Predictions For The Libertadores’ Semifinals

By
PerSources Contributor
-
2018 libertadores semifinals predictions

The final four teams remaining were all major candidates when the Libertadores started. One could argue that River, Boca, Gremio, and Palmeiras are undoubtedly the top four teams in America and are deservedly in the semifinals. River will face off against Gremio, and Boca will go up against Palmeiras.

River Plate (ARG) Vs. Gremio (BRA)

What a matchup this will be. River and Gremio are playing lights out in this Libertadores, dispatching every opponent in sight. The thing to keep an eye out for in this series will be two similar styles of play colliding against each other. Neither team stands out because of high possession numbers, but rather on the damage they’re able to create when they do have the ball.

River is an extremely organized team with an ability to pressure the opposition all over the pitch. What they do best is transitioning from defense to offense after forcing turnovers from their rivals. Marcelo Gallardo knows what he’s doing. He created a system that works wonders for his players and is getting top form out of players like Santos Borre and Gonzalo Martinez, that used to be quite disliked by the fans.

Look at how quickly River transitions from defending in their own box to scoring a wonder goal on a 2-on-2.

Gremio is the Brazilian version of River (or River might be the Argentinean version of Gremio). As a team, Gremio is rock solid on defense, with Kannemann and Geromel at centre back and plenty of attacking talent in the form of Luan and Everton.

For the matchup, injuries might be key. Gremio has stars Luan and Everton doubtful for the first leg in the Monumental.

(Luan was ruled out by Manager Renato Gaucho, but he was spotted making the trip to Buenos Aires, so his status is up in the air. Gaucho might show some gamesmanship and also play Everton).

River is also dealing with a couple of minor injuries but are getting healthy at the right time. The physical status of key man Gonzalo Martinez has to be monitored, as he’s been banged up for a couple of weeks.

Another key feature of this matchup is that both teams feature top-notch goalkeepers. Gremio has Marcelo Grohe and River has Franco Armani. Both keepers have already won the Libertadores’ Cup (Armani with Atl. Nacional) and have proven to be nearly unbeatable in this edition.

This matchup will be worthy to (quoting Maradona) “watch while enjoying a cigar.” As of now, it’s imposible to tell which team will move on to the final, as both teams matchup so evenly.

For my predictions, I think the curse of the Libertadores’ reigning champ will live on, and River will beat Gremio, but they’ll have to fight with heart and soul in order to make it.

Boca Juniors (ARG) Vs. Palmeiras (BRA)

This is quite a different story from River vs. Gremio. Boca goes into this matchup in shaky form, having dropped behind in the Superliga and not playing their best football. On the other hand, Palmeiras are playing their best in some time, having won seven of their last eight and are currently sitting comfortably in first place in the Brasileirao Serie A, currently standing six points above second.

They already faced each other in the group stage, with the advantage going to Palmeiras (1-1 in the Allianz Parque, 0-2 in La Bombonera), but the context was much different then, with Boca not yet finding their starting XI, and Palmeiras struggling to start the season.

Even though on paper, Palmeiras seems the clear favorite to make it through to the finals, Boca has somewhat of a mystique in the Libertadores. The odds might be against them, but they just seem to find a way to move on. In the group stage, they were left for dead after the loss in La Bombonera against Palmeiras, but after a miracle in the final match they made it through to the elimination stage. Then against Cruzeiro, many expected Boca to lose out against a tough opponent, but los Xeneizes handled the Brazilian team rather easily.

For this matchup, Palmeiras will most likely go all out from the start, trying to overwhelm Boca with their direct attacking play. Boca will most likely play defensive throughout the series. Trying to contain Palmeiras’ creative players Dudu and Bruno Henrique with Wilmar Barrios and Nahitan Nandez in midfield.

In my opinion, in order to have the best chances to win, Boca should go all in on the counterattacks, putting speedsters Pavón and Sebastian Villa on the wings and Wanchope Abila up front, with Mauro Zárate a tad behind him.

The advantage Boca has is that they seem to matchup well with Palmeiras, as Carlos Izquierdoz and Magallan are specialists at containing physical #9’s like Borja, as proven in their series against Hernan Barcos (Cruzeiro’s #9). Also, Boca’s wingers Pavón and Villa are always willing to give a hand on defense, something key for containing Palmeiras’ attacks on the wings.

One thing Palmeiras can exploit is Boca’s complete futility to protect against set pieces. For example, the only danger Cruzeiro was able to generate on Boca came through corners or free kicks. Boca’s goalkeeper Agustin Rossi (the backup to injured Esteban Andrada) is extremely insecure on aerial balls. Palmeiras can capitalize on that.

My prediction is that Palmeiras will go out and give Boca all they have in La Bombonera. Palmeiras, having built a lead in the first leg, will play with Boca’s desperation in Brazil and make it to the finals. Still, I wouldn’t count out Boca just yet, as they’ve proven to be a tough out in the Libertadores.

Hit me up on Twitter or Instagram for any further debate!

IG: @casio_persources

Twitter: @casiopersources

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here