Leonard Williams and up-and-coming DE Henry Anderson.
Life’s looking a little easier in New York for Darnold these days. If he takes to the system quickly and learns how to use his new weapons (and the defense performs), he’ll likely find this year to be much kinder to him. With instability and question marks around the Dolphins and Bills, oddly enough, the Jets look like a decent situation for a young QB.
– Uncle Mike (@Mike_PerSources)
The Case for Josh Allen
Josh Allen didn’t have a great season, but then again he wasn’t expected to. Buffalo drafted him knowing he was a project and have used this offseason to allow for him to take the next step in 2019. Even though they didn’t land the big fish like the Jets did with Le’Veon Bell, they’ve quietly signed underrated starters who can immediately step right into the Bills’ offense.
Starting with the offensive line, they made former Chief, Mitch Morse the highest paid center in football. Morse has been an above-average center in Kansas City, anchoring that line for four years. He should immediately fill the void that’s been left since Eric Wood retired two years ago. Lining up next to Morse will be the 38th overall pick, Cody Ford. For now, the former Oklahoma tackle will play guard, but he has the flexibility to move around the line. Those two guys should help keep Allen rooted in the pocket and not constantly running for his life.
In addition to improving the O-Line, the Bills’ front office found affordable and overlooked weapons to fill the roster. Cole Beasley and John Brown will be day-one starters and should provide a veteran presence for the second-year QB. Brown was a 1,000-yard receiver in Arizona and was on pace to do so again in Baltimore before Lamar Jackson took over. Beasley has never eclipsed 1,000 yards, but in 2018 he was very effective on third down. He caught 17 passes for first downs, on third-down, tied for 14th in the league. That should improve Buffalo’s league-wide third worst third-down conversion percentage of 31.6%. Again, these are guys who aren’t viewed as elite-talents but fit perfectly for the Bills.
These don’t guarantee that Josh Allen will take that step in 2019 but having a supporting cast certainly goes a long way. I expect Josh Allen to have a similar spike that Carson Wentz had between his first two seasons. Wentz, who was dismissed as much as Allen following his rookie season, threw for 17 more TDs his second time around. I expect Allen to be in that ballpark after throwing 10 as a rookie.
– Matt Spirio AKA @MS_Persources on Instagram and Twitter.
The Case for Josh Rosen
Josh Rosen has a new team and a new coaching staff. That’s the main reason why he’ll have a breakout sophomore campaign in Miami. This offseason, the Patriots reportedly had interest in Rosen, and Miami’s offensive coordinator, Chad O’Shea, is the Patriots former receivers coach.
In pre-draft analysis, Rosen was touted as a lethal pocket passer that throws with good timing, sound familiar? O’Shea worked with a guy in New England that’s now arguably the league leader in those traits.
Coming with the new coaching staff is a franchise that believes in Rosen more than the Cardinals did. After drafting him in the first round and hiring Steve Wilks as HC, the Cardinals were ready to move on from both after just one year. Wilks was fired before the season was over.
Miami, on the other hand, is essentially buying into what they hope to be a short, successful reboot, featuring young talent at QB and promising young coaches (Brian Flores, Chad O’Shea) mixed with those with experience (Jim Caldwell).
There’s almost unquestionably more stability in Miami with a franchise entirely bought into a rebuild than Rosen had in Arizona. With his natural talent, a franchise bought in on rebuilding, and an offensive coordinator who’s system will only benefit him, Rosen will be the breakout sophomore in the AFC East.
– Coach (@CoachPerSources)